Hail and Damaging Winds in Utah, May 6 to 10, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1104 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A SLOW MOVING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM WILL
CLIP THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF UTAH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A COOL UPPER TROF REMAINS CENTERED TO OUR WEST THIS
MORNING WITH A CLOSED CIRCULATION OVER S CENTRAL NV. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED INTO WRN UT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THRU THE DAY. THE PRIMARY FORCING WITH THE
UPPER TROF REMAINS ALONG OUR WESTERN BORDER AND SHOULD STAY IN
THAT VICINITY UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN THE ENTIRE TROF SHIFTS EAST.

EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT THIS
AFTN MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE NRN MTNS. THIS WILL WANE A LITTLE THIS
EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

WINDS HAVE STARTED TO SHIFT TO MORE WLY ACROSS SWRN UT THIS
MORNING AND ARE NWLY ACROSS NWRN UT. SWLY WINDS WILL BECOME FAIRLY
STRONG ACROSS SRN AND ERN UT EAST OF ABOUT A KANAB TO EVANSTON
LINE. EXPECT SPEEDS TO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS BUT SHOULD BE
MOSTLY JUST UNDER CRITERIA. THE SWLY WINDS IN THE SWRN VALLEYS
HAVE ALSO INCREASED BUT SHOULD STAY ABOUT WHERE THEY ARE THE REST
OF TODAY.

STILL LOOKS LIKE PRECIP WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE
MTNS AND WEST ON WED AS THE UPPER TROF MOVES OVERHEAD.

UPDATED EARLIER TO MAKE SOME WIND ADJUSTMENTS AND LOWER MORNING
POPS ALL BUT NWRN UT. ALSO ADDED THUNDER TO MORNING WX GRIDS. NO
ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CIGS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE DURING THE DAY AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO HOVER AROUND 6000 FT AGL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. NORTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BUT THERE IS A 40
PERCENT CHANCE THAT SHOWERS DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF GUSTY AND/OR
ERRATIC WINDS. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM
DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A BROAD STORM SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER NEVADA THIS
MORNING WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SITTING OVER FAR NORTHWEST
UTAH. THIS TROUGH WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY AND TOMORROW
AND THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
TODAY AND PRIMARILY CONFINED TO WESTERN UTAH OVER AREAS NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SPREADS TO THE ENTIRE
DISTRICT TOMORROW AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES EASTWARD. HAVE CANCELLED
THE RED FLAG WARNING THIS MORNING AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE ALREADY
WELL ON THE RISE OVER WESTERN UTAH AND ARE NO LONGER ANTICIPATED TO
DROP BELOW CRITICAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
EXIT THE DISTRICT THURSDAY...THOUGH SOME PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
INTO THE MORNING. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH ON
FRIDAY...PRIMARILY IMPACTING NORTHERN UTAH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...WILENSKY
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
959 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014

UTZ001>016-019>021-517-518-WYZ021-071230-
CACHE VALLEY/UTAH PORTION-NORTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
SALT LAKE AND TOOELE VALLEYS-SOUTHERN WASATCH FRONT-
GREAT SALT LAKE DESERT AND MOUNTAINS-WASATCH MOUNTAIN VALLEYS-
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-WASATCH PLATEAU/BOOK CLIFFS-
WESTERN UINTA BASIN-CASTLE COUNTRY-SAN RAFAEL SWELL-
SANPETE/SEVIER VALLEYS-WEST CENTRAL UTAH-SOUTHWEST UTAH-
UTAHS DIXIE AND ZION NATIONAL PARK-SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH-
GLEN CANYON RECREATION AREA/LAKE POWELL-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS-SOUTHWEST WYOMING-
959 AM MDT TUE MAY 6 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF
UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THESE WINDS COULD CREATE LOCAL AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST AND ROUGH WATERS ON AREA LAKES. SHOWERS WILL
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE WESTERN OUTLOOK AREA TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OUTLOOK AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 6500 FEET.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/ (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR INFORMATION ON POTENTIAL ROAD TRAVEL IMPACTS VISIT...
HTTP://WWW.UDOTTRAFFIC.UTAH.GOV/ROADWEATHERFORECAST.ASPX