Hail in Pennsylvania, July 26, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
352 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA TOMORROW AND REMAIN OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT APPEARS TO BE NEAR TOL. WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING. LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOMING DIVERGENT WHICH WILL MINIMIZE THE
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND NEAR THE LAKESHORE BUT WILL HAVE
TO ALLOW AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS EARLY IN THE
FORECAST. BEST CHANCE WOULD BE INLAND AREAS FROM AROUND BOWLING
GREEN... NORWALK AND YNG SOUTHEASTWARD. WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE STORMS AS THE MOST UNSTABLE TIME OF THE DAY IS UPON
US. ATMOSPHERE DRYING OUT ALOFT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST STORMS
IN CHECK BUT THE STORMS THAT DO OVERCOME THE CAP AND GET TALL
ENOUGH HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNBURST WINDS AS WELL AS LARGE
HAIL. DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND
UPPER LOWER MI BUT THAT IS MORE A FUNCTION OF DAYTIME MIXING...
BUT IT WILL EVENTUALLY BE A BIT COOLER AND LESS HUMID BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOULD BE A NICE DAY SUNDAY...WARM BUT NOT VERY HUMID...WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN A FEW FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS. TEMPS MAY RADIATE DOWN A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY NIGHT FOR DECENT SLEEPING WEATHER THEN
TEMPS MONDAY ABOUT THE SAME AS SUNDAY AS TROUGH ALOFT HOLDS OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND SURFACE HIGH IS OVERHEAD. THE FIRST OF MANY CONVECTIVE
BULLS EYES SHOW UP MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY ON GFS. TYPICALLY THESE
SYSTEMS WILL INITIALLY MOVE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA AND WILL NOT
INTRODUCE ANY SHOWERS/STORMS TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE TO GRAB ONTO DURING THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
MODELS ARE RIDDLED WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK TO THE POINT WHERE
SURFACES LOWS ARE DEVELOPING AND MOVING FORWARD HUNDREDS OF MILES.
NOT TO SAY THAT THERE WILL NOT BE CONVECTIVE TSTORM COMPLEXES...
THERE CERTAINLY WILL BE... BUT I AM NOT GOING TO TRY TO FORECAST
THAT TYPE OF EVENT THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. WITH A GENERAL NW FLOW ALOFT
AND TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA...WE WILL NOT SEE A WIDESPREAD RAIN
EVENT AS FLOW WILL REMAIN RATHER DRY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DEVELOP
GIVEN ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND A TRIGGER SUCH AS A FRONT OR TROUGH.
THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FRONTS THAT I CAN ASCERTAIN...PERHAPS A
WEAK FRONT/TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. LOOKS LIKE THE
AIRMASS WILL TRY TO WARM UP INITIALLY BUT LATER IN THE WEEK IT SEEMS
BEST TO FORECAST TEMPS NEAR NORMAL AS TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND THE REAL HOT WEATHER WILL BE HELD IN CHECK OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND HIGH PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DURING THE REST
OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM SOUTHEAST LOWER
MI TO NE IND. MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE EAST OF CLE WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY WITH THE FRONT ITSELF. WIND WILL EASE AROUND
FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST WITH DIFFUSE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SIGNIFICANT DRYING/SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE REST OF MI SO
CONFIDENT THAT WESTERN SITES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
SOME LINGERING MID DECK CLOUDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE OVERNIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY...WEATHER
LOOKS ALL CLEAR. SOME BR POSSIBLE TOWARD MORNING FOR THOSE THAT
CLEAR OUT WHILE DEWPOINTS ARE SLOW TO LOWER.

OUTLOOK...HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY. UPPER TROUGH ROTATES THROUGH LATER
IN THE DAY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT LATEST FORECAST THINKING
IS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE WAY TO DRY SO VFR WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE. THE PATTERN FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY GETS MORE
COMPLICATED WITH ONLY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WELL AGREED UPON.
SLIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CARRY SUBTLE IMPULSES/SHORTWAVE
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST AND THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES OHIO VALLEY. TIMING ANY IN PARTICULAR AT THIS POINT
IMPOSSIBLE. SO EXPECT MAINLY VFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ANY TS
ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWEST FLOW PICKING UP ACROSS THE LAKE IN THE OPEN WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.  HAVE CONCERN WITH
SEVERAL HOURS OF SOUTHWEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE FETCH OF
THE LAKE BUILDING WAVES TO 4 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS EAST OF
GENEVA.  HAVE ISSUED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE EVENING
HOURS...ENDING IT WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EARLY
THIS EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR SUNDAY WITH A SECONDARY
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LAKES SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  WINDS WILL
RESPOND BY COMING BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE 10-20 KNOT
RANGE.  MON/TUE APPEAR TO BE QUIET/LIGHT VRBL WINDS.  PATTERN INTO
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN AND HAVE BROAD BRUSHED A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT WIND ACROSS THE LAKE FROM TUE-THU AS HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL LAKES.  WAVY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND STORM TRACK MAY BE ACROSS IND/OH THOUGH.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ148-
     149.

&&

SYNOPSIS...ABE/KOSARIK
NEAR TERM...KOSARIK
SHORT TERM...KOSARIK
LONG TERM...KOSARIK
AVIATION...OUDEMAN
MARINE...OUDEMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
553 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

LEZ061-142>149-162>169-OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-
089-PAZ001>003-271000-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RIPLEY TO BUFFALO NY-
MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH OH-RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS OH-
THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION OH-VERMILION TO AVON POINT OH-
AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK OH-WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE LAKE OH-GENEVA-
ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT OH-CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM MAUMEE BAY TO RENO BEACH-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM RENO BEACH TO THE ISLANDS-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM THE ISLANDS TO VERMILION-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM VERMILION TO AVON POINT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM AVON POINT TO WILLOWICK-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM WILLOWICK TO GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM GENEVA-ON-THE-LAKE TO CONNEAUT-
LAKE ERIE OPEN WATERS FROM CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY-LUCAS-WOOD-
OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-ERIE OH-LORAIN-CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-
HANCOCK-SENECA-HURON-MEDINA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-WYANDOT-CRAWFORD-
RICHLAND-ASHLAND-WAYNE-STARK-MAHONING-MARION-MORROW-HOLMES-KNOX-
ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-
553 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR LAKE ERIE...NORTH CENTRAL
OHIO...NORTHEAST OHIO...NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.
HOWEVER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS UNLIKELY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
432 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     HAIL             HIRAM                   41.31N 81.14W
07/26/2008  E1.00 INCH       PORTAGE            OH   PUBLIC

0342 PM     HAIL             GARRETTSVILLE           41.28N 81.10W
07/26/2008  E0.88 INCH       PORTAGE            OH   PUBLIC

0347 PM     HAIL             GARRETTSVILLE           41.28N 81.10W
07/26/2008  E1.00 INCH       PORTAGE            OH   PUBLIC

0415 PM     HAIL             1 W WARREN              41.24N 80.84W
07/26/2008  E0.75 INCH       TRUMBULL           OH   PUBLIC

0420 PM     HAIL             1 W WARREN              41.24N 80.84W
07/26/2008  E0.75 INCH       TRUMBULL           OH   PUBLIC

&&

KIELTYKA