Damaging Wind in Nebraska, June 9, 2009

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
324 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

A COOL AND AT TIMES RAINY PATTERN SETTING UP FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...

.SYNOPSIS...
IN NORTHERN STREAM...UPPER LOW LOCATED IN SWRN SASKATCHEWAN WHILE
SRN STREAM...A TROUGH EXISTS OFF THE COAST OF CALIF. SOME
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NOW MAKING ITS WAY INTO NRN UTAH AND COLORADO.
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING ACROSS NCTRL CO AND EXTREME SERN WY.
AXIS OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM ERN MT THROUGH SWRN SD INTO
WRN NEBR AND WRN KS. A RETURN SERLY UPSLOPE FLOW HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS ERN CO AND SERN NEBR PNHDL.

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

TONIGHT...COUPLED UPPER JET STRUCTURE FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION IN
NRN STREAM AND LEFT EXIT REGION IN SRN STREAM WILL AID IN TSTM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS FA. H85 JET DEVELOPING TOWARD 03Z
NORTHWARD FROM WRN KS AND WEAK DISTURBANCE IN WESTERLIES WILL ALSO
ENHANCE DEVELOPMENT. NAM/GFS IN BEST AGREEMENT FOR OCCURRENCE ACROSS
NCTRL NEBR (40-60 PERCENT). LESS CHCS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH
WHERE CHC ARE ABOUT 30 PERCENT OVERNIGHT. SEVERE THREAT
UNLIKELY...ALTHOUGH A FEW ELEVATED STORMS COULD YIELD SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...OVERNIGHT SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS THE
EAST IN THE MORNING WITH THE ERN PNHDL DRY. SHOWERS AND STORMS
SHOULD BE QUICK TO REDEVELOP DURING AFTN AS WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH
INTO NRN KS AND INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 1500-2000 J/KG SRN HALF OF
FA. 45KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR DURING AFTN EVENING WILL BE FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY SOUTH OF I80. HIGHS FROM
MID 60S NORTH  TO LOWER 70S SOUTHWEST. PRECIP CHC TO RANGE FROM
40-50 PERCENT WITH A CONTINUED UPPER JET COUPLET AND FAIRLY STRONG
VORT MAX EXITING CNTRL CO.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BRING AN UPSLOPE EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND ALONG WITH A MAINLY
CLOUDY SKY AND CONTINUED CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
NRN PLAINS UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS WILL
BRING AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL
ONCE AGAIN FROM 60-65 MOST AREAS. OVERNIGHT...NAM/GFS INDICATED THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WHILE THE WEST REMAINS UNSETTLED WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORM CHCS WHERE BETTER UPSLOPE FLOW EXISTS.

THURSDAY...CONTINUED RAIN CHCS WITH MAIN INFLUENCE FROM NRN STREAM
TROUGH. STILL RATHER COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS MAIN NEAR
70.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN WILL A BIG WARMUP OCCUR. MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS STILL IN AGREEMENT THAT A SOMEWHAT COOL AND WET PATTERN WILL
PERSIST. HIGHS THOUGH SHOULD MODERATE FROM THE MID 70S FRIDAY TO THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. RAIN CHCS EXIST
THROUGH EXTENDED PERIODS (MAINLY 20-30 PERCENT). SYNOPTIC SETUP
INDICATES NEBR WILL BE ALONG THE CREST OF A FLATTENED UPPER RIDGE
CENTER OVER SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO OCCUR EACH NIGHT. MCSS OFTEN CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL AND CAN COVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE REGION. HIGHS
WILL BE 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z WITH A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TERMINAL KLBF AND KVTN TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS ON THE HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS TO RETURN
TO IFR CONDITIONS BEYOND 09Z. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CEILINGS TO RETURN TO VFR BEYOND 18Z TUESDAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...KECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
405 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-091000-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
405 PM CDT MON JUN 8 2009 /305 PM MDT MON JUN 8 2009/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
DEUEL AND GARDEN COUNTIES THIS EVENING. A STATIONARY FRONT
ON THE PLAINS OF WYOMING AND COLORADO IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS
OF THE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY BY EVENING. AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NEBRASKA
PANHANDLE...THEY ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AND MAY PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. TONIGHT...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT NORTHEAST TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SANDHILLS THAT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG A TROUGH IN WESTERN NEBRASKA
AND ALONG A FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS. THE GREATEST RISK OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE HIGHWAY 80.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE IN DEUEL AND GARDEN COUNTIES
TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

KECK