Drought in Arizona, December 1 to 31, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST SUN NOV 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COUPLE OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND AGAIN
NEXT WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...01/03Z SFC TEMPS RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 60S
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF HIGHER ELEVATIONS. KTUS WAS REPORTING A
TEMPERATURE OF 61 AFTER REACHING A HIGH OF 76 THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROF WHICH BROUGHT SOME CIRRUS AND ELEVATED WINDS TO
THE AREA TODAY HAS MOVED NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION LEAVING CLEAR
SKIES IN ITS WAKE. SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER ARIZONA TO
KICK OFF THE FINAL MONTH OF 2014...WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUING THRU THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND TEMPERATURES
VERY NEAR WHAT WAS OBSERVED TODAY. CLOUD COVER IS THEN EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF A SOMEWHAT STRONGER TROF TOMORROW EVENING AND
TOMORROW NIGHT. INHERITED FORECAST LOOKS TO HANDLE THESE FEATURES
WELL...SO NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC CONDITIONS WITH PERHAPS A FEW
CIRRUS AOA 25K FT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THEN INCREASING MAINLY
HIGH CLOUDS MONDAY EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. SFC WINDS DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. A STORM SYSTEM PASSING NORTH OF THE AREA
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SHOWERS LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LOW OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST TODAY WILL
ENHANCE THE RIDGING SOME TOMORROW AS IT MOVES ONSHORE. THIS SHOULD
HELP KEEP SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA DRY FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE
DAY...THOUGH COULD BEGIN TO SEE SOME SPRINKLES LATE TUESDAY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OF TUCSON.

AROUND THIS TIME THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE PUSHED OFF TO THE EAST
AS FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE SLIDES IN. THE LOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY
BE RELATIVELY DRY THOUGH MOISTURE ALOFT WILL HELP. GIVEN THE TOP
DOWN MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE LATTER SHOULD BE THE BEST SHOWER ACTIVITY
AREA WIDE...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN EARLIER.

ON WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL OPEN UP AS IT COMES ONSHORE ACROSS
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AS NOT MUCH MORE THAN A WEAK IMPULSE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH TIME. THIS WILL ALLOW THINGS TO
DRY BACK OUT.

HOWEVER...NEXT WEEKEND MID RANGE GUIDANCE HAS COME IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH...WHICH COULD
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE. THAT BEING SAID...THE TIMING OF
SAID TROUGH DIFFERS WIDELY BETWEEN GUIDANCE. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND THE FORECAST TO THE ECM AS IT REMAINS THE MOST CONSISTENT.

OTHERWISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE ARE EXPECTED TO STICK AROUND
UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.
THOUGH...THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURE WILL SEE SOME RELIEF THANKS
TO THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FAIR AS WELL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

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DISCUSSION...FRENCH
AVIATION...FRENCH
FIRE WEATHER...90
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEADOWS