Flood in Alaska, May 6, 2014

NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
216 AM AKDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 80N DIRECTLY NORTH OF PABR CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO NORTH TOWARD THE POLE WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND THE SOUTHERN YUKON BEGINS TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL YUKON AND SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BY TUESDAY
EVENING. THE FIRST OF SEVERAL SHORT WAVES CURRENTLY ALONG A PAGM
TO PALU TO LINE CONTINUES TO DRIVES EAST AND SOUTHEAST AND WILL BE
ALONG A PAFM TO PAMC LINE BY TUESDAY EVENING AND WILL STALL NEAR A
PABT TO PAMC LINE AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE BUILDING RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OUT OF
SIBERIA INTO THE BERING STRAIT THURSDAY MORNING.

SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVES CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER THE BERING STRAIT WITH SNOW NOTED ON RADAR AND IN OBS ACROSS
THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND KOTZEBUE SOUND. EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE WEST COAST NORTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA TODAY AND ALONG THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
INTO TONIGHT.

THE TWO COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON MONDAY HAVE ESSENTIALLY
MERGED AND LIE ALONG A NORTH TO SOUTH LINE FROM THE MACKENZIE
DELTA TO NEAR EAGLE AND THEN TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT ALONG AN
EAGLE TO FAIRBANKS TO MCGRATH LINE AND IS NOW LIFTING TO THE NORTH
AND WEST AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
THE FRONT THEN CONTINUES SOUTHWEST TO A SURFACE LOW JUST WEST OF
KODIAK ISLAND. A SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW NEAR KODIAK
STALLS ALONG A PARC TO PAMC LINE TODAY AND TONIGHT. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY IN THE BROOKS RANGE ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY ABOVE
2500 FT WITH ATIGUN PASS LIKELY TO PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MIN RH VALUES AGAIN PROGGED TO BE AT OR ABOVE 30 PERCENT FROM THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR WHILE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR MAY DIP TO AS LOW AS 25 PERCENT. WINDS IN
THESE AREAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ICE JAM FLOOD ADVISORY STILL IN EFFECT FOR CIRCLE WITH ICE JAM
STILL IN PLACE APPROXIMATELY 2 MILES DOWN RIVER FROM CIRCLE.
FREEZING LEVELS REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1500 FT OVER THE WESTERN
AND CENTRAL INTERIOR AND NEAR 5000 FT OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR.
RECENT RUNOFF RATES WILL DIMINISH WITH THE LOWER FREEZING LEVELS.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

CCC MAY 14