High Wind and Frost and Freeze in California, December 25 to 27, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
740 PM PST WED DEC 24 2014

.UPDATE FOR ISSUANCE OF WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
SJ VLY FOR XMAS DAY.

.SYNOPSIS... A FAST MOVING WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING. LIGHT RAIN...MOUNTAIN SNOW
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS STORM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REBUILD OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS FOR A RETURN TO
DRY WEATHER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE MODELS FORECAST A 115 KT
250 MB JET CENTERED ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY ON XMAS
DAY IN THE WAKE OF CURRENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL SUPPORT
WIND GUSTS ABOVE 35 MPH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SJ VLY AND HAS
PROMPTED ISSUANCE OF A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS REGION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 202 PM PST WED DEC 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PATCHY DENSE FOG DISSIPATING TODAY WITH CLOUDY SKIES NOW
DOMINATING THE REGION. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN AHEAD OF A STORM
CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. SURFACE FRONTAL
ANALYSIS HAS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHING UKIAH AT NEAR
NOON AND CONTINUING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. BASED ON THE SPEED OF THE
COLD FRONT...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE PRECIP WILL REACH THE
MERCED TO YOSEMITE AREA BEFORE 400 PM PST AND PUSH DEEP INTO THE
DISTRICT AFTER 400 PM PST. THE BULK OF THE PRECIP WITH THE HIGH
CHANCES OF MEASURABLE AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR AFTER SUNSET AND CONTINUE
FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT.

ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT IS A +120 KNOT JET MAX PUSHING
THROUGH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
THE JET MAX WILL PROVIDE BOTH THE JET MAX DYNAMIC LIFT TO ENHANCE
PRECIP PRODUCTION...AND THE NEEDED MOMENTUM FOR STRONG WINDS
ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. AT THE MOMENT...A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS OVER
THE KERN MOUNTAINS AS SNOW MAY REACH THE TEJON PASS OF THE
GRAPEVINE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. IN ADDITION...THE
STRONG WINDS WILL ALSO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS
THE MOJAVE DESERT WHERE WINDS WILL ALSO REACH 50 MPH AND BLOWING
DUST MAY BE POSSIBLE.

THE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY ON
CHRISTMAS WITH SHOWERY ACTIVITY ALONG THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
MOST OF KERN COUNTY/S PRECIP WILL OCCUR FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH
CHRISTMAS MORNING...AND MAY EVEN CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON AS
THE DISTRICT REMAINS UNSETTLED UNDER A CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN. THE
RIDGE WILL NOT TAKE HOLD OF THE DISTRICT UNTIL CLOSER TO THE END
OF THE WEEK. AT WHICH TIME...FOG WILL RETURN TO THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY AS WE GO INTO ANOTHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. BY EARLY
NEXT WEEK...THE RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND REACHES TOWARD THE ALASKA
REGION. THIS AMPLIFICATION WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE MERIDIONAL FLOW
PATTERN TO DEVELOP AND INTRODUCE VERY COLD AIR. WHILE THE CURRENT
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH IN COLD AIR THIS WEEKEND...ITS ORIGINS ARE
MARITIME. NEXT WEEKS COLD AIR WILL BE CONTINENTAL IN NATURE AND
MUCH COLDER...INTRODUCE A THREAT OF FREEZING CONDITIONS OVER THE
REGION. YET...CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW WITH THIS POSSIBLE SOLUTION
IN THE LONGER TERM. THEREFORE...WILL CONCENTRATE ON THE SHORT TERM
WITH THE HIGH IMPACT WINDS AND LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. OF FURTHER
NOTE...WHEN THE COLD AIR FILTERS IN NEXT WEEK...THE WEATHER
PATTERN INGREDIENTS MAY COME TOGETHER FOR A POSSIBLE MONO WIND
EVENT NEAR YOSEMITE ON AROUND TUESDAY MORNING. WILL MONITOR THE
SITUATION FOR ANY CHANGES IN THE WEATHER INGREDIENTS.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA...INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL IFR NEAR YOSEMITE PARK
IN PRECIPITATION WITH MOUNTAINS BECOMING OBSCURED THIS EVENING
BECOMING MAINLY IFR IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS OVERNIGHT. IN THE KERN
COUNTY MOUNTAINS...STRONG GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING TONIGHT AFTER 03Z
THU WITH AREAS OF IFR IN MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AFTER 06Z THU. IN THE
KERN COUNTY DESERT...HIGH WINDS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z THU. IN THE SAN
JOAQUIN VALLEY AND SIERRA FOOTHILLS...AREAS OF MVFR VISIBILITY IN
PRECIPITATION THRU 12Z THU. OTHERWISE...VFR WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE IN
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
.END..
&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 12-24       70:1964     39:1933     55:1892     20:1990
KFAT 12-25       72:1902     38:1908     54:1983     20:1987
KFAT 12-26       70:1892     38:1908     55:1983     21:1987

KBFL 12-24       75:1964     39:1993     57:1979     13:1905
KBFL 12-25       76:1902     32:1918     56:1977     21:1899
KBFL 12-26       71:1999     35:1918     56:1977     20:1905
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM PST THURSDAY CAZ095.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM PST THURSDAY CAZ095-098-099.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 4 PM PST THURSDAY CAZ089-091.

&&

PUBLIC...DURFEE/RILEY
AVN/FW...DURFEE
PREV DISCUSSION...MOLINA
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD