Strong thunderstorms moved northeast from Lake Huron, clipping the lower St Marys River.
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The episode as NWS APX wrote it up.
Strong thunderstorms moved northeast from Lake Huron, clipping the lower St Marys River.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gaylord, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 22, 9:23 PM EST, 1 hour 37 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1023 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011 .SYNOPSIS.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/ MILD AND LOCALLY WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER MINNESOTA PUSHES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MONDAY...ALONG WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE LOCALLY SEVERE THROUGH TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL TREND SHARPLY COOLER...BUT QUIETER... BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVING LATER IN THE WEEK. FF && .SHORT TERM.../ISSUED AT 1022 PM/...TONIGHT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OVER LAKE MICHIGAN...ARE IN RESPONSE TO A NRN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO MINNESOTA ...WHICH WILL LIFT INTO WRN UPPER MICHIGAN EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SUFFICIENT LOW AND MID LVL MSTR (SFC DEW PTS GENERALLY AROUND 60F WITH 850MB DEW PTS AROUND 8C-10C) OVER THE NRN LAKES...WILL HELP GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE OVR THE CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT. CURRENT CONVECTION OVER LAKE MICHIGAN BEING HELPED BY 45KT 850MB LOW LEVEL JET IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING BOUNDARY. THIS BAND OF LOW LEVEL WIND WILL PUSH EAST OF I-75 EARLY MONDAY MORNING. OVERALL WILL KEEP TREND OF INCREASING POPS ACROSS NRN MI INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE DIMINISHING POPS TO SCATTERED OVER THE WRN LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORCING DIMINISHES. WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WARM AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL... GENERALLY IN THE 55 TO 60 DEGREE RANGE. THE MILD TEMPS ARE AIDED BY WARM AFTERNOON TEMPS IN THE 80S...WITH OVERNIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUD COVER. SWR && .LONG TERM.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/...MONDAY AND BEYOND MON...MAIN FORECAST ISSUE TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK CENTERS ON ADDITIONAL PRECIP CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO CROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN BY LATE AFTERNOON. REMNANTS OF ANY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD BE ON THEIR WAY OUT THROUGH MID MORNING AS LOW LEVEL JET FORCING WANES AND INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH LOSS OF BETTER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...WILL BE WATCHING FOR POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON GIVEN COMBO OF SLOWER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THUS BETTER SURFACE HEATING. STILL... THUNDER THREAT NOT OVERLY HIGH WITH RATHER MEAGER LAPSE RATES ALOFT (SOMETHING CLOSER TO MOIST ADIABATIC) AND LOSS OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AS MIXED LAYER DEWPOINTS DIP INTO THE MID 50S. PER NAM/GFS FORECAST RAOBS...A 75/55 PARCEL YIELDS ONLY A MEAGER 300 J/KG MLCAPE...THOUGH CAN FORESEE A BIT BETTER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY BEING GENERATED FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE BETTER DEWPOINTS PROGGED TO POOL NEAR SAGINAW BAY. WITH APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH/COLD POOL... FEEL MOST SPOTS WILL END UP WITH SOMETHING MEASURABLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITH LIKELY POPS IN ORDER FOR ALL. TUE/WED...INFLUX OF MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH MEAN THERMAL TROUGHING RESIDING OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION...FED BY EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING EXPANDING SOUTH/EAST FROM ONTARIO. PER PROGGED VERY DRY AIRMASS (PWATS RUNNING AROUND A THIRD OF AN INCH)...FORESEE A LOT IN THE WAY OF SUNSHINE BOTH DAYS...THOUGH WITH SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER LATER WED AS MONDAY'S BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH IN RESPONSE TO EASTWARD EJECTION OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH THROUGH THE PLAINS. THIS MAY ALSO ACT TO PROVIDE A COUPLE OF LATE DAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON WED...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKS LIKE A PRIME SETUP FOR SOME LATE SEASON FROST TUE NIGHT WITH COMBO OF CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...AND VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE. WILL LOWER GOING READINGS A COUPLE MORE DEGREES...WITH THE USUAL COLD SPOTS LIKELY TO DIP INTO THE 20S. HIGHS BOTH DAYS INTO THE 50S AND LOWER 60S...A SOLID 10-15F BELOW NORMAL. LATER PERIODS (WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN)...MAIN FOCUS THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON VARIOUS PRECIP CHANCES AS WELL AS TEMPS. OVERALL UPPER PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN DOMINATED BY MEAN UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES IN RESPONSE TO SLOW BREAKDOWN OF NORTHWEST CANADA REX BLOCK FEATURE...ALLOWING CLOSED LOW FEATURE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS TO SLIP TOWARD THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THEREBY REORIENTING THE MEAN WESTERLIES FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS SETUP FAVORS POTENTIAL CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHERE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE PERIOD AS WESTERLIES BYPASS LEAD SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE REGION...AND QUITE INTERESTING TO NOTE BOTH PERSISTENCE OF OPERATIONAL ECMWF THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH REGARD TO THIS IDEA...AS WELL AS TRENDS IN 22/00Z GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TOWARD THIS NOTION. UNFORTUNATELY...THIS MAKES THE POP FORECAST RATHER TRICKY AS TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY SUCH FEATURE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE... PARTICULARLY INTO THE WEEKEND. AS SUCH...WILL GO FOR A DRY FORECAST BOTH SAT/SUN AS DON'T WANT TO CLUTTER THE GRIDS WITH VERY SMALL CHANCES. THAT SAID...WILL STILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME POPS WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT FOR MAINLY SOUTHERN COUNTIES WITH GOOD AGREEMENT THAT APPROACHING UPPER WAVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL LIFT STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY (REMNANTS OF MONDAY'S FRONT) BACK NORTH INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. MEANWHILE...STRONG PUSH OF COOLER/DRIER AIR VIA EXPANSIVE LOW LEVEL RIDGING THROUGHOUT ONTARIO SHOULD PUT A SHARP EDGE TO NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIP...BUT ALSO HELP HOLD HIGHS BELOW NORMAL ONCE AGAIN RIGHT ON THROUGH THE PERIOD. POTENTIAL IS EVEN THERE FOR SOME VERY CHILLY HIGHS ANY DAY SHOULD CLOUDS/PRECIP DECIDE TO STICK AROUND. LAWRENCE && .MARINE.../ISSUED AT 418 PM/ SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT IN ADVANCE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR...THOUGH DESPITE QUITE STRONG FLOW ALOFT...OVERLAKE STABILITY SHOULD HOLD CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. COULD PERHAPS SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KNOTS SOUTH OF GRAND TRAVERSE LIGHT...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO CROSS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT...WHICH OF COURSE COULD PROVIDE LOCALLY GUSTY CONDITIONS. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION...USHERING IN MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BY MONDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY AS THIS TRANSITION OCCURS...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO MIDWEEK (LOW WINDS/WAVES) AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH FROM ONTARIO. LAWRENCE && .AVIATION.../ISSUED AT 719 PM/...VALID FOR 00Z TAFS VFR CIGS/VSBYS CURRENTLY OVR NRN MI TAF SITES...WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EVENING AS SLIGHTLY LOWER/DRIER SFC DEW PTS HAVE WORKED INTO THE REGION. CONVECTION CURRENTLY OVER WISCONSIN...EXPECTED TO CROSS LAKE MICHIGAN AND INTO NRN MI TAF SITES THIS EVENING...IN RESPONSE TO A STORM SYSTEM LIFTING INTO WRN UPPER MICHIGAN. CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO FALL TO MVFR WITH APPROACHING STORMS...THEN FALLING TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT BEHIND EXITING STORMS. SWR && .APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MI...NONE. LH...NONE. LM...NONE. LS...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 915 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011 LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042- 231200- STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL- MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT- STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY- SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG- SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT- MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA- MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM- OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD- OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO- GLADWIN-ARENAC- 915 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN... EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT THUNDERSTORMS FROM WISCONSIN WILL MOVE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP MONDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ALPENA TO CADILLAC. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. FROST AND/OR FREEZE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHOUT ALL OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN...ESPECIALLY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT. PLEASE RELAY ALL REPORTS OF HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. JH/SWR
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1059 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011 MIZ015>018-022-023-230330- CHEBOYGAN MI-EMMET MI-MACKINAC MI-MONTMORENCY MI-OTSEGO MI-PRESQUE ISLE MI- 1059 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS... AT 1056 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM LEVERING TO KOEHLER TOWNSHIP TO SPARR...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE... CHEBOYGAN... ONAWAY... ALOHA STATE PARK... MULLET LAKE... ALOHA... TOWER... ALVERNO... BLACK LAKE... ONAWAY STATE PARK... CHEBOYGAN STATE PARK... HURON BEACH... OCQUEOC... MILLERSBURG... CLEAR LAKE STATE PARK... IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING. JZ
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1125 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011 MIZ017-018-023-024-230400- ALPENA MI-CHEBOYGAN MI-MONTMORENCY MI-PRESQUE ISLE MI- 1125 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS... AT 1123 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM OCQUEOC TO LOCKWOOD LAKE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE... LACHINE... ROGERS CITY... GRASS LAKE... OCQUEOC... MILLERSBURG... LONG LAKE... HURON BEACH... FLETCHER POND... HILLMAN... HAWKS... SPRATT... P H HOEFT STATE PARK... LONG RAPIDS... POSEN... CATHRO... IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1128 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011
..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1111 PM HAIL ATLANTA 45.00N 84.15W
05/22/2011 M0.25 INCH MONTMORENCY MI TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
EVENT NUMBER APX1100394
MSBPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1131 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011
..TIME.. ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE.. ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1114 PM MARINE TSTM WIND CHEBOYGAN 45.64N 84.47W
05/22/2011 M42 MPH CHEBOYGAN MI AWOS
&&
EVENT NUMBER APX1100395
MSBSPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1137 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011 MIZ008-015-230400- CHIPPEWA MI-MACKINAC MI- 1137 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS... AT 1133 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES SOUTH OF HESSEL...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF MACKINAC ISLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. THIS STORM WILL BE NEAR... STALWART AND PICKFORD AROUND 1150 PM EDT. RABER...GOETZVILLE AND KELDEN AROUND 1155 PM EDT. MUNUSCONG AROUND MIDNIGHT EDT. IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI 1157 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011 MIZ018-230430- PRESQUE ISLE MI- 1157 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011 ...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS... AT 1156 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM FORTY MILE POINT TO POSEN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. HAIL UP TO ONE-HALF INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS. LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE... ROGERS CITY... POSEN... THOMPSONS HARBOR STATE PARK... PRESQUE ISLE... IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES YOUR AREA...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING.
The NCL Michigan radar (KAPX), 138 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:00 UTC.
1 marine thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Lake Superior in 2011Every state in 2011This day in weather history
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 315663.