A series of stalled frontal boundaries set up over parts of Arkansas and produced very heavy rainfall, leading to river flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LZK wrote it up.
A series of stalled frontal boundaries set up over parts of Arkansas and produced very heavy rainfall, leading to river flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Little Rock, AR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 13, 5:40 PM CST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 540 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2011 .AVIATION... WINDS WILL LESSEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT WITH JET OVERHEAD...LLWS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL....BUT HAVE SCT STRATUS DECK MOVING IN AFTER 14/09Z. ONLY EXPECTED ISOLATED SHRA TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN ARKANSAS MONDAY...SO DID NOT INCLUDE AT TAF SITES. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2011/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE TIGHT SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE HAS KEPT WINDS BREEZY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WERE COMMON...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS COULD STILL SEE NEAR 40 MPH WIND GUSTS. SKIES REMAINED PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AS CLOUDS STREAMED EAST...AND MOISTURE CONTINUED TO SURGE NORTH. EXPECT THE BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE LAKE WIND ADV CONTINUING THROUGH 00Z. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE FOR MON AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NW SAGS FURTHER SE INTO AR. AS THIS FRONT MOVE CLOSER TO THE STATE...HAVE MENTIONED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. INCREASE POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MON AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT PUSHES FURTHER SE INTO THE STATE. HOWEVER...THIS FRONT WILL BEGIN LIFTING BACK NW MON NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE INTO TX. HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF THE CWA MON NIGHT INTO TUE AS THIS UPPER WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO AR. THESE LIKELY POPS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF TUE AND TUE NIGHT AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE REGION. ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS UPPER WAVE...THE COLD FRONT WILL GAIN SWD MOMENTUM AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...WHICH NOW PROG THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES TUE INTO WED MORNING. AS A RESULT...HAVE HELD BACK THE HIGHEST QPF FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...WILL LIKELY BE FINE TUNING THESE VALUES AS TIME GOES ON AS MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM. ONE CONCERN OF LATE IS THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF. THE LATEST TRENDS ARE SHOWING HIGHEST QPF ACROSS WRN AND NWRN SECTIONS OF THE CWA...THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT SAW THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LAST TUE. IF THIS LATEST TREND BECOMES MORE AND MORE LIKELY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE UNDER CONSIDERATION. IF THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHIFTS BACK EAST AND SE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NOT BE NECESSARY AS THEY DID NOT SEE AS HEAVY RAIN LAST WEEK. LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY. AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. LATE FRIDAY WILL BRING SOUTHWEST FLOW TO ARKANSAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE ROCKIES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE MID SOUTH TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THIS WILL PROVIDE COOL...CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS FOR ARKANSAS. THIS HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY AND WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN AS THE SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND WILL BRING SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ARKANSAS. BEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE NORTHWEST. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ARKANSAS- BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY- DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING- INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN- LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK- POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN- WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL. && AVIATION...58
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR 650 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2011 ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-141100- ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND- CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING- INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE- MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE- PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE- WOODRUFF-YELL- 650 PM CST SUN NOV 13 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT ARKANSAS EARLY THIS WEEK. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING OVER 2 INCHES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPIATED. && VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS. 58
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall caused the Cache River near Patterson to rise above flood stage during the late evening hours on the 13th. This river reached over 11 feet during the month of November and moderate flooding continued through the end of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arkansas in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather historyWarnings in Arkansas, November 2011
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 351285.