Damaging Winds in Wyoming, July 26, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
150 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2008

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES EDGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WAVES UPSTREAM OF THE AREA. THE NEXT
WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN WYOMING. SKIES ARE
CLEAR FOR NOW WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S AND LOWER TO MID 60S DEW
POINTS ACROSS THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS.

STILL LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE EVENING WITH LOTS OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR AROUND. SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER WYOMING AND EASTERN
MONTANA. EXPECT STORMS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
THAT WAVE APPROACHES AND CONTINUES EASTWARD INTO THE EVENING.

ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE RIDGE SUNDAY BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER. INSTABILITY VALUES ARE STILL QUITE
HIGH BUT THE BETTER SHEAR MOVES A LITTLE TO THE EAST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE PLAINS FOR MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING THROUGH BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS.
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING PLENTY OF MOISTURE
TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE HILLS.

EXTENDED...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE TOP OF A WEAK UPPER
RIDGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE. AFTER
MIDWEEK...THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS BRINGING GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE OVER MUCH
OF THE AREA...WITH LARGE HAIL AND VERY STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1051 AM MDT SAT JUL 26 2008

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-271300-
BENNETT-BUTTE-CENTRAL BLACK HILLS-CUSTER CO PLAINS-FALL RIVER-HAAKON-
HARDING-HERMOSA FOOT HILLS-JACKSON-MELLETTE-NORTHEASTERN CROOK-
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS-NORTHERN CAMPBELL-NORTHERN FOOT HILLS-
NORTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-PENNINGTON CO PLAINS-PERKINS-RAPID CITY-
SHANNON-SOUTHERN BLACK HILLS-SOUTHERN CAMPBELL-SOUTHERN FOOT HILLS-
SOUTHERN MEADE CO PLAINS-STURGIS/PIEDMONT FOOT HILLS-TODD-TRIPP-
WESTERN CROOK-WESTON-WYOMING BLACK HILLS-ZIEBACH-
1051 AM MDT (1151 AM CDT) SAT JUL 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK IS FORECAST FOR
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO A VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS IN
AN AREA EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE LARGE HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. THERE IS ALSO THE
THREAT FOR TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSES THE NORTHERN
PLAINS STATES. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR EACH DAY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS OCCASIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
AND A MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS CONTINUE TO COLLIDE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.