A strong low-level jet of 50 to 60 knots, ahead of a short wave trough approaching from the Central Plains, combined with steep lapse rates from the surface up to 800 mb to mix down strong wind gusts over Southeast Wisconsin during the afternoon of November 13th. Sustained winds of 30 mph, with gusts between 45 and 55 mph were measured over the southeast corner of the state.
Every event with a place to put it; 6 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MKX wrote it up.
A strong low-level jet of 50 to 60 knots, ahead of a short wave trough approaching from the Central Plains, combined with steep lapse rates from the surface up to 800 mb to mix down strong wind gusts over Southeast Wisconsin during the afternoon of November 13th. Sustained winds of 30 mph, with gusts between 45 and 55 mph were measured over the southeast corner of the state. The highest reported gust was 54 mph (43 knots) in Kenosha. The strong winds snapped small tree branches and knocked down power lines.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 13, 11:24 AM CST, 2 hours 6 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1124 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011
.UPDATE...ADDED ROCK...WALWORTH...WAUKESHA AND MILWAUKEE COUNTIES
TO THE WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR RACINE AND KENOSHA
COUNTIES. BACK EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS APPEARED TO BE MOVING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER MORE HAVE FORMED IN THE
CLEARING AREAS SOUTHWEST OF MADISON. SHOULD STILL SEE PARTIAL
CLEARING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...AS SUBSIDENCE BEHIND SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN.
THIS...COMBINED WITH ISALLOBARIC FORCING ON BACKSIDE OF WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY...SHOULD ALLOW FOR FREQUENT MIXING OF 35 TO 40 KNOT
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. THIS AREA
IS ALSO CLOSER TO THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVER NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO
20 KNOTS...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KNOTS. WEAKER WINDS MAY OCCUR IN
THE NORTHERN AREAS AS BAGGY PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS THROUGH WITH
THE WIND SHIFT. THE WINDS SHOULD QUICKLY TAPER OFF TOWARD SUNSET
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS AND MIXING DIMINISHES WITH LOSS OF
HEATING.
PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES WHERE BETTER FORCING AND MOISTURE RESIDE.
LEFT MENTION IN FORECAST. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60 WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR A JUMP ONCE AREA IS IN DRY SLOT...HOWEVER
COLD AIR ADVECTION MAY COUNTERACT THIS.
&&
.AVIATION/18Z TAFS/...WINDS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT EASTERN TAF SITES.
GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS...WITH GUSTS OF 25
TO 30 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT MADISON. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME MIXING OUT AT TIMES. ANY
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF TAF SITES.
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING...AS SYSTEM MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. MORE
HIGH CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OFF DURING THE
MORNING...WITH DIURNAL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS EXPECTED IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN EASTERN
TAF SITES...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAFS DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE.
&&
.MARINE...GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL
00Z MONDAY. SHORELINE OBSERVATIONS SO FAR HAVE NOT SHOWN GUSTS TO
34 KNOTS OR GREATER...BUT CHICAGO CRIB SITE HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY
AROUND OR ABOVE GALE FORCE GUSTS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE OCCURRING OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
WAUKEGAN CMAN STATION JUST REPORTED A 33 KNOT GUST...AND WITH
PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT...SHOULD SEE SOME OF THE SHORELINE
OBSERVATIONS VERIFY. THESE WINDS SHOULD GENERATE WAVES OF 4 TO 7
FEET...HIGHEST TOWARD THE OPEN WATERS.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS EVENING...AS WINDS
AND WAVES SUBSIDE WITH WEAKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LACK OF
MIXING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011/
TODAY AND TONIGHT...FORECAST CONFIDENCE HIGH.
FAST MID/UPPER FLOW WITH ONE EXITING SHORTWAVE PUSHING NORTHEAST
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY SUNRISE. NEXT SHORTWAVE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL REACH SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AROUND NOON
BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEAST. MAIN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA BY SUNRISE MONDAY.
MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA TOWARD JAMES BAY
AND SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EVENING.
FORECAST CENTERS ON THE FAST 850 MB JET ACROSS ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. EACH SHORTWAVE TENDS TO MIX WIND DOWN TO THE SURFACE
WITH THE HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN FROM
11 AM TO 5 PM CST AS 850 MB SPEED MAX OF 60 TO 65 KNOTS CROSSES
NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9C/KM ARE STEEPEST BELOW 800 MB
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AS A RESULT WILL HAVE WIND ADVISORY IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST TIP.
BRIEF SHOT OF LOWER STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS EXITING FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN...BUT A SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE BELOW 5 THSD FT SHOULD
RESULT IN MORE STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. SOME POTENTIAL IN SHOWERS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT
AROUND THE SAME TIME THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY NOON. MID LEVELS
ARE FAIRLY DRY.
MID LEVELS START MOISTENING LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS DRY.
MONDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
QUICK HITTING SYSTEM BRINGS CHANCE OF LIGHT PRECIP TO MAINLY SE CWA.
STRONG 250 MILLIBAR JET STREAM PLACES THIS AREA NEAR LEFT FRONT EXIT
PER GEM/ECMWF THOUGH NAM/GFS MUCH QUICKER ON PLACING CWA WITH A MORE
UNFAVORABLE LEFT REAR QUADRANT BY AFTERNOON. ECMWF AND GEM ARE
SUGGESTING THE LIGHT QPF WOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH
NAM/GFS SHUTTING THINGS DOWN BY MIDDAY...WILL LINGER SOME SMALL POPS
IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER INTO THE AFTERNOON.
TUESDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM TAKES AIM ON MAINLY NORTHERN WI. THIS WAVE
SPINS UP A FAIRLY DECENT SURFACE LOW ON THE GEMNH. SOME DIFFERENTIAL
CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION AFFECT CWA AFTER 18Z...THOUGH ECMWF
KEEPS THIS WELL NORTH. WILL KEEP SMALL PRECIP CHANCES IN THE
NORTHERN CWA. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPS 925/850
TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON. 925 TEMPS DO BUBBLE UP AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE SO LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HIGHS SEEM PLAUSIBLE. LIKED
THE CONSRAW BETTER THAN THE ALLBLEND IN DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO.
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
WAVE TRAIN CONTINUES WITHIN THE CHILLY AIRMASS. CONSENSUS FROM GEMNH
AND ECMWF IS A LATE DAY/EVENING VORT PASSAGE WITH THE GFS
CONSIDERABLY QUICKER ON THE TIMING. DECENT MIXING TO 800 MILLIBARS
WITH INVERTED V LOOK TO SOUNDING. VERY LITTLE MOISTURE IN COLUMN
WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING. GFS INCREASES MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WHILE THE ECMWF LOOKS DRIER IN THIS REGARD INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING QPF WITH THIS FEATURE. ALLBLEND
POPS ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. FOR NOW WILL STICK THE DRY LOOK WITH
THIS WAVE.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY - CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM
SHAPING UP TO BE A QUIET PERIOD WITH A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC UPPER
FLOW. LITTLE FORCING OR DEEP MOISTURE TO LOCK ONTO. ECMWF HANGS ONTO
THE CHILLIER 925 TEMPS LONGER WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION FOCUSED MORE
TO THE WEST INTO THURSDAY WHILE GFS STARTS MODIFYING THE AIRMASS
SOONER. GFS SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON FRIDAY
WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW.
SATURDAY - CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM
850 MILLIBAR JET INCREASES ALONG WITH MOISTURE FEED. UPPER FLOW
STARTS TO TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAIN VORT ACTION STILL WELL
OFF TO THE WEST THOUGH. GFS HAS THE USUAL SUSPECT VORTS IN THE FLOW
WHICH GIVEN THE JET STRUCTURE A WAVE OR TWO RIDING MAY NOT BE OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THE ECMWF LOOKS A BIT CLEANER VORT WISE. HOWEVER EVEN IN
THE LATTER CASE...ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLUX AND UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE ENOUGH TO WARRANT ENOUGH CONCERN FOR CHANCY TYPE POPS.
THERMAL PROFILE SUGGESTING LIQUID.
AVIATION/12Z TAFS/...MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO CANADA
TOWARD JAMES BAY AND SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY BY EVENING.
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN.
FORECAST CENTERS ON THE FAST 850 MB JET ACROSS ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN. 2 THSD FT WINDS WILL BRIEFLY WEAKEN TO AROUND 35
KNOTS AROUND SUNRISE LESSENING THE WIND SHEAR POTENTIAL. 2 THSD FT
WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE LATE THIS MORNING...BUT BY THAT TIME
ENOUGH MIXING WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SURFACE WINDS WITH THE MAIN
PROBLEM GUSTS. NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL TEND TO MIX WIND DOWN TO THE
SURFACE WITH THE HIGHEST WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN FROM 17Z TO 23Z AS 850 MB SPEED MAX OF 60 TO 65 KNOTS
CROSSES NORTHERN INDIANA...WITH AROUND 50 KNOTS OVER FAR SOUTHEAST
WISCONSIN. LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9C/KM ARE STEEPEST BELOW 800 MB
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.
SLOW INCREASE IN MOISTURE BELOW 5 THSD FT SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME
POTENTIAL IN SHOWERS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT AROUND THE SAME TIME
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ARRIVES BY NOON. MID LEVELS ARE FAIRLY DRY.
MID LEVELS START MOISTENING LATER TONIGHT AS LOW LEVELS DRY.
MARINE...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD
JAMES BAY CANADA. TRIALING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE LAKE MICHIGAN
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS AT TIMES TODAY WITH
WINDS AND WAVES GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WIZ065-066-
069>072.
LM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LMZ643>646.
&&
UPDATE...WOOD
TODAY/TONIGHT AND AVIATION/MARINE...HENTZ
MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...COLLARHAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 949 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-141600- MARQUETTE-GREEN LAKE-FOND DU LAC-SHEBOYGAN-SAUK-COLUMBIA-DODGE- WASHINGTON-OZAUKEE-IOWA-DANE-JEFFERSON-WAUKESHA-MILWAUKEE- LAFAYETTE-GREEN-ROCK-WALWORTH-RACINE-KENOSHA- 949 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...SOUTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN AND SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA WILL RESULT IN A WINDY DAY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN. WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH 45 MPH OVER FAR SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM FOR THE MILWAUKEE...WAUKESHA...JANESVILLE... RACINE...KENOSHA AND DELAVAN AREAS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED...BUT WIND GUST REPORTS WILL BE APPRECIATED. LMZ643>646-141600- SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI- PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI- NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI- WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL- 949 AM CST SUN NOV 13 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT STRONG SOUTH GALES AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING TOWARD JAMES BAY CANADA WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST EARLY TONIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY BEFORE BECOMING WEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MKX MBK
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
6 strong wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, November 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 355227, 355228, 355229, 355230, 355231, 355233.