Drought in Texas, March 1 to 31, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1148 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

.AVIATION...
A FRONT HAS SAGGED THROUGH KCDS WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS IN ITS
WAKE. THIS FRONT MAY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO KLBB TOWARD 11-12Z.
CONDITIONS SHOULD STAY VFR AT KLBB...BUT KCDS IS LIKELY TO SEE LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP AROUND THIS SAME TIME...WITH IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THESE SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
AT KCDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE THE CLOUDS/FOG
LIFT/SCATTER AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURN DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
HOWEVER...CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING BEHIND
A STRONGER FRONTAL SURGE. KLBB WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
TAF CYCLE...BUT WILL SEE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS MATERIALIZE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE DECREASING IN THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014/

UPDATE...
A WEAK FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF BACK-DOORING INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHEAST...WITH CHILDRESS AND NORTHFIELD ALREADY EXPERIENCING
LIGHT EASTERLY BREEZES. THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
SOUTHWESTWARD PUSH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL STALLING OVER
THE CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...THEN RETREATING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND THE FRONT...LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO TAP INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ALONG THE RED RIVER
VALLEY. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO FALL AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES...THE PROSPECTS FOR FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES...LIKELY AFTER 09Z. THIS LOW CLOUD AND
FOG DECK COULD ADVANCE AS FAR WESTWARD AS ROUGHLY A DIMMITT TO
PLAINVIEW TO ASPERMONT LINE BY MID-MORNING BEFORE
THINNING...LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT. GIVEN THIS...WE HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST TO INCLUDE AREAS OF FOG ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA IN THE 09-16Z TIME-FRAME. EARLY
ON...SKY GRIDS WERE DECREASED GIVEN THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CURRENTLY IN PLACE...BUT WERE BOOSTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES
AFTER 09Z AS THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO FILL IN. ASIDE
FROM THE WEATHER AND SKY GRIDS...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE ALSO MADE
TO THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT AND RH GRIDS. THE UPGRADED PRODUCTS
HAVE BEEN SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 556 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014/

UPDATE...
WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DECREASE EARLY THIS EVENING BRINGING
AN END TO THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE SOUTH
PLAINS REGION. THUS...THE RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 00Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...
FOLLOWING A COMPACT S/W TROUGH THAT GENERATED TSTORMS IN PARTS OF
THE TX PANHANDLE LAST NIGHT...THE AXIS OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS HAVE
SINCE EXITED THE FORECAST AREA ON SCHEDULE. THESE WINDS DID RESULT
IN A BIT MORE DRAMA THAN EXPECTED THANKS TO A 59 MPH GUST AS
MEASURED BY THE GRAHAM WEST TX MESONET...BUT AS A WHOLE THE BLOWING
DUST THIS MORNING WAS NOTHING UNUSUAL FOR THE HARDY RESIDENTS THAT
FREQUENT THESE PARTS.

ALREADY BY SUNSET...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE EDGING SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN PANHANDLE WELL AHEAD OF A BROODING ARCTIC HIGH
STILL POISED IN THE WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. DO BELIEVE THE
NON-RUC GUIDANCE IS TOO CONSERVATIVE WITH THIS FRONT/S PROGRESS
TONIGHT...SO HAVE EDGED LOW TEMPS DOWN A BIT ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
OF THE HIGHWAY 84 CORRIDOR WHERE THE RUC HAS THIS BOUNDARY ROUGHLY
STALLING BY DAYBREAK. THIS BOUNDARY HOWEVER WILL RETREAT BY LATE
MORNING AS WINDS ALOFT BACK SWLY AND AMPLIFY MODESTLY AHEAD OF
SUNDAY/S UPPER TROUGH. AS WE SAW TODAY...EARLIER MODELS WERE MUCH
TOO MOIST WITH 2M DEWPOINTS...BUT THIS WAS EXPECTED IN PRIOR
FORECASTS AND WE CONTINUE TO EMPLOY THIS RATIONALE WITH TOMORROW/S
SETUP BEHIND THE RETREATING FRONT. NUDGED HIGHS UP A FEW DEGREES ON
THE CAPROCK WHERE THE DRIEST AIR WILL BE FOUND AND THIS WILL ALSO
RESULT IN SOME FIRE WX CONCERNS...ALTHOUGH NOT TO THE DEGREE THAT WE
SAW TODAY.

LONG TERM...
BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE BY LATE SATURDAY.  WHAT IS
CURRENTLY A WOUND-UP SPIRAL OFF THE COAST WILL BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH
FROM THE GREAT BASIN TO BAJA. NORTH OF THE BORDER...A COMPLEX
ELONGATED LOW SPANNING MUCH OF CANADA IS LATITUDINALLY ORIENTED
AROUND 55N. MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE WEST COAST TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH ON SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY A MORE SUBTLE EMBEDDED
TROUGH INTO MONDAY. ON WEDNESDAY...YET ANOTHER TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHES AND STARTS TO DEEPEN BEFORE DIVING INTO THE GULF COAST
SATES LATE WEEK. OUR FINAL TROUGH OF THE EXTENDED APPROACHES ON
FRIDAY.

YET ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SNEAKS INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY
MAKING FCST HIGHS QUITE TRICKY AS THE BOUNDARY HANGS UP FOR SEVERAL
HOURS ACROSS THE CWFA.  THEN...WITH THE FALL OF NIGHT...THE COLDER
AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO THE REGION.  OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE THERE
IS SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION.

MONDAY SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND QUITE COOL BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS UP
ON TUESDAY QUICKLY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES THOUGH PERHAPS REMAINING
A FEW DEGREES SHY OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING HELPING TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN ONE
MORE DAY BEFORE SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW PICKS UP FOR THURSDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF FIRE WEATHER LATE NEXT WEEK.
YET ANOTHER PUSH OF COLD AIR ENTERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER AWARENESS DAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND MUCH OF THE ROLLING PLAINS. THE STRONGEST WINDS
HAVE SINCE DEPARTED THE REGION...BUT 20-FOOT SPEEDS OF 20-25 MPH
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 6 PM AT WHICH POINT THE RED FLAG WARNING SHOULD
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND SHIFT WILL
PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS
BEFORE RETREATING NORTHEAST BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ELEVATED TO
MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ON THE CAPROCK AS SOUTHWEST WINDS RISE TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH MIN RH
VALUES FALLING INTO THE LOWER-TO-MID TEENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        36  75  32  34  12 /   0   0  20  30  10
TULIA         37  75  25  29  10 /   0   0  20  20  10
PLAINVIEW     39  77  27  32  11 /   0   0  10  20  10
LEVELLAND     39  80  33  45  15 /   0   0  10  20  10
LUBBOCK       38  80  29  40  14 /   0   0  10  20  10
DENVER CITY   44  79  36  54  20 /   0   0  10  20  10
BROWNFIELD    42  80  34  46  18 /   0   0  10  20  10
CHILDRESS     37  68  24  25  10 /   0   0  10  20  10
SPUR          39  80  25  34  13 /   0   0  10  20  10
ASPERMONT     39  83  25  31  12 /   0   0  20  20  10

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

23/33/23

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
620 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

TXZ021>044-020030-
PARMER-CASTRO-SWISHER-BRISCOE-HALL-CHILDRESS-BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-
FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
YOAKUM-TERRY-LYNN-GARZA-KENT-STONEWALL-
620 PM CST FRI FEB 28 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NON-PRECIPITATION

AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AND ROLLING PLAINS BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ELEVATED TO OCCASIONALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CAPROCK AND SOUTHERN
ROLLING PLAINS. BY SUNDAY MORNING...A MIX OF LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE FROM THE FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO THE NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS. LIGHT WINTRY ACCUMULATIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE.