Drought in California, December 1 to 31, 2014

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
249 PM PST SUN NOV 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL EXIT THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION MONDAY BEFORE A MUCH STRONGER
STORM SYSTEM MOVES IN TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW...LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PER LATEST RADAR DATA...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
MOVING OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE SJ VALLEY AND INTO THE ADJACENT
SIERRA FOOTHILLS FROM FRESNO COUNTY AND NORTHWARD. A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS REMAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING OVER NORTHERN CA.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WILL BRING SOME CLEARING FOR THE CWA
BY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS
THE STORM ARRIVES TO CENTRAL CA ON TUESDAY. SOME GUSTY WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY JUST AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST
RAIN TO OCCUR ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS MUCH OF THE
MOISTURE WILL STREAM OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA DURING THIS
TIME...THERE IS A ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REGION. IN ADDITION...ON BOTH TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THERE REMAINS A FLOODING OR DEBRIS FLOW CONCERN DUE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND BURN SCAR AREAS.

ON WEDNESDAY EXPECT MORE SHOWERY WEATHER AS THE STORM MOVES
INLAND. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PARTS OF THE SJ VALLEY AND ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS ATMOSPHERE
WILL BE FAIRLY UNSTABLE AND REMAIN QUITE MOIST...ESPECIALLY IF
PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS BRIEFLY. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY ESPECIALLY NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY DEVELOP.

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN COULD CONTINUE AT TIMES ON THURSDAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...HOWEVER FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES QUITE
A BIT BY THIS TIME. MODELS KEEP A MAINLY WESTERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF
CALIFORNIA...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CLIPPING
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY DECEMBER. HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
MAINLY SLIGHT CHANCE...OR BASICALLY CLIMO POPS...FOR THIS TIME
FRAME. AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY SIGNIFICANT HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
DEVELOPING OVER THE WEST COAST DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS...SO WILL
HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SJ VALLEY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL
IFR VISIBILITIES IN HAZE AND BR. IN THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND
TEHACHAPIS...AREAS OF IFR IN LOW CLOUDS...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND
PRECIPITATION IMPROVING AFTER 12Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 11-30       77:1924     44:1972     57:2012     29:1906
KFAT 12-01       76:1926     40:1905     56:2012     29:1906
KFAT 12-02       74:1907     39:1972     60:2012     27:1906

KBFL 11-30       83:1924     46:1965     54:2012     28:1907
KBFL 12-01       79:1903     44:1972     54:2012     27:2004
KBFL 12-02       87:1915     42:1972     58:2012     28:2004
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

PUBLIC...BSO
AVN/FW...JEB
SYNOPSIS...BEAN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
310 PM PST SUN NOV 30 2014

CAZ089-090-011330-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
310 PM PST SUN NOV 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY.

...GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

* WINDS: STRONG GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.

* TIMING: WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
  POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
  AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: WINDS MAINLY ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE
  VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY.

* IMPACTS: STRONG GUSTY WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAIN RESULTING IN POSSIBLE FLOODING.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS
  SOURCE...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CAZ093-094-011330-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
310 PM PST SUN NOV 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FOOTHILLS OF THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

* TIMING: RAIN DEVELOPING AROUND MID DAY TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
  AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS AND
  EVENINGS.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: ALONG THE SIERRA FOOTHILLS.

* IMPACTS: THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS TO
  LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND RECENT BURN AREAS.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS
  SOURCE...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CAZ096-097-011330-
SIERRA NEVADA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON-
TULARE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
310 PM PST SUN NOV 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

...HEAVY RAIN AND SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

* PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATIONS: HEAVY RAIN PROBABLE OVER MUCH OF
  THE SIERRA. HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY WITH ONE TO TWO
  FEET OF SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE 8000 FEET.

* WINDS: SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 40-50 MPH OVER THE RIDGES.

* TIMING: PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING AROUND MID DAY TUESDAY. HEAVY
  RAIN POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UNSETTLED WEATHER
  CONTINUING WEDNESDAY.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: ALL OF SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA.

* IMPACTS: THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS TO
  LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND RECENT BURN AREAS. HEAVY SNOW OVER HIGH
  ELEVATION MOUNTAIN PASSES.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS
  SOURCE...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CAZ095-011330-
KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
310 PM PST SUN NOV 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

* TIMING: STRONG SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
  RAIN DEVELOPING AROUND MID DAY TUESDAY. RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT
  TIMES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: MUCH OF THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY
  SOUTH FACING SLOPES...INCLUDING NEAR THE MOUNT PINOS AND FRAZIER
  PARK AREA. ALSO NEAR ANY RECENT BURN AREAS INCLUDING NEAR LAKE
  ISABELLA.

* IMPACTS: THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING AND MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS TO
  LOCATIONS IN AND AROUND RECENT BURN AREAS.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS
  SOURCE...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CAZ091-092-011330-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
310 PM PST SUN NOV 30 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE SOUTHERN SAN JOAQUIN
VALLEY.

...GUSTY WINDS AND THUNDERSTORMS...

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

* WINDS: STRONG GUSTY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS.

* TIMING: GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
  NEAR THE MOUNTAIN PASSES IN THE TEMBLORS AND THE GRAPEVINE.
  THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
  NORTH OF KERN COUNTY.

* IMPACTS: STRONG CROSSWINDS CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY
  FOR DRIVERS OF HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND VEHICLES TOWING
  TRAILERS. THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
  GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS
  SOURCE...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

BSO