High Wind in California, May 6, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
300 AM PDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY AND COOL...WINDY
WEATHER TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. CONTINUED COOL WEDNESDAY...BUT
DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS. A WARMING TREND THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS MOVING INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY.
CLOUDS HAVE FILLED THE COASTAL BASIN UP TO THE MOUNTAIN BRIMS THIS
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN ALONG COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND
UP TO A TENTH INCH HAS FALLEN SO FAR IN CRESTLINE. MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS WILL GET GOING THIS MORNING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING ABOVE 40 MPH AT THE TOP SPOTS ON MOUNTAIN
CRESTS AND ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES. ALL THESE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. TODAY WE WILL HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
NEAR THE COAST WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES INLAND AND AGAINST THE
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE QUITE STRONG ALL DAY...EVEN IN THE
COASTAL BASIN...BEFORE TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST ARE LIKELY IN PARTS OF THE DESERTS. A SECOND WAVE OF
ENHANCED PRECIP WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING. THE
CHANCE IS SMALL BUT THERE. PRECIP TOTALS WILL BE LESS THAN A QUARTER
INCH IN THE COASTAL BASIN...AND PROBABLY LESS THAN A TENTH INCH AT
THE COAST. A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH IS EXPECTED IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT ISOLATED SPOTS COULD EXCEED THAT. SNOW LEVELS WILL
BE AROUND 5500 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON AND UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF
SNOW ARE EXPECTED ABOVE 7000 FEET. TEMPS WILL BE UNSEASONABLY LOW
TODAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 60S IN MOST AREAS. THE LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH MOVES OUT WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER...LESS WINDY...BUT
STILL PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TRIES TO
BUILD...BUT WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW PREVENT IT FROM
DOING SO THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WE WILL RETURN TO SEASONAL WEATHER
AND DEVELOP A MORE STANDARD MARINE LAYER OF MODERATE DEPTH. ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE THAT WELL...BUT A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE APPEARS TO AMPLIFY TO BRING WARMER WEATHER. IF YOU
LIKE THE EURO MODEL...SOME OFFSHORE FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE FOR A VERY WARM OUTLOOK. THE GFS ALSO BUILDS A
DECENT RIDGE...BUT WITHOUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER
IS A GOOD CONSENSUS AND IS OUR FORECAST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
060925Z...COAST/VALLEYS...MULTIPLE BKN-OVC STRATUS LAYERS BETWEEN
2000 FT MSL AND 6000 FT MSL AND ISOLATED-SCT -SHRA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. VSBY LOCALLY REDUCED TO 3-5SM IN SHOWERS AND HIGHER
TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES. STRATUS BECOMING SCT-BKN THIS
AFTERNOON. AREAS OF WEST SFC GUSTS 20 TO 30 KNOTS DEVELOPING
06/18Z-07/03Z...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND THE SAN DIEGO COUNTY
VALLEYS. WINDS DIMINISHING AFTER 07/03Z AND STRATUS BECOMING BKN-OVC
WITH BASES 2000-2500 FT MSL.

MTNS/DESERTS...COASTAL SLOPES MAINLY BELOW 6000 FEET OBSCURED IN
CLOUDS/FOG/-SHRA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF SFC WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 KNOTS IN RIVERSIDE/SAN DIEGO COUNTIES ALONG MTN CRESTS AND
ADJACENT DESERT SLOPES AND PASSES...WITH LOCAL 40 KNOT GUSTS IN
PARTS OF THE HIGH DESERT. STG-SVR UDDFS AND LLWS OVER AND E OF THE
MTNS POSSIBLE WITH THESE WINDS. ROTORS LIKELY VCNTY KPSP THROUGH
ABOUT 15-17Z. VSBY LOCALLY REDUCED TO 3SM OR LESS IN BLDU. WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
230 AM...A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA TODAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL PRODUCE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20-25 KT IN BOTH
THE COASTAL WATERS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT. GUSTS TO AROUND 35 KT
POSSIBLE IN THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...MAINLY THIS MORNING THROUGH
THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THESE STRONG WINDS AND A FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PRODUCE
COMBINED SEAS NEAR 10 FEET AND VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS IN THE OUTER
WATERS TODAY. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE
WARNING FOR THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS. SEE LAXMWWSGX FOR INFO.

&&

.SKYWARN...
SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED TUESDAY. SPOTTERS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE COACHELLA
     VALLEY...RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     DESERTS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR THE APPLE AND
     LUCERNE VALLEYS...SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY
     COASTAL AREAS...SAN DIEGO COUNTY VALLEYS...SANTA ANA
     MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE SAN DIEGO
     COUNTY COASTAL AREAS.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM PDT THIS EVENING
     FOR THE SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE
     INLAND EMPIRE.

PZ...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR THE WATERS
     FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER EXTENDING 30 TO
     60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

     GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
     THE WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER
     EXTENDING 30 TO 60 NM OUT INCLUDING SAN CLEMENTE ISLAND.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE COASTAL
     WATERS FROM SAN MATEO POINT TO THE MEXICAN BORDER AND OUT
     30 NM.

&&

PUBLIC...MM
AVIATION/MARINE...SS