Guam, 2014

Rip Current in Guam, December 1 to 2, 2014

December 1 to 2, 2014 · NWS GUM · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Swell generated from a storm system north of the Marianas generated strong rip currents across the Marianas.

The toll

Deaths
1
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.

Swell generated from a storm system north of the Marianas generated strong rip currents across the Marianas.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 30, 9:17 AM UTC, 4 hours 43 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 30, 9:17 AM UTC, 4 hours 43 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
717 PM CHST SUN NOV 30 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
RADAR SHOWS ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHEAR LINE REMAIN JUST NORTH OF SAIPAN
COASTAL WATERS...OTHERWISE SKIES ARE FAIR ACROSS THE LOCAL REGION.
THE DISTURBANCE SSW OF POHNPEI CENTERED NEAR 2N157E HAS BECOME
SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY. BUOYS INDICATE COMBINED SEAS OF 6
TO 8 FEET ALONG WITH A LONG-PERIOD NORTH COMPONENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BROAD CIRCULATION/DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR 2N157E WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED CLOSELY IN THE COMING DAYS. MODELS STILL DIFFER QUITE A
BIT. GFS IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING THE DISTURBANCE AND MOVING
IT IN A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. OTHER MODELS SEEM MORE REALISTIC BY
DEVELOPING IT MORE GRADUALLY TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST...AND SO ECMWF IS
THE MODEL OF CHOICE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE RITIDIAN BUOY REPORT OF LONG-PERIOD NORTH SWELL REQUIRES A SURF
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE DISTURBANCE NEAR
2N157E...CENTERED SSW OF POHNPEI...NEEDS TO BE MONITORED AS AS IT
WILL LIKELY DRIFT TOWARD WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE COMING DAYS...AND
HAZARDOUS SEA CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MARIANAS BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO INITIAL CONDITIONS
FOR THE WAVE GRIDS...BUT WW3 WAVE MODEL IS EXTREME AND BASED ON A
VERY AGGRESSIVE GFS WIND AND WAVE SOLUTION THAT IS NOT REASONABLE
TO PUT IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ECMWF MODEL WINDS REMAIN IN THE
WIND GRIDS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
LATEST ASCAT STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS TWO TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES...ONE SOUTH OF CHUUK LAGOON AT 4N151E AND ANOTHER ONE
SOUTH OF POHNPEI NEAR 2N157E. BASED ON VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP...THE
SECOND DISTURBANCE IS MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED WITH A MID-LEVEL
VORTICITY FIELD IN ITS VICINITY. AS LONG AS THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
REMAINS STRONG NEAR 25N...NOT MUCH MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED FOR THESE
DISTURBANCES. THEREFORE CONVERGING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
NORTH OF THESE DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO TRIGGER SHOWERY WEATHER
FOR CHUUK LAGOON AND POHNPEI THRU MONDAY EVENING. BEING SOUTH OF THE
CONVERGENCE ZONE...CONDITIONS NEAR KOSRAE WILL BE DRIER THRU MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST...AN EVEN MORE ROBUST TRADE CONVERGENCE ZONE
IS SEEN BETWEEN 3N AND 8N. IT IS STRETCHING EASTWARD FROM NEAR THE
MARSHALL ISLANDS ACROSS THE DATE LINE TO BEYOND 160W. THIS FEATURE
IS GOING TO MAINTAIN INCLEMENT WEATHER NEAR MAJURO FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AND SPREAD TO KOSRAE BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

A SERIES OF FRONTAL SYSTEMS NEAR KOREA AND OVER CHINA WILL SLIDE
EASTWARD THRU MONDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE NEAR
25N. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCES TO START TRACKING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. IN RESPONSE...IT WILL DRAG THE TRADE
CONVERGENCE ZONE NORTH OF CHUUK LAGOON AND POHNPEI WHICH WILL
DECREASE SHOWER COVERAGE. HOWEVER IF THE DISTURBANCES DEVELOP
FURTHER BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD
LAST LONGER. AROUND MIDWEEK...THE LEADING ELEMENT OF THE SECOND
TRADE CONVERGENCE ZONE CURRENTLY OVER THE MARSHALLS WILL ARRIVE AND
BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR BOTH LOCALES.

LONG-PERIOD NORTH SWELLS GENERATED BY NEAR GALE WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH A PRONOUNCED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WILL
ARRIVE AT MICRONESIA FROM CHUUK STATE EASTWARD TO THE MARSHALL
ISLANDS ON MONDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE HAZARDOUS SURF FROM CHUUK
STATE EASTWARD TO KOSRAE BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SURF ACROSS THE
MARSHALLS WILL STAY BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS BUT HIGHER RIP CURRENT
RISKS ARE ANTICIPATED. IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW SPRING TIDE
CYCLE...COASTAL INUNDATION WILL NOT BE A CONCERN FOR MAJURO AND
NEARBY ATOLLS.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH IS GOING TO STAY SOUTH OF KOROR AND YAP
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MUCH DRIER TRADES TO THE NORTH WILL MINIMIZE
THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS NEAR YAP THRU MONDAY NIGHT. FOR KOROR...TWO
WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TRADES COULD SPARK OFF A FEW
SHOWERS UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON. WEATHER FOR BOTH LOCATIONS AFTERWARD
WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON THE FUTURE PATH AND STATUS OF TWO TROPICAL
DISTURBANCES CURRENTLY SOUTH OF CHUUK LAGOON AND POHNPEI. IF THE
BETTER ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF POHNPEI BEGINS TO DEVELOP...IT
COULD MERGE WITH THE ONE SOUTH OF CHUUK LAGOON. THIS COMBINED SYSTEM
MIGHT DEVELOP FURTHER AS IT PASSES NEAR KOROR AND YAP NEAR MIDWEEK.
FOR NOW...HAVE INTRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS AND HIGHER SEAS INTO THE
LONGER TERM FORECAST.

A COLD FRONT COMING OFF THE EAST CHINA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF JAPAN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NORTH
OF THIS FRONT WILL PRODUCE LONG-PERIOD NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELLS TOWARD
THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU AND YAP STATE. THESE SWELLS MIGHT GENERATE A
BORDERLINE HIGH SURF ADVISORY BY TUESDAY.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST TUESDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

SIMPSON/CHAN

Event by event

1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.

Rip Current, Guam

When
December 1, 12:00 AM GST to December 2, 2:00 AM GST
Where
Guam forecast zone
Deaths
1 direct, 0 indirect
Reported by
Newspaper

On the morning of December 1st, a 23 year old Air Force Airman, Alec Dye, was reported missing. He was last seen at Tarague Beach, which is near the northern tip of Guam. It was thought that he entered the water at the beach at around 4:45 am that morning.

Over the course of the next several days a search for Dye was conducted. Employed in the effort to find the airman were Navy helicopters, a 110 foot Coast Guard patrol boat, members of the Andersen AFB Fire Department, AAFB security, Guam Fire |Rescue and Police Department members as well as 60 volunteers from Andersen Air Force Base.

A few days later, on the morning of the 4th, an Andersen Air Force Security Patrol found the airman's remains. They were close to where it was estimated that he entered the water. A high surf advisory was in effect at the time. Hazardous surf of |7 to 10 feet was predicted for north facing reefs at the time. Data for the Ritidian buoy showed swell periods of around 13 seconds at the time. Dye may have gotten caught in strong rip currents caused by the swell and high surf.

The people who died

As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.

EventDateAgeSexWhereKind
Rip Current, Guam2014-12-0123MaleIn WaterDirect

What these are

Rip Current
A narrow, fast current flowing away from the beach that caused a drowning or rescue.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Guam in 2014Every state in 2014This day in weather historyWarnings in Guam, December 2014

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 553951.