Coastal Flood and Heavy Snow in Massachusetts, March 7 to 9, 2013

Name: Coastal Flood and Heavy Snow in Massachusetts, March 7 to 9, 2013
Start: 2013-03-07T01:06
End: 2013-03-09T17:00
Location: Massachusetts

March 7 to 9, 2013 · NWS BOX · 35 events in 24 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 35 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $2.0 million
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 35

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS BOX wrote it up.

This storm brought heavy snow and significant coastal flooding to the forecast area. This was an unusual synoptic set-up, with low pressure lingering off the coast of southern New England for several days. Snowfall was difficult to forecast due to concerns about precipitation type and boundary layer temperature. In the end, precipitation type turned out to be all snow for much of the area, with most locations receiving 1 to 2 feet of snow. In addition, the Massachusetts east coast was hit by widespread moderate and pockets of major coastal flooding for two high tide cycles and beach erosion for at least 5 high tide cycles.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Boston/Norton, MA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 7, 12:45 AM EST, 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 7, 12:45 AM EST, 21 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1245 AM EST THU MAR 7 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND
THEN PASSES WELL OFFSHORE OF NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS A
STRONG OCEAN STORM. THIS WILL BRING A LONG DURATION OF
PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS...ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHEAST
MASSACHUSETTS. COASTAL FLOODING AND DANGEROUS SEAS ARE ALSO
LIKELY. DRIER WEATHER ARRIVES FOR THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
940 PM UPDATE...

THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS IS ONE OF EXTREMELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TERMS OF PTYPE AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.  ITS HARD ENOUGH
TO ISSUE SNOW ACCUMULATION FORECASTS WHEN THERE IS UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW MUCH QPF WILL MAKE IT INTO OUR REGION.  WHEN YOU COMBINED THAT
WITH SHAKY THERMAL PROFILES...THE BUST POTENTIAL INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY.

GIVEN THE ABOVE FACTORS...NOT PLANNING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  AT LEAST UNTIL WE CAN REVIEW THE ENTIRE 00Z
SUITE OF MODEL DATA.  THE CURRENT SNOWFALL FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS
THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE...WHICH IS USUALLY THE WAY TO GO WHEN YOU HAVE
BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES ALONG WITH MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON PRECIP
AMOUNTS.  THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT WE MAY NEED TO UP SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS A BIT ACROSS INTERIOR EASTERN MA...BUT WE PROBABLY HAVE
SOMETIME TO DO THAT SINCE THE BULK OF THAT MAY FALL THU NIGHT/FRI
AM.  THE ECMWF MODEL PRINTS OUT BETWEEN 0.75 AND 1.50 INCHES OF QPF
THERE AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...AND SOME OF THAT REGION HAS A BIT OF
ELEVATION WHICH WILL HELP.  AGAIN...WE HAVE TIME ON THIS AND WANT TO
EVALUATE THE LATEST 00Z MODEL DATA BEFORE MAKING ANY CHANGES.

WE WILL GO AHEAD AND MAKE A MINOR UPDATED TO ADD A BIT MORE
ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT TO PORTIONS OF THE WORCESTER HILLS.  SOME
EASTERLY UPSLOPE MAY RESULT IN A FEW INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IN SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS.  HAD A FEW SPOTS IN THAT REGION ALREADY REPORT
CLOSE TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
*COASTAL STORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING TONIGHT
 AND LASTING INTO FRIDAY.

12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE LOW JUST A HAIR MORE TO
THE SE COMPARED TO THE 00Z MODEL SUITE. THIS IS DUE TO THE STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA. MODELS HAVE A GENERAL PLACEMENT
OF THE LOW...HOWEVER EXACT THERMAL FIELDS AND QPF ARE STILL SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENT. BECAUSE OF THESE DIFFERENCES...LEANING TOWARDS ONE MODEL
OR THE OTHER WILL CAUSE DIFFERENCE IN SNOW AMOUNTS. FOR THIS
FORECAST LEANED TOWARDS THE EC AS WELL AS THE GFS AND THE PREV
FORECAST. THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTIES/ISSUES THAT CAN
CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST.

THE BIGGEST DIFFERENCE IN THIS FORECAST COMPARED TO PREV IS THE
LOWERING OF SNOW TOTALS AND TIMING. THIS IS DUE TO THE SUPPRESSION
OF THE LOW AND HIGHER QPF...WHICH IS NOW FARTHER SE AS IT MAY
STRUGGLE TO REACH INTO SNE UNTIL LATER TOMORROW. THIS COMBINED WITH
MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPS AND BL TEMPS AS WELL AS THE UNCERTAINTY AS
TO WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL SET HAS ALLOWED FOR A CONTINUING
LOWER CONFIDENCE. ALTHOUGH HAVE HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT ADV SNOW
WILL OCCUR OVER A LONG DURATION. SPECIFICS BELOW.

MODEL PREFERENCE...
AS STATED EARLIER THE 12Z MODEL SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCE IN QPF AND THERMAL PROFILES.
FOR THIS FORECAST LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE STEADY EC COMBINED WITH
THE GFS. BELIEVE BOTH MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE SUPPRESSION
OF THE LOW AND TIMING. THE NAM AGAIN SEEM TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH
HAVING A WARMER THERMAL PROFILER AS WELL AS QPF MAX AXIS FARTHER
INLAND. TRENDED TOWARDS THE RFC QPF AS WELL AS THE EC AS THE QPF
LOOKS TO BE QUITE LESS OUT WEST WITH THE AXIS OVER EASTERN MASS.

PTYPE AND AMOUNTS...
THIS WAS THE HARDEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE MAIN QUESTIONS
ARE...WILL THE SURFACE TEMPS DROP DOWN TO ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS
OF SNOW? WHERE WILL THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SET UP? FINALLY...WHERE
WILL THE QPF GRADIENT RESIDE AT?

LOOKING AT LATEST RADAR IMAGERY IT APPEARS THAT THE PRECIP SHIELD
CONTINUES TO REMAIN SOUTH THEN MODELS INDICATE...IN FACT IT APPEARS
TO SPREAD SOUTHWARD AT THIS MOMENT. IT SEEMS THAT IT IS A
STRUGGLE TO GET THE MAIN MOISTURE OF THIS SYSTEM TO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND BY TONIGHT. BELIEVE SCT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FROM ONGOING OCEAN FLOW...UNTIL THE STORM FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY
CLOSER TO SNE. SO FOR TONIGHT VERY LITTLE IN ACCUMS PERHAPS AN
INCH OR TWO. THERE MAY BE SOME WRAP AROUND/BANDING BY THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTH COAST...BUT TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
MARGINAL SO A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW LOOKS LIKELY.

FOR THURSDAY...HIGHER QPF WILL BE CENTERED FOR THE COASTAL
PLAIN...BUT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MARGINAL AS ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
OCEAN WILL KEEP TEMPS WARMER. WITH THE SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE
LOW...BETTER FORCING AND ULTIMATELY PERHAPS THE IDEA A DYNAMIC
COOLING HAS SHIFTED SOUTHEASTWARD...SO NOT LOOKING AT A LOT OF
FORCING ON THURSDAY. THAT COMBINED WITH THE MARGINAL TEMPS BELIEVE
THE BETTER AREA TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
MORE SPECIFICALLY THE WORCESTER HILLS...AND THE RHODE ISLANDS HILLS
SINCE THEY WILL HAVE LOWER TEMPS AND HIGHER QPF. SOME ACCUMS MAY
ALSO OCCUR OUT WEST AND NORTH OF I-90 BUT WITH LITTLE QPF AND AWAY
FROM THE BETTER FORCING...DO NOT BELIEVE THAT IT WILL AMOUNT TO
MUCH. SNOW WILL STRUGGLE TO ACCUMULATE ESP ON THE WARMER ROADS ON
THURSDAY.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY LOOKS INTERESTING AS THE COASTAL STORM IS
TRYING TO STAY IN PLACE... AS WELL AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW BEGINS
TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE NW. THESE TWO SYSTEM COMBINED
WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...MORE LIFT AND COOLER TEMPS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE BEST SNOW AMOUNTS TO OCCUR. IN FACT A FEW MODELS ARE
TRYING TO SET UP AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS TIMEFRAME IS WHEN FORECAST HAS THE BEST
CONFIDENCE ON SEEING SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BELIEVE SNOW WILL LINGER
INTO FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST.

SNOW RATIOS WILL BE AROUND 8:1 FOR THIS EVENT AS SNOWFALL WILL BE
A HEAVY WET SNOW ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION.

WINDS...
THIS REGION IS WHERE THE FORECASTER HAS THE BEST CONFIDENCE IN
COMPARED TO SNOW TOTALS ETC. LLJ WILL STILL BE QUIET STRONG AS
SURFACE LOW STRENGTHENS. ALTHOUGH THE NAM IS MORE ROBUST THEN THE
GFS...STILL BELIEVE THAT A PROLONGED STRONG WIND EVENT WILL OCCUR.
THE STRONGER WIND AXIS WILL BE ACROSS THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS.
THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
WHILE A WINDS ADV HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE REST OF SE CWA. THOSE
AREAS HAVE THE BEST TO SEE THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

UNCERTAINTY...
OVERALL THERE IS STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS FORECAST...ESP
IN REGARDS TO THE SNOW AMOUNTS...TEMPS AND HIGHER QPF. ISSUED
PRODUCTS TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN FORECASTER THINKING.
THERE MAY BE A POSSIBILITY WHERE SOME OF THE ADV MAY BE CONVERTED
TO WARNINGS/OR WARNINGS WILL BE EXPANDED AS MODELS GET THEIR ACT
TOGETHER FOR TOMORROW NIGHT. IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER WFOS FELT
THIS WAS THE BEST WAY TO PROCEED. WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW
TONIGHT PLAYS OUT BEFORE HAVING A OVERALL IDEA FOR TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BIG PICTURE... CLOSED LOW WELL SOUTHEAST OF 40N/70W FRIDAY EVENING
WITH CLOSED UPPER CIRCULATION EXTENDING OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.
BOTH THE LOW AND THE CLOSED UPPER FLOW MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE
OVERNIGHT.  UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD FOR THE WEEKEND.  UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST  EJECTS NORTHEAST DURING THE
WEEKEND AND CROSSES THE NORTHEAST USA ON TUESDAY.  NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF CANADA AND OVER NEW ENGLAND
WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINING CYCLONIC CURVATURE THROUGH MIDWEEK.

AGREEMENT ON BROAD FEATURES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF DETERMINISTIC
MODELS.  SOME DIFFERENCE IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE EJECTING
SOUTHWEST TROUGH WITH THE GFS SOMEWHAT DEEPER/SHARPER.  THIS WOULD
LEAD TO A SLOWER WAVE MOVING ACROSS NY AND VT AND DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

FRIDAY NIGHT... OFFSHORE STORM MOVES OUT TO SEA AND UPPER FLOW TURNS
ANTICYCLONIC.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT CLEARING SKIES. PRESSURE RISES OF
1 MB/HOUR MOVE OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT...SO EXPECT DIMINISHING WIND.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE REGION SATURDAY AND
THEN OFFSHORE SUNDAY.  FAIR WEATHER WITH LIGHT WINDS.  ON SUNDAY
WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE...SO WE HAVE INCREASING SKY COVER FOR MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS.

MONDAY... NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE ST LAWRENCE
VALLEY.  MEANWHILE THE SOUTHWEST SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND ALONG THE FRONT.  THIS WILL KEEP SOME SKY COVER OVER US
DURING THE EARLY WEEK BUT THE FOCUS/SUPPORT FOR PCPN WILL BE MAINLY
TO OUR NORTH AND WEST ON MONDAY. A 40 KNOT SOUTHWEST JET DOES MOVE
UP TO OUR WESTERN BORDER DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SO WE BRING LOW-END
CHANCE POPS TO WESTERN MASS/SRN NH DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY...THE MIDWEST SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE EASTERN LAKES TUESDAY
MORNING....SWINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AND
EVENTUALLY NEW ENGLAND.  THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON TIMING OF THIS
PASSAGE...AND WILL LIKELY SHIFT AROUND ON THIS TIMING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL MODEL RUNS.  FOR NOW WE WILL INDICATE CHANCE POPS WITH
DIMINISHING POPS TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY... UPPER TROUGH AND COLD POOL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND. THIS
SHOULD GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. BUT
MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH AND
WEST. SO JUST PARTLY CLOUDY COVER AND NO POPS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FORECASTER CONFIDENCE LEVELS...
  LOW...LESS THAN 30 PERCENT.
  MODERATE...30 TO 60 PERCENT.
  HIGH...GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT.

OVERVIEW...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAFS BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING.

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OVERALL EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.  RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MIXED EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL PROBABLY TURN OVER TO MAINLY SNOW AWAY FROM THE FAR SOUTHEAST
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY
MORNING.  MOST OF THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON AREA RUNWAYS WILL OCCUR
TONIGHT AND FRI MORNING...EXCEPT FOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PERHAPS
FOR INTERIOR EASTERN MA WHERE ACCUMULATION WHERE THEY MAY OCCUR
EARLIER.  ALSO...PERIODS OF LIFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY OCCUR
ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING WITH THE SNOW...BUT
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING WAS TOO LOW TO INSERT INTO 6Z TAFS.

AS FOR WINDS...NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE COASTAL PLAIN INTO AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.  THE STRONGEST
OF THOSE WINDS WILL OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND.

KBOS TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING...BUT LOW PROBABILITY FOR ACCUMULATIONS TODAY IF SNOW CAN
COME DOWN HEAVY ENOUGH.

KBDL TAF...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN TAF LOWER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS
EARLY.  OTHERWISE VFR.  DIMINISHING NORTH WINDS WITH GUSTS UNDER 20
KNOTS OFF-CAPE AND 20-30 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS.

SATURDAY...VFR.  GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS CAPE AND ISLANDS SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...VFR. INCREASING SKY COVER BUT CLOUD LEVELS WELL
ABOVE 5000 FEET.  SCATTERED SHOWERS SRN NH AND WESTERN MASS LATE IN
THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH FRIDAY.

***STORM WARNINGS AND GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL SOUTHERN
  NEW ENGLAND COASTAL WATERS AS A RESULT OF A STRONG COASTAL STORM
  IMPACTING THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY***

EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 KTS LIKELY BY TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY
ON THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THEN ON THE EASTERN OUTER WATERS BY
THURSDAY MORNING.  WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING TO 35 TO 40 KTS AT 4 PM
WEDNESDAY.  THESE WINDS WILL AID IN REDUCING VISIBILITIES IN RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS.

DANGEROUS SEAS WILL BUILD INTO THE 25 TO 30 FOOT RANGE JUST OFFSHORE
THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.  STORM FORCE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS
WILL PUSH THESE HIGH SEAS INTO CAPE COD BAY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

FRIDAY NIGHT...LINGERING NORTH GALES IN THE EVENING...AND WITH SEAS
AT 20 FEET ON THE OUTER WATERS.  WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISHING DURING
THE NIGHT.

SATURDAY...DIMINISHING WINDS AND SEAS.  WINDS/SEAS AT SMALL CRAFT
CRITERIA MOST WATERS IN THE MORNING AND OUTER WATERS LATE IN THE DAY.

SUNDAY...SEAS 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON THE EASTERN WATERS AND SOUTHERN
OUTER WATERS.  LIGHT WINDS.

MONDAY...SEAS 5 FEET OR HIGHER ON THE OUTER WATERS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT TRENDS ARE OMINOUS WITH WINDS GUSTING ALREADY TO 31 KT AND
BOSTON BUOY AND SEAS TO 10 FT AT JEFFREYS LEDGE. THIS SUGGESTS A
FULL 24 HOURS OF STRONG ONSHORE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS PRIOR TO
THE THU MORNING HIGH TIDE. STORM SURGE AT BOS HAS RISEN TO 1.6 FT
WHILE THE STORM SURGE GUIDANCE IS RUNNING ONLY ABOUT .7 FT.

SEVERE EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING ARE LOOKING LIKELY FOR THE
PERIOD THU MORNING TO FRI MORNING...AND THE COASTAL FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A WARNING FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. OUR COMPUTER
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED TO A SOLUTION THAT RESULTS IN AN
EXTENDED DURATION OF A LONG FETCH OF GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS
AIMED TOWARD THE MA E COAST. THE ETSS AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE VALUES
LOOK VERY SIMILAR...ALTHOUGH WE SUSPECT ARE UNDERDONE BY PERHAPS A
HALF FOOT FOR THE THU TIDES. THE ESTOFS LOOKS AS THOUGH IT MAY BE
ABOUT A FOOT OR SO LOW FOR THE FRI MORNING HIGH TIDE. ONE CONCERN
ABOUT BOTH THE ETSS AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE IS THAT THEY ARE
PROJECTING ABOUT .2 FT OF SURGE NOW WHILE WE ARE SEEING ABOUT ONE
FOOT OF SURGE. WE SUSPECT THAT THE NE OR NNE GRADIENT COMBINED
WITH CONTINUED WAVE GENERATION WITH STORM FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF ME AND GEORGES BANK WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR
THE SURGE TO RELAX MUCH ON FRI. WE ARE ANTICIPATING SEAS IN THE
OPEN COASTAL WATERS TO BUILD TO BETWEEN 25 AND 30 FT THU MORNING
AND REMAIN THAT HIGH INTO FRI MORNING. THIS IS A FEW FEET HIGHER
THAN THE WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE AND CONSISTENT WITH CLIMATOLOGY FOR
THESE TYPES OF EVENTS.

AS ALWAYS...THERE WILL BE SOME VARIABILITY OF IMPACT ALONG THE MA E
COAST. WE ARE CONFIDENT IN COASTAL FLOODING WITH A LITTLE LESS
CERTAINTY AS TO JUST WHAT DEGREE OF IMPACT. IN GENERAL...WE ARE
ANTICIPATING MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE THU MORNING HIGH
TIDE...MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE THU EVENING HIGH
TIDE...AND MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE FRI MORNING
HIGH TIDE. ONE CONCERN IS THAT MANY OF THE SAME AREAS IMPACTED BY
THE FEB 9 STORM TIDE WILL BE IMPACTED AGAIN. IN ADDITION...THE
THU MORNING HIGH TIDE MAY PRODUCE NEW VULNERABILITIES THAT COULD
MAKE THE FRI MORNING HIGH TIDE ALL THAT MORE PROBLEMATIC.

WE ARE STILL TOO FAR OUT FROM THE EVENT TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN
EXTENT OF POTENTIAL DAMAGE. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE IMPACT FOR  THE
FRI MORNING HIGH TIDE COULD BE SIMILAR TO OR EVEN A LITTLE WORSE
THAN THE FEB 9 EVENT. PEOPLE LOOKING AT THE REFERENCE INUNDATION
MAPS SHOULD ADD 1 FOOT TO THE PREDICTED STORM TIDE TO ACCOUNT FOR
UNCERTAINTY AS WELL AS AN ADDITIONAL 2 FEET FOR THOSE LOCATIONS
VULNERABLE TO WAVE OVERWASH.

BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE GIVEN THE EXPECTED HIGH WAVES
POUNDING ON THE SHORELINE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. ADDING TO
THE IMPACT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF LONG PERIOD WAVES OF 13 OR 14 SEC
BY FRI MORNING.

NOT CONCERNED WITH THE SOUTH COAST EXCEPT FOR BLOCK ISLAND WHERE
LARGE SWELLS OVER A PROLONGED PERIOD MAY CAUSE SIGNIFICANT EROSION
TO A SHORELINE THAT WAS HEAVILY IMPACTED BY SANDY. THUS...HAVE
POSTED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR BLOCK ISLAND.

SINCE THE STORM CENTER MOVES ONLY SLOWLY E DURING FRI AND FRI
NIGHT...RELATIVELY LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE COASTLINE
INTO SAT MORNING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONTINUED BEACH EROSION
AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR CTZ002>004.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR CTZ004.
MA...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ022>024.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 5 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 AM
     EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ007-015-016-019-022>024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR MAZ002-003-005>011-013>021-026.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR MAZ007-013>021.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR MAZ004-012.
NH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NHZ011-012-015.
RI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR RIZ008.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR RIZ008.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR RIZ002>004-006.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR RIZ001>007.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR RIZ001.
MARINE...STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ231>235-237-255-
     256.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ230.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ236.
     STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ250-251-254.

&&

SYNOPSIS...WTB/THOMPSON
NEAR TERM...FRANK
SHORT TERM...DUNTEN
LONG TERM...WTB
AVIATION...FRANK/WTB
MARINE...WTB/RLG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...THOMPSON

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 6, 4:22 PM EST, 8 hours 44 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
422 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

CTZ002-003-MAZ002-003-005-006-008>011-026-072130-
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-WESTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
422 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS
AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ007-015-016-072130-
EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
422 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND
NORTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ004-012-072130-
NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-
422 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

CTZ004-MAZ017-018-020-021-RIZ002>004-006-072130-
WINDHAM CT-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-
WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-WASHINGTON RI-
422 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN
CONNECTICUT...SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND
AND SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RIZ005-007-072130-
BRISTOL RI-NEWPORT RI-
422 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AND
SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RIZ008-072130-
BLOCK ISLAND RI-
422 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

RIZ001-072130-
NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
422 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   WINTER STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

NHZ011-012-015-072130-
CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
422 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ022>024-072130-
BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
422 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
FRIDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   HIGH WIND WARNING.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ019-072130-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
422 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 10 AM EST
FRIDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.
   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MAZ013-014-072130-
WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
422 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM THURSDAY TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   WIND ADVISORY.
   WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ231>235-237-255-256-072130-
CAPE COD BAY-NANTUCKET SOUND-VINEYARD SOUND-BUZZARDS BAY-
RHODE ISLAND SOUND-BLOCK ISLAND SOUND-
COASTAL WATERS EXTENDING OUT TO 25 NM SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND
NANTUCKET-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MONTAUK NY TO MARTHAS VINEYARD EXTENDING OUT TO
20 NM SOUTH OF BLOCK ISLAND-
422 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS
AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ250-251-254-072130-
COASTAL WATERS EAST OF IPSWICH BAY AND THE STELLWAGEN BANK NATIONAL
MARINE SANCTUARY-MASSACHUSETTS BAY AND IPSWICH BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PROVINCETOWN MA TO CHATHAM MA TO NANTUCKET MA
OUT 20 NM-
422 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   STORM WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ236-072130-
NARRAGANSETT BAY-
422 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ230-072130-
BOSTON HARBOR-
422 PM EST WED MAR 6 2013

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 7, 1:05 AM EST, 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
105 AM EST THU MAR 07 2013

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1207 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 2 ESE NANTUCKET         41.26N  70.07W
03/07/2013  M58 MPH          NANTUCKET          MA   ASOS

            NANTUCKET AIRPORT

&&

MD

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

18 heavy snow, 7 coastal flood, 4 strong wind, 3 high wind, 3 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.

Strong Wind, Southern Bristol

When: March 7, 1:06 AM EST to March 8, 6:08 AM EST
Where: Southern Bristol forecast zone
Measured: 41 kt (47 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $15,000
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 41.757, -71.088 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A ten to twelve inch diameter tree was downed on Elaine Way in Acushnet. Wires were downed on Acushnet Avenue in New Bedford. Amateur radio operators in New Bedford and Fall River recorded wind gusts to 47 mph on their home weather stations.

Heavy Snow, Northern Bristol

When: March 7, 4:00 AM EST to March 8, 7:38 PM EST
Where: Northern Bristol forecast zone
Reported by: NWS Employee
Coordinates: 41.757, -71.088 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Eleven to nearly twenty-three inches of snow fell across northern Bristol County.

Heavy Snow, Northwest Middlesex County

When: March 7, 4:00 AM EST to March 8, 4:01 PM EST
Where: Northwest Middlesex County forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 42.486, -71.392 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Fourteen to sixteen inches of snow fell across northwestern Middlesex County.

Heavy Snow, Western Norfolk

When: March 7, 4:00 AM EST to March 8, 7:30 PM EST
Where: Western Norfolk forecast zone
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 42.171, -71.184 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Fourteen to nearly twenty-five inches of snow fell across western Norfolk County.

Heavy Snow, Western Middlesex

When: March 7, 5:00 AM EST to March 8, 8:42 PM EST
Where: Western Middlesex forecast zone
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 42.486, -71.392 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Nine to twenty-two inches of snow fell across western Middlesex County.

Heavy Snow, Eastern Norfolk

When: March 7, 5:00 AM EST to March 8, 5:03 PM EST
Where: Eastern Norfolk forecast zone
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 42.171, -71.184 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Twelve to nearly thirty inches of snow fell across eastern Norfolk County.

Heavy Snow, Northern Worcester

When: March 7, 5:00 AM EST to March 8, 7:15 PM EST
Where: Northern Worcester forecast zone
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 42.351, -71.908 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Eight to twenty-four inches of snow fell across northern Worcester County.

Heavy Snow, Southern Worcester

When: March 7, 5:00 AM EST to March 9, 12:32 AM EST
Where: Southern Worcester forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 42.351, -71.908 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Ten to twenty-four inches of snow fell across southern Worcester County.

Coastal Flood, Suffolk

When: March 7, 5:28 AM EST to March 8, 10:30 AM EST
Where: Suffolk forecast zone
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 42.264, -71.125 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

In Boston, Morrissey Boulevard was closed in both directions from the University of Massachusetts Boston campus to Freeport Street. Exit 14 from Interstate 93 northbound was closed due to the flooding on Morrissey Boulevard. In Winthrop, six roads were flooded up to the curbs with splashover reaching the front steps of houses. Winthrop Shore Drive was flooded with water and overwash material. In Revere, Winthrop Parkway was flooded with water and debris.

Coastal Flood, Eastern Essex

When: March 7, 5:45 AM EST to March 9, 2:30 PM EST
Where: Eastern Essex forecast zone
Property damage: $1.0 million
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 42.639, -70.868 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

In Marblehead, a parking lot at Devereux Beach was under a foot of fast moving water and overwash. Atlantic Avenue was closed near the Swampscott line due to coastal flooding and large debris in the road. Marblehead Neck Causeway (Ocean Avenue) was flooded, closing the road. Rocks and other ocean debris blocked the roadway. In Salisbury, significant beach erosion occurred near North End Boulevard, the south end of Atlantic Avenue, and Beach Center. Water flowed around houses in these areas. The dune structure on Salisbury Beach experienced major damage. Beach Road was closed due to flooding. The 200 block of North End Boulevard was closed due to coastal flooding. The 700 block of North End Boulevard to Route 1A was closed due to a breach in the seawall. Several feet of sand were in the road. The Surf Side Beach Bar and Grill at 25 Broadway was condemned because of structural damage resulting from battering of waves for multiple tide cycles. Eleventh Street was flooded. In Essex, Route 133 was closed because the causeway was flooded. In Lynn, Nahant Parkway and Lynn Shore Drive were closed due to flooding. In Rockport, a paved parking area at Old Harbor was undermined. Splashover over the seawalls at Front and Back Beaches was flowing around buildings and depositing debris in the road. Penzance Road was completely torn up with sheets of pavement washed away. A driveway in the Back Beach area was undermined. Beach Street was littered with overwash debris. The parking lot at Rockport Harbor was undermined with overwash flowing over the tip of Bearskin Neck. Thurston Place, Marmion Way, and Penzance Road were all flooded with overwash debris in the road. The seawall was collapsed in some locations. On Plum Island, two houses were severely undermined and damaged and collapsed into the water. Additional houses were condemned because of damage sustained. Along Annapolis Way in Newbury, water flowed in and around houses resulting in damaged foundations, stairs, and decks. Dartmouth Street was inaccessible because of flooding. Water flowed around buildings on Harvard Way. Houses at the ends of Harvard Way and Fordham Way experienced deck and floor collapses, resulting in belongings being deposited onto the beach, water flowed around houses on these streets. The foundation of one of the houses was undercut after a bulkhead collapsed. In Swampscott, Lynn Shore Drive was closed due to flooding. In Salem, Bridge and Commercial Streets were flooded with six inches of coastal water.

Heavy Snow, Suffolk

When: March 7, 6:00 AM EST to March 8, 8:00 PM EST
Where: Suffolk forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 42.264, -71.125 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Thirteen to eighteen inches of snow fell across Suffolk County.

Coastal Flood, Barnstable

When: March 7, 6:49 AM EST to March 8, 9:00 AM EST
Where: Barnstable forecast zone
Property damage: $250,000
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 41.684, -70.274 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Sandwich experienced the majority of the coastal flooding on Cape Cod. The Sandwich Boardwalk was flooded. At Sandwich Marina, water was up to the harbormaster shack. Foster Road, Spring Hill Road, and River Street flooded. Houses on Salt Marsh Road were damaged, including a deck destroyed and a foundation undermined. In addition, several houses were flooded. An elevated walkway connecting the town beach parking area and the barrier beaches was destroyed. Minor coastal flooding occurred in Eastham, Wellfleet, Brewster, and Chatham.

Coastal Flood, Eastern Norfolk

When: March 7, 6:52 AM EST to March 9, 9:21 AM EST
Where: Eastern Norfolk forecast zone
Property damage: $75,000
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 42.171, -71.184 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

In Cohasset, several houses on Beach Street were flooded above the basement level. The parking lot at Sandy Beach was flooded. Atlantic Avenue, Jerusalem Road, Stockbridge, Bow, and Margin Streets were flooded and impassable. Rocks and debris were found on the causeway. Atlantic Avenue was closed at the Hull town line because of debris and water in the road.

Coastal Flood, Eastern Plymouth

When: March 7, 6:55 AM EST to March 9, 5:00 PM EST
Where: Eastern Plymouth forecast zone
Property damage: $500,000
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 42.079, -70.960 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

In Plymouth, Route 3A was closed between Cliff Street and Clifford Road due to flooding. A septic system was exposed on the seaward side of Taylor Avenue because of erosion. Warren Avenue near the Bert's Landing Restaurant was flooded. Taylor Avenue near Bartlett Pond was flooded. A sidewalk was undermined at Nelson Street Beach. Homer Avenue was flooded with so much sand it was almost impassable by car. In the Long Beach area, rocks and other ocean debris covered almost a quarter of a mile of Route 3A. Parking lots in this area were at least 50% flooded with lots of rocks and ocean debris and jersey barriers from the edges of the lot were pushed in towards the center of the lot. In Scituate, the parking lot at Scituate Light was flooded. Rocks and other debris were reported near a fire hydrant in the parking lot. Houses were damaged in this area as well. The Town Way extension was impassable. Part of Edward Foster Road was closed. The upper parking area at the Cole Parkway Marina was flooded with between 1 and 2 feet of water. Central Avenue was flooded and impassable with debris and rocks on the road. Buildings were damaged along Central Avenue, especially near that roads intersection with Cliff Road. Turner Road was flooded with two feet of water near Oceanside Drive. Edward Foster Road between 1st and 2nd cliff flooded. Oceanside Drive was flooded and impassable. Cars were stuck in coastal flood waters on Atlantic Avenue. Cole Parkway and Atlantic Drive were flooded and impassable. Barratt Street was washed out. Peggoty Beach experienced significant erosion. Patios, decks, and other sorts of exterior structure were damaged in the area of Surfside Road. In Marshfield, the Brant Rock and Esplanade sections were flooded and impassable with rocks and other debris on roadways. Ocean Street from Colonial Road to Dyke Road had rocks and other debris in the road from significant splashover. Damage to the seawall at Foster Avenue and Brook Street resulted in those streets flooding. Numerous coastal streets were flooded with water flowing around the buildings and rocks and other ocean debris on the roads. In Hull, Atlantic Avenue at Gunrock Avenue was closed for six hours because of at least six inches of water flowing over the road. Ocean Avenue at Spring Street was flooded and impassable. Significant erosion of dunes occurred at Nantasket Beach. Houses and roads along Gunrock Beach were damaged. A playground on Ocean Avenue was flooded. Nantasket Beach between W and Y Streets was flooded, with ocean water and sand flowing through houses. Nantasket Avenue at several locations was flooded with water and ocean debris. Warren Street at Nantasket Beach experienced flooding and erosion, exposing concrete foundations. A sidewalk was undermined and destroyed on Franklin Street near Nantasket Beach. A side street and a driveway along that side street were washed out near Gunrock Avenue. This resulted in damage to nearby buildings. Yards were flooded on both sides of Hampton Circle. Hull Shore Drive was closed due to flooding. George Washington Avenue was flooded with water and ocean debris. A house in the Rockland Street marsh was flooded with water around the house and in the basement. In Duxbury, Gurnet Road was washed out stranding people in the Gurnet section of Plymouth.

Coastal Flood, Nantucket

When: March 7, 7:25 AM EST to March 8, 8:30 AM EST
Where: Nantucket forecast zone
Property damage: $25,000
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 41.270, -70.022 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Hulbert Avenue, Washington, Broad, Easton, and Easy Streets were flooded and impassable. Sheep Pond Road was flooded and water eroded the foundation of a building.

High Wind, Nantucket

When: March 7, 7:45 AM EST to 10:58 AM EST
Where: Nantucket forecast zone
Measured: 55 kt (63 mph) measured gust
Reported by: ASOS
Coordinates: 41.270, -70.022 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Automated Surface Observing System at Nantucket Memorial Airport (KACK) recorded sustained winds of 51 mph and gusts to 63 mph. An amateur radio operator also reported gusts to 63 mph. No damage was reported.

Heavy Snow, Southern Bristol

When: March 7, 8:00 AM EST to March 8, 11:36 PM EST
Where: Southern Bristol forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 41.757, -71.088 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Eight to eighteen inches of snow fell across southern Bristol County.

Heavy Snow, Western Essex

When: March 7, 8:00 AM EST to March 8, 4:17 PM EST
Where: Western Essex forecast zone
Reported by: COOP Observer
Coordinates: 42.639, -70.868 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Nine to sixteen inches of snow fell across interior Essex County.

Heavy Snow, Eastern Essex

When: March 7, 8:00 AM EST to March 8, 4:19 PM EST
Where: Eastern Essex forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 42.639, -70.868 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Eight to eighteen inches of snow fell across coastal Essex County.

Heavy Snow, Western Plymouth

When: March 7, 8:00 AM EST to March 8, 5:26 PM EST
Where: Western Plymouth forecast zone
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 41.987, -70.737 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Ten to twenty-two inches of snow fell across western Plymouth County.

Heavy Snow, Eastern Plymouth

When: March 7, 8:00 AM EST to March 8, 7:30 PM EST
Where: Eastern Plymouth forecast zone
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 42.079, -70.960 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Six to sixteen inches of snow fell across eastern Plymouth County.

Heavy Snow, Southern Plymouth

When: March 7, 8:00 AM EST to March 8, 4:20 PM EST
Where: Southern Plymouth forecast zone
Reported by: COOP Observer
Coordinates: 41.987, -70.737 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Five to twelve inches of snow fell across southern Plymouth County.

Heavy Snow, Southeast Middlesex

When: March 7, 11:00 AM EST to March 8, 6:27 AM EST
Where: Southeast Middlesex forecast zone
Reported by: Trained Spotter
Coordinates: 42.486, -71.392 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Ten to seventeen inches of snow fell across southeastern Middlesex County.

High Wind, Eastern Plymouth

When: March 7, 1:45 PM EST to 2:20 PM EST
Where: Eastern Plymouth forecast zone
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) measured gust
Property damage: $75,000
Reported by: Mesonet
Coordinates: 42.079, -70.960 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Weatherflow reporting site at Duxbury recorded a wind gust of 58 mph. A tree was downed onto wires on Indian Trail in Scituate. In Marshfield, a tree was downed onto wires on Baker Street. Several trees were downed, one of which blocked half of Forest Street in Norwell. Numerous trees and wires were downed in Hingham, including a tree on Prospect Street.

High Wind, Barnstable

When: March 7, 2:30 PM EST to 8:11 PM EST
Where: Barnstable forecast zone
Measured: 53 kt (61 mph) estimated gust
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 41.684, -70.274 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

An amateur radio operator recorded a 58 mph wind gust on their home weather station in Barnstable. A spotter in East Falmouth recorded a 61 mph wind gust on their home weather station. The Automated Weather Observation System at Provincetown Municipal Airport (KPVC) recorded sustained wind speeds of 44 mph. No damage was reported.

Winter Weather, Western Franklin

When: March 7, 3:00 PM EST to March 8, 10:55 AM EST
Where: Western Franklin forecast zone
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 42.583, -72.592 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Three to seven inches of snow fell across western Franklin County.

Winter Weather, Eastern Franklin

When: March 7, 3:00 PM EST to March 8, 10:01 AM EST
Where: Eastern Franklin forecast zone
Reported by: COOP Observer
Coordinates: 42.583, -72.592 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

One to six inches of snow fell across eastern Franklin County.

Heavy Snow, Western Hampden

When: March 7, 3:00 PM EST to March 8, 7:30 AM EST
Where: Western Hampden forecast zone
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 42.135, -72.632 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Four to seven inches of snow fell across western Hampden County.

Heavy Snow, Eastern Hampden

When: March 7, 3:00 PM EST to March 8, 3:50 PM EST
Where: Eastern Hampden forecast zone
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 42.135, -72.632 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Two to twenty-one inches of snow fell across eastern Hampden County.

Heavy Snow, Western Hampshire

When: March 7, 3:00 PM EST to March 8, 8:45 AM EST
Where: Western Hampshire forecast zone
Reported by: COOP Observer
Coordinates: 42.340, -72.664 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Seven to eight inches of snow fell across western Hampshire County.

Winter Weather, Eastern Hampshire

When: March 7, 3:00 PM EST to March 8, 11:45 AM EST
Where: Eastern Hampshire forecast zone
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 42.340, -72.664 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

One to thirteen inches of snow fell across eastern Hampshire County.

Strong Wind, Southeast Middlesex

When: March 7, 3:41 PM EST
Where: Southeast Middlesex forecast zone
Measured: 40 kt (46 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $25,000
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 42.486, -71.392 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A tree and two utility poles were downed at the intersection of Russell Street and Brook Road.

Strong Wind, Western Plymouth

When: March 7, 6:46 PM EST to March 8, 12:07 PM EST
Where: Western Plymouth forecast zone
Measured: 40 kt (46 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $30,000
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 41.987, -70.737 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A tree was downed onto wires on Summer Street near the Hanover/Rockland town line. Trees were downed on Chestnut Street in Middleborough.

Coastal Flood, Dukes

When: March 8, 8:10 AM EST to 1:30 PM EST
Where: Dukes forecast zone
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 41.389, -70.699 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Beach Road in Oak Bluffs was undermined near Farm Pond Road at the end of the seawall. East Chop Drive was flooded with water, rocks, and other ocean debris.

Strong Wind, Western Norfolk

When: March 8, 12:50 PM EST
Where: Western Norfolk forecast zone
Measured: 40 kt (46 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $10,000
Reported by: Amateur Radio
Coordinates: 42.171, -71.184 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A tree was downed across Route 140, blocking a portion of the road.

What these are

Strong Wind: Non-thunderstorm winds below high wind criteria that nonetheless caused damage or casualties.
Heavy Snow: Snowfall reaching the local warning threshold without the other hazards of a winter storm.
Coastal Flood: Flooding of coastal land by the sea, from storm surge, onshore wind or high tides.
High Wind: Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
Winter Weather: Snow, sleet or freezing rain below warning levels that still caused disruption, damage or casualties.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Massachusetts in 2013 Every state in 2013 This day in weather history Warnings in Massachusetts, March 2013

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-30. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 440122, 440139, 440157, 440158, 440155, 440159, 440164, 440165, 437890, 437889, 440163, 440090, 440075, 440079, 440098, 440114, 440142, 440144, 440146, 440160, 440161, 440162, 440156, 440119, 440118, 440147, 440149, 440150, 440151, 440152, 440154, 440125, 440126, 440097, 440127.