Drought in New Mexico, December 1 to 31, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1057 PM MST SUN NOV 30 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER ALL BUT NE PLAINS WHERE LCL MVFR
CIGS ARE POSSIBLE BEHIND A SHALLOW BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THESE LOW
CLOUDS WILL FAVOR THE NE PLAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE
DE CRISTO MTNS. LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY BEHIND THE
FRONT. A BRIEF AND WEAK EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND MAY DEVELOP AT KSAF
AND KABQ BTWN 10Z-15Z MONDAY AS THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MASS SQUIRTS
THROUGH GLORIETA PASS AND TIJERAS CANYON. LCL MVFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE AROUND MID MORNING. AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH SHIFT EWD
THIS AFTERNOON...LIGHT AND VRBL WINDS WILL BE THE RULE AT ALL
TERMINALS TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KLVS WHERE SOUTH WIND GUSTS
TO 15 KTS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...825 PM MST SUN NOV 30 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO DECREASE 1ST PERIOD SKY COVER BASED ON TRENDS
IN LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK. NEW
SUITE OF PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM MST SUN NOV 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL COOL HIGHS DOWN BY 25 TO 35 DEGREES ON MONDAY. THE WEST WILL BE
A BIT COOLER MONDAY BUT RELATIVELY WARM FOR THE FIRST OF DECEMBER.
TEMPERATURES REBOUND IN THE EAST TUESDAY...AS CLOUDS START TO INVADE
THE WEST. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASE BY WEDNESDAY MAINLY OVER
WESTERN NEW MEXICO AS MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST. ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAIN PEAKS. ANOTHER FRONT IN THE PLAINS COULD COOL DOWN HIGHS
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LINGERING STRONGER WIND GUSTS EXPIRED RIGHT ABOUT ON SCHEDULE
LATE THIS MORNING WITH SOME BREEZES PERSISTING THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THE THICKER AND MORE WIDESPREAD CIRRUS THAN EXPECTED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES DON/T APPEAR TO HAVE TAKEN TOO MUCH OF A HIT.

MONDAY NIGHT LOWS AND TUESDAY HIGHS A CHALLENGE ACROSS THE EAST.
THERE REMAINS A DRAMATIC WARMUP FOR SOME AREAS TUESDAY AS A SURFACE
LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS...BUT SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
GUIDANCE NOTED...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHS OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS.
ENDED UP LEANING TOWARD THE COOLER MET AND ECS.

FOR MIDWEEK...THE WEDNESDAY FRONT SEEMS TO MAKE MORE PROGRESS SOUTH
AND WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS THAN PROGGED 24 HOURS AGO. TWEAKED HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHEAST DOWN A BIT. GFS NEARLY TOTALLY DRY NOW
FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD...WHILE ECMWF AND NAM ARE MUCH WETTER.
HEDGING TOWARDS THE WETTER VERSIONS BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
TO OUR WEST ON TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW SHOULD
BE CONFINED TO THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AS H7 TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE
FREEZING OVERALL. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTDVD BEFORE DEW POINTS RISE.

FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A
MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM PASSING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER NEW MEXICO.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS KNOCKING ON THE DOORSTEP THIS AFTERNOON.AS
OF 2 PM...THE FRONT JUST ARRIVED IN CLAYTON...DROPPING THE TEMP TO
54 DEGREES. HOWEVER...COLDER AIR IS COMING AS SPRINGFIELD COLORADO
IS ALREADY DOWN TO 29 DEGREES. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...DROPPING LOW TEMPS 20 DEGREES FROM THIS
MORNINGS READINGS. THUS...HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE THE
HIGHEST THAT THEY HAVE BEEN IN DAYS...WITH GOOD TO EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES ACROSS THE EAST...AND FAIR TO GOOD RECOVERIES ACROSS THE
WEST.

MODELS ARE STILL NOT BULLISH ON BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  THOUGH IF IT DID MANAGE TO SQUEEZE
THROUGH...IT WOULD BE PRETTY WEAK. THEREFORE...THE BIGGEST IMPACT
WILL BE FELT ACROSS THE EAST ON MONDAY WHEN HIGH TEMPS ARE UP TO 35
DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAYS READINGS...AND 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.  MEANWHILE...AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE FIRST METEOROLOGICAL DAY OF
WINTER. WITH LOW MIXING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EAST AND WEAK TRANSPORT
WINDS ACROSS THE WEST...VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO BE POOR JUST
ABOUT AREAWIDE. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT.

THE COOL DOWN SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL
QUICKLY TAKE SHAPE ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING DOWNSLOPE WINDS TO WARM THE
EAST BACK ABOVE NORMAL. THEREAFTER...A LARGE CLOSED LOW APPROACHING
THE NORTHERN CALI COAST WILL BRING MORE CLOUDINESS TO NM. AS
TOP-DOWN MOISTENING OCCURS...AND THE STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EASTWARD
AND DAMPENS...DEWPOINTS AND HUMIDITIES WILL RISE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST TUESDAY NIGHT. A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP TUES NIGHT ACROSS THE WEST AND CONTINUE AND
PERHAPS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST
NM...GENERALLY ALONG/WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE AS WELL AS THE TIMING
AND PLACEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE FLOW.
HOWEVER...GIVEN PWATS OVER 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL IN THE SOURCE
REGION...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE MOIST SIDE OF GUIDANCE.
MEANWHILE...ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THOUGH NOT AS COLD...WILL
SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY INCREASE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON THURSDAY...THOUGH MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE MAP WITH
REGARDS TO PLACEMENT. THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A STRONGER SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST GFS HAS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...SUGGESTING A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM...BUT ONE THAT WOULD GIVE PRECIP TO MUCH OF THE
AREA...GENERALLY BETWEEN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING.
LOOKS LIKE SNOW LEVELS WOULD BE PRETTY HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM...GENERALLY AOA 8000 FT.

OTHERWISE...VENTILATION IMPROVES A BIT ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE WEST
AND PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL NM...GENERALLY INTO THE FAIR TO GOOD
CATEGORIES. FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION WILL BE THE RULE ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM AGAIN...THOUGH THE EAST WILL
DROP BACK TO POOR.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014

NMZ501>540-011300-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS-FAR NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-
NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS-WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU-WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS-
SAN FRANCISCO RIVER VALLEY-SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS-JEMEZ MOUNTAINS-
WEST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET/RED RIVER-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 9500 FEET-
EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LOWER CHAMA RIVER VALLEY-SANTA FE METRO AREA-ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS-UPPER TULAROSA VALLEY-
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-RATON RIDGE/JOHNSON MESA-
FAR NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-UNION COUNTY-
HARDING COUNTY-EASTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY-GUADALUPE COUNTY-
QUAY COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY-SOUTHWEST CHAVES COUNTY-
534 AM MST SUN NOV 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING WILL TAPER OFF THROUGH NOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WEATHER CAN
CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND
WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GUYER