Rip Current in Michigan, May 22, 2011

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
424 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

.SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS.

AXIS OF STRONG INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES ON THE ORDER OF 3500 J/KG
EXTENDS FROM NEAR QUAD CITIES AREA EASTWARD INTO FAR NORTHERN
INDIANA AND FAR SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WEAK SHORT WAVES RIPPLING
THROUGH SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL COMBINE WITH THIS
INSTABILITY AXIS TO POSE SOME SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NORTHEAST
INDIANA...SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN...AND FAR NORTHWEST OHIO OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. IN ADDITION...WILL NEED TO MONITOR EVOLUTION OF
BROKEN BAND OF STORMS FROM JUST WEST OF CHICAGO EXTENDING INTO
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE INTERACTION AND PRE FRONTAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE HAVE AIDED STORM COVERAGE ACROSS THIS AREA WHICH IS
ALSO COINCIDENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER INSTABILITY AXIS. DEEP
LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA ALSO
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THREAT...WITH MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON BOUNDARY DESTABILIZATION POSSIBLE AS STRONGER
FORCING ARRIVES FROM WEST LATER THIS EVENING. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT
ISOLD TORNADO LATER THIS EVENING ACROSS ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA BEFORE A MORE CONSOLIDATED LINEAR STORM MODE IS EXPECTED.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY
WITH 50 TO 60 KNOT MID LEVEL JET STREAK EXPECTED TO CUT THROUGH THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH BROAD WEAK LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE EXPECTED SOUTH
OF THIS UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WITH
MAGNITUDE OF FORCING...FEEL THAT LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER ACROSS
APPROX SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA. SHEAR PROFILES LIKELY TO SUPPORT
SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES AT INITIATION BEFORE STORMS LIKELY CONGEAL
LATE AFTERNOON TOWARD EVENING. POOLING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THIS
CONFLUENT LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT PWATS IN EXCESS OF 1.5
INCHES AND A POTENTIAL OF SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. STRONGEST MID
LEVEL FORCING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING...ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED STORMS JUST
IN ADVANCE OF SOUTHWARD MOVING COOL FRONT INTO THE EVENING HOURS
WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEING MAINTAINED.

&&

.LONG TERM...
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE THE
TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL TROFS AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST. FOR THIS PACKAGE...BLENDED THE GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES ALONG
WITH THE ECMWF. THE ECMWF HAS MADE A COMPLETE RETREAT ON THE MASSIVE
CUT OFF LOW ADVERTISED EARLIER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AN ACTIVE AND POTENTIALLY VERY WET PERIOD IS EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO FRIDAY AS UPPER LEVEL TROFS EJECT NORTHEAST AND AS A FRONT
UNDULATES OVER THE AREA. THE ONGOING GRIDS/FORECAST APPEAR ON TRACK
WITH THE GENERAL TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THIS REGARD.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS FROM WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY WHERE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED.  THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND LATE IN
THE PERIOD GIVEN THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS TRENDS. WARMER
TEMPERATURES BY LATE IN THE PERIOD ARE SUPPORTED BY THE GFS AND
CANADIAN 500 MB ANALOG SIGNALS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE 18Z TAFS WITH MAIN
CONCERN ON TIMING BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
TERMINALS. AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLY MORNING STORMS
ACROSS ILLINOIS HAS COMBINED WITH A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
IN SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW FOR BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE TERMINALS ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. WHILE
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY AT KFWA THROUGH
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
MENTION OF TSRA UNTIL TONIGHT WHEN PREFRONTAL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE
AXIS MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE MAINTAINED PREVIOUS MENTION OF
THUNDER TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE 00Z TO 06Z TIMEFRAME. CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI
SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. POTENTIAL OF MORE STORMS WILL LINGER INT&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MARSILI
LONG TERM...SKIPPER
AVIATION...MARSILI

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
620 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-231030-
LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB-STARKE-
PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN-WHITE-CASS IN-
MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD-JAY-BERRIEN-
CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS-FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-
HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MICHIGAN CITY...LA PORTE...SOUTH BEND...
MISHAWAKA...ELKHART...GOSHEN...LAGRANGE...TOPEKA...ANGOLA...
KENDALLVILLE...LIGONIER...AUBURN...GARRETT...KNOX...NORTH JUDSON...
WINAMAC...FRANCESVILLE...PLYMOUTH...BREMEN...ROCHESTER...WARSAW...
WINONA LAKE...COLUMBIA CITY...SOUTH WHITLEY...FORT WAYNE...
MONTICELLO...BROOKSTON...LOGANSPORT...PERU...WABASH...
NORTH MANCHESTER...HUNTINGTON...BLUFFTON...OSSIAN...DECATUR...
BERNE...MARION...HARTFORD CITY...MONTPELIER...PORTLAND...NILES...
BENTON HARBOR...ST. JOSEPH...BUCHANAN...DOWAGIAC...CASSOPOLIS...
STURGIS...THREE RIVERS...COLDWATER...HILLSDALE...BRYAN...WAUSEON...
ARCHBOLD...DEFIANCE...NAPOLEON...PAULDING...ANTWERP...OTTAWA...
PANDORA...VAN WERT...DELPHOS...LIMA
620 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011 /520 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2011/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST OHIO...
SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN. THE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST...AFFECTING SOUTH
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO IN THE EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND ISOLATED HAIL
TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE MONDAY...WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS THE GREATEST RISK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT...AND AGAIN ON MONDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX

LMZ043-046-231030-
NEW BUFFALO MI TO ST JOSEPH MI-MICHIGAN CITY IN TO NEW BUFFALO MI-
620 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...
ESPECIALLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WIND GUSTS TO 40 KNOTS AND HAIL TO
ONE INCH IN DIAMETER ARE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HIGH WAVES ARE POSSIBLE
IN AND NEAR STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES...OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WEATHER.GOV/IWX/?N=MARINE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
326 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0325 PM     HAIL             HAMILTON                41.53N  84.91W
05/22/2011  E1.00 INCH       STEUBEN            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED ON HWY 427 DRIVING NORTH JUST INTO THE
            SOUTHSIDE OF HAMILTON

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100785

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
358 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0345 PM     HAIL             EDON                    41.56N  84.77W
05/22/2011  M0.70 INCH       WILLIAMS           OH   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100786

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
402 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0355 PM     HAIL             MONTGOMERY              41.78N  84.80W
05/22/2011  M0.88 INCH       HILLSDALE          MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100787

SAW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
411 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0411 PM     HAIL             MONTPELIER              41.58N  84.61W
05/22/2011  M0.50 INCH       WILLIAMS           OH   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PEA TO HALF INCH SIZE HAIL CURRENTLY FALLING

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100788

SAW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
434 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

OHZ001-002-222100-
FULTON OH-WILLIAMS OH-
434 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARD NORTHERN FULTON AND
NORTHEASTERN WILLIAMS COUNTIES IN NORTHWEST OHIO...

AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FAYETTE...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF
ARCHBOLD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL...WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.
ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE
ISSUED IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  DELTA...
  TEDROW...
  DENSON...OAKSHADE AND OTTOKEE...
  LYONS AND WINAMEG...
  SEWARD AND METAMORA...

GUSTY WINDS MAY CAUSE SMALL BRANCHES TO BE BLOWN DOWN...AND LOOSE
OBJECTS TO BLOW AROUND. STAY AWAY FROM HIGH OBJECTS OUTDOORS SUCH AS
TREES.

SEEK SHELTER IN A STURDY STRUCTURE UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LAT...LON 4156 8445 4160 8448 4163 8438 4170 8439
      4171 8438 4172 8388 4170 8387 4157 8387
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 247DEG 33KT 4166 8437

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
445 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2011

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0403 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MONTPELIER              41.58N  84.61W
05/22/2011                   WILLIAMS           OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN

&&

EVENT NUMBER IWX1100789

SAW