Strong Wind in Hawaii, July 31, 2013

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1240 PM HST WED JUL 31 2013

.UPDATE...
FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO INCLUDE BOTH SOUTH BIG ISLAND AND
KAHOOLAWE IN THE WIND ADVISORY. MORNING SURF OBSERVATIONS FROM
SOUTHEAST BIG ISLAND INDICATED SURF HEIGHTS AS HIGH AS 10 FEET AT
BEACHES SOUTH OF CAPE KUMUKAHI...AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED. THIS HIGH SURF IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF A COMBINATION OF
TRADE WIND SURF AND LONGER PERIOD SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SWELLS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WIND WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...WITH TRADE WIND SPEEDS EASING SLIGHTLY TOMORROW. PASSING LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...ESPECIALLY
DURING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH THE DISSIPATING REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL
CYCLONE FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO DISTANCE ITSELF FROM THE ISLANDS...
THE MOIST AIR MASS PULLED NORTHWARD BY THE SYSTEM REMAINS OVER THE
ISLANDS...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70/S STATEWIDE. HIGH
PRESSURE FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS IS BUILDING SOUTHWARD...SUPPORTING
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...AND PUSHING A DRIER AIR MASS OVER THE
ISLANDS. LATEST MIMIC TPW ANALYSES SHOWS THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS
DRIER AIR EDGING EVER CLOSER TO THE STATE FROM THE E...AND GUIDANCE
SHOWS DEW POINTS LOWERING ABOUT 3-5 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR SO. THE ARRIVAL OF THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL MAKE CONDITIONS A
LITTLE LESS STICKY OVER THE ISLANDS...AND LIKELY LEAD TO A REDUCTION
IN TRADE SHOWERS...AFTER A BIT OF A SURGE IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND
THIS MORNING.

TRADES ARE RATHER STRONG TODAY...LEADING TO A WIND ADVISORY FOR
PORTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...INCLUDING THE SUMMITS...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
SEASONABLE TRADE WIND WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADE WINDS DELIVERING RANDOMLY SPACED TRADE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS. THESE SHOWERS WILL FOCUS ALONG WINDWARD
COASTS AND SLOPES...AND ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST ACTIVE DURING NIGHTS
AND MORNINGS. TRADES MAY TREND EVEN LIGHTER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
FRONT PASSES WELL N OF THE ISLANDS. STILL MUCH TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE THE TRACK THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE GIL MAY TAKE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL N PACIFIC NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY TRADE WINDS HAVE RESUMED SINCE YESTERDAY AFTERNOON ONCE THE
THE REMNANT OF FLOSSIE EXITED THE AREA TO THE WEST. PERSISTENT
TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP NUMEROUS AND SOMEWHAT RANDOMLY
SEPARATED PATCHES AND CLUSTERS OF LOW CLOUDS INTO THE STATE UNTIL
FURTHER NOTICE. THUS EXPECT OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG
THE WINDWARD SECTIONS DUE TO THE INFLUX OF CLOUDS INTO THURSDAY.
THE STRONG TRADES WILL ALSO MEAN THE AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB
ALONG THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT MOST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL BRING SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVES TO EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT NOW THAT THE SWELL GENERATED BY
FLOSSIE HAS DIMINISHED...HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
A SSW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND PEAK BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS ON THURSDAY...BUT THE SWELL HAS BEEN SLOW TO ARRIVE
THUS FAR.

AS BREEZY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY...A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR WINDIER COASTAL
WATERS AROUND MAUI AND BIG ISLAND. SOME ZONES MAY BE TRIMMED OUT OF
THE SCA TOMORROW...BUT THE WINDIEST ZONES WILL LIKELY REMAIN.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAHOOLAWE-
HALEAKALA SUMMIT-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-
KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR-BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR SOUTH BIG ISLAND-
BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD
WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...FUJII