High Wind in Arizona, November 16, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
205 AM PST SUN NOV 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO INVADE THE REGION
SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA. CLEAR SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES
OUTSIDE OF THE LOWEST DESERT ELEVATIONS MONDAY MORNING BEFORE
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY WARM NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS ZIPPED SOUTH THIS EVENING AND IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF NEVADA WITH BULLHEAD CITY OBSERVING A
NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH SHORTLY AFTER 1AM MST.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHWARD JOURNEY THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE EVENING WITH A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS INVADING THE SOUTHERN
GREAT BASIN AND MOJAVE DESERT IN ITS WAKE.  TEMPERATURES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM MUCH DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
THANKS TO PERSISTENT COLD ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 10 TO
15 DEGREES COOLER THAN HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND WHEN COMBINED
WITH THE GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...IT WILL CERTAINLY FEEL CHILLY.

SPEAKING OF WINDS...ONGOING WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA LOOK GOOD AND WINDY CONDITIONS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THOSE AREAS. WIDESPREAD
GUSTY WINDS ELSEWHERE INCLUDING THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BUT MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 40 MPH BEFORE
DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT ATTENTION WILL SHIFT TO LOW TEMPERATURES. CLEARING
SKIES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT PARTS OF MOHAVE
COUNTY AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE MOJAVE DESERT ZONES IN CALIFORNIA WILL
MEET FREEZE CRITERIA BY MONDAY MORNING. LESS CONFIDENT ON THE LOWER
ELEVATION ZONES OF SOUTHERN NEVADA INCLUDING THE LAKE MEAD
RECREATION AREA AND THE LAS VEGAS VALLEY.  HOWEVER...WHILE THE METRO
AND LOWER ELEVATION ZONES NEAR LAKE MEAD WILL LIKELY ONLY COOL TO
BETWEEN 34-40F...METRO OUTSKIRTS AND SHELTERED AREAS CERTAINLY MAY
OBSERVE THEIR FIRST FREEZE OF THE SEASON JUSTIFYING AN UPGRADE TO A
WARNING.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY COMPARED TO SUNDAY BUT
WILL STILL AVERAGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER COLORADO RIVER VALLEY BUT SHOULDNT BE
NEARLY AS STRONG AS OBSERVED SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...LOOKS LIKE A VERY
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THIS TIME FRAME. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT DEPICTING A MID/UPPER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE AREA TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO MONDAY. MODELS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE SOMEWHAT AFTER THAT BUT OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE
SOME SORT OF WEAKENING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW I KEPT A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS LIMITED TO THE SIERRA WHICH IS IN LINE WITH MODEL QPF.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES. IT LOOKS LIKE
A DIRTY RIDGE WILL TRAVERSE THE AREA ROUGHLY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT PLENTY OF HIGH CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN INYO...ESMERALDA INTO CENTRAL NYE
COUNTY FRIDAY SPREADING INTO LINCOLN AND MOHAVE COUNTIES FRIDAY
NIGHT. IN ADDITION...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE
SPRING MOUNTAINS AND SHEEP RANGE FRIDAY NIGHT. THAT SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE QUICKLY EAST LATER FRIDAY NIGHT BUT IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY. THE MODELS DIFFER
CONSIDERABLY WITH THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE AND FOR NOW I KEPT JUST
VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY LOOK TO REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR MCCARRAN...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNRISE GENERALLY BETWEEN 330 AND 030 DEGREES AND
OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 35 KTS. WINDS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY MORE NORTHEASTERLY BEFORE WANING IN THE EVENING.  WINDS
WILL MOST CLOSELY FAVOR CONFIG 3.

FOR THE REST OF SOUTHERN NEVADA...NORTHWEST ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST
CALIFORNIA...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE DESERT THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STRONG WINDS WILL BE
FUNNELED DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY WHERE GUSTS MAY EXCEED 45
KTS AT TIMES. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE GUSTS BETWEEN 25-35 KTS WILL BE
MORE COMMON. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED AREAWIDE.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT
ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING
PROCEDURES.
&&

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...OUTLER
LONG TERM...HARRISON

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