Flash Flood and Heavy Snow in Arizona, March 1 to 2, 2014

Name: Flash Flood and Heavy Snow in Arizona, March 1 to 2, 2014
Start: 2014-03-01T12:00
End: 2014-03-02T05:00
Location: Arizona

March 1 to 2, 2014 · NWS TWC · 5 events in 4 counties and zones

A winter storm impacted Southern Arizona on the first day of March. S.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 1
Injuries: 1
Property damage: $91,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

A winter storm impacted Southern Arizona on the first day of March. A strong low pressure system off the California coast opened up and dropped through the base of the trough over the southwest U.S. Interaction of this system with an atmospheric river from the Pacific helped push precipitable water values above the 99th percentile for March. Strong winds along the backside of a line of strong showers caused some wind damage, while the second round of rainfall caused flash flooding in Pima and Santa Cruz Counties. The mountain ranges north and east of Tucson received several inches of snow above 7000 feet.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 1, 9:25 AM MST, 2 hours 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 1, 9:25 AM MST, 2 hours 35 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
925 AM MST SAT MAR 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT...
THEN PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST SUNDAY. STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO OCCUR THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER...DRY
CONDITIONS WITH A WARMING TREND WILL PREVAIL DURING THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS 30-50 DBZ
ECHOES GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A KITT PEAK-TUCSON-SAN CARLOS
RESERVOIR LINE AT 1620Z. MUCH OF THE REST OF SE AZ WAS VOID OF
PRECIP ECHOES AT THIS TIME. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO
OCCURRED DURING ABOUT THE PAST 30 MINS. AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP HAS
GREATLY INCREASED DURING THE PAST 1-2 HOURS. DEWPOINTS VALID 16Z
RANGED FROM THE MID 20S NEAR KDUG TO AROUND 50 F ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY. 01/12Z KTWC SOUNDING TOTAL PRECIP WATER VALUE WAS NEAR 0.90
INCH...AN INCREASE OF NEARLY 0.30 INCH DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS.
01/12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS INDICATED 538 DM LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. A VERY TIGHT MID-LEVEL
GRADIENT WAS ACROSS SE AZ...WITH 700 MB 50 KT OBSERVED WIND SPEED AT
KTWC.

AREAL COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS PER THE 01/14Z RUC HRRR. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP IS PROGGED TO EXPAND FROM GENERALLY FROM THE TUCSON METRO
EWD/SWD...QUITE SIMILAR TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DEPICTION OF
PRECIP. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO OCCUR GIVEN THE MODEST CAPE
ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW LEVELS AS PER RAWS OBSERVATIONS AND DUAL POL
RADAR YIELDED ABOUT 8500-9000 FEET. THESE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
VERY GRADUALLY FALL TO NEAR 7500-8000 FEET FROM THE CATALINA
MOUNTAINS NEWD TO THE WHITE MOUNTAINS BY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE
ONGOING PRECIP...BELIEVE HIGH TEMPS FROM TUCSON WWD ARE REASONABLE.

THE UPSHOT...THERE ARE NO CHANGES FORTHCOMING TO THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR
FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE
AS DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUED TO ADVECT INTO ARIZONA AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING.
RECENT MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PIMA COUNTY. STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM ENTERS SOUTHEASTERN CALIFORNIA.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TODAY TO 10 AM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 7000 FEET FOR
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS OF GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES...AND THE
GALIURO/PINALENO MOUNTAINS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TODAY TO 10 AM MST SUNDAY ABOVE 7000
FEET FOR THE CATALINA/RINCON MOUNTAINS. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WITHIN THESE ZONES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 7 INCHES IN THE
SOUTHERN MOST MOUNTAINS TO 22 INCHES ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 8000-8500 FEET BY MIDDAY TODAY THEN LOWER
TO AROUND 6500 FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE
PRECIPITATION...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORM
TODAY ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON. THAT SAID...A WIND ADVISORY ALSO IS
IN EFFECT THROUGH 4 PM MST TODAY FOR SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY WHERE
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL END BY SUNDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THE REST OF THE WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES COOLER VERSUS
TEMPERATURES OBSERVED YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...THEN ANOTHER 2-6 DEGREES
OF COOLING SUNDAY. A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/18Z.
VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FROM
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ESPECIALLY
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN DUE TO CLOUDS/PRECIP. ISOLATED -TSRA WILL ALSO
OCCUR TODAY. SURFACE WIND THRU THIS EVENING GENERALLY SWLY/WLY AT
12-25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 KTS. HOWEVER...EVEN STRONGER WIND
SPEEDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHERN COCHISE COUNTY THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE KDUG TERMINAL MAY EXPERIENCE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-35
KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 KTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO
MOSTLY LESS THAN 12 KTS LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...VALLEY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY...THEN SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED MAINLY TO
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. STRONG AND
GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS ACROSS COCHISE COUNTY SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR DUE TO THE AMPLE
MOISTURE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND
MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM MST
    SUNDAY FOR AZZ510-511 ABOVE 7000 FEET.

    WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM MST
    SUNDAY FOR AZZ514 ABOVE 7000 FEET.

    WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AZZ507-508-
    512-513.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 59 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:57 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 heavy rain, 1 high wind, 1 strong wind, 1 heavy snow, 1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Heavy Rain, Cochise

When: March 1, 12:00 PM MST to 1:00 PM MST
Where: Cochise County, 31.94 mi W of Sunnyside
Deaths: 0 direct, 1 indirect
Injuries: 0 direct, 1 indirect
Property damage: $15,000
Reported by: Newspaper
Coordinates: 31.450, -110.971

Heavy rain was determined to be the cause of a 1-vehicle accident involving two women at Kilometer 15 on 1-19 in Rio Rico. The car drifted to the left into the center median at approximately 1215 MST and struck a tree. One woman was killed and the other was seriously injured.

High Wind, Tucson Metro Area

When: March 1, 4:20 PM MST to 4:25 PM MST
Where: Tucson Metro Area forecast zone
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) measured gust
Property damage: $1,000
Reported by: AWOS
Coordinates: 32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A non-thunderstorm wind gust of 58 mph was measured at Ryan Airfield. Around the same time, shingles were blown off of a roof about 3 miles to the east north east of Ryan Airfield, with sustained winds of 37 mph (measured) gusting to approximately 55 mph.

Strong Wind, Tucson Metro Area

When: March 1, 5:25 PM MST to 5:35 PM MST
Where: Tucson Metro Area forecast zone
Measured: 43 kt (49 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $75,000
Reported by: Broadcast Media
Coordinates: 32.097, -111.790 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Strong winds estimated at about 50 mph brought down a 30-foot tall saguaro on top of a carport at a residence in Green Valley. One of the cactus arms rolled into the street and another landed against a neighboring house. Heavy rain of more than one inch during the previous 24 hours likely loosened up the soil enough that the wind blew the cactus over. There was extensive damage to the carport, and 3 vehicles, including a golf cart, an SUV, and a vintage Cadillac.

Heavy Snow, Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains

When: March 1, 8:00 PM MST to March 2, 5:00 AM MST
Where: Galiuro and Pinaleno Mountains forecast zone
Reported by: Park/Forest Service
Coordinates: 32.572, -110.328 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heavy snowfall occurred on the higher peaks of the Pinaleno Mountains. 12 to 24 of snowfall occurred on Mt. Graham at elevations between 9000 and 10,000 feet.

Flash Flood, Santa Cruz

When: March 1, 8:50 PM MST to March 2, 12:00 AM MST
Where: Santa Cruz County, 2.41 mi NW of Sonoita to 3.7 mi ESE of Madera Canyon
Cause: Heavy Rain
Reported by: Law Enforcement
Coordinates: 31.703, -110.681

Multiple periods of heavy rain which fell during the late afternoon and evening hours causing flash flooding near Apache Springs Ranch. Law enforcement reported fast moving water that was 35 feet across flowing near Forest Service Road 4084. There was also a report of several people stranded on the other side of this flowing water in Gardner Canyon.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

Event	Date	Age	Sex	Where	Kind
Heavy Rain, Cochise	2014-03-01	52	Female	Vehicle/Towed Trailer	Indirect

What these are

Heavy Rain: Rainfall totals unusual for the place and season that did not produce a flood.
High Wind: Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Strong Wind: Non-thunderstorm winds below high wind criteria that nonetheless caused damage or casualties.
Heavy Snow: Snowfall reaching the local warning threshold without the other hazards of a winter storm.
Flash Flood: Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Arizona in 2014 Every state in 2014 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, March 2014

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 508174, 507905, 508645, 492829, 509092.