Rip Currents in New York, July 26, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
404 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE APPALACHIANS...WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS NORTH AND
WEST OF NEW YORK CITY THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A GREATER
THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH PUSHES
ACROSS THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND SLIDES EASTWARD THIS EVENING. THIS COMBINED
WITH A 500MB AND 700MB SHORTWAVE...HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP CHANCE OR
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST. THE CHANCE POPS WILL BE WESTERN
HALF OF ORANGE COUNTY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE EASTERN CONNECTICUT AND SUFFOLK COUNTY WHERE IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY. FOLLOWED A MAV/MET/FWC BLEND FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE SHORT TERM AS THE REGION REMAINS UNDER A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN RESPONSE TO A LEE TROUGH AND
A 500MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW.  WHILE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALL DAY...THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 1000-2000 J/KG
OF CAPE...ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR OF 25-35 KT. HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH ANY AFTERNOON STORMS
TOMORROW.

ONCE THE TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE PUSH TO THE EAST (AROUND 6Z
MONDAY)...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL COME TO AN END. THERE WILL BE A
SHORT BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WHEN WE COULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
COLD FRONT PASSES ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW WILL ONLY GO WITH
CHANCE POPS AND ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD BE ISOLATED.
BY TUESDAY 06Z...IT SHOULD BE DRY. BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH TUESDAY.

GENERALLY USED THE MAV OR A MAV/FWC BLEND THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT CONTINUITY IN THE MEAN
UPPER PATTERN...WHICH FEATURES A TROUGH FROM EASTERN CANADA DOWN
THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...ANOTHER ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NW...AND RIDGING DOMINATING THE PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST.

DUE TO LACK OF CONSISTENCY IN THE GFS...WHICH WILL AFFECT GMOS
DATA...HAVE PRIMARILY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE WHICH CONSISTS OF A
BLEND OF THE ECMWF...ECMWF ENS MEAN AND THE GEFS MEAN.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PARKS ITSELF JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER RETURNING. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND APPROACH ON WED BRINGING THE
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN APPEAR TO BE WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING AS THE LOW
MOVES ACROSS...BUT LOWERING CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO THU AFTN/EVE
UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE NORTH ON FRI...BUT ONLY SCHC POPS
LOOK WARRANTED ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE AFTN/EVE ATTM...WITH
DIVERGING GUIDANCE. 12Z OPERATIONAL EC AND GFS (WHICH IS SIMILAR TO
THE 00Z GFS) BOTH INDICATE YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH ON
SAT...BUT ENS MEANS KEEP THINGS DRY...SO FOLLOWED SUIT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FR. SEA BREEZES HAVE KICKED IN AT MOST TERMINALS...KEWR THE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION AS BRISK WSW FLOW HAS BEEN KEEPING IT LITERALLY AT
BAY...AS MESONET OBS NEAR NEWARK BAY AND NEARBY NY HARBOR ARE
SOUTHERLY. RUC/NAM AGREE THAT IT SHOULD EVENTUALLY COME THROUGH
BRIEFLY TOWARD EVENING AND 18Z TAF REFLECTS THIS.

RADAR CURRENTLY SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS POPPING UP IN THE ENHANCED CU
FIELD WELL NORTH/WEST OF NYC...BUT MID LEVEL CAP SHOULD KEEP THESE
FROM DEVELOPING FURTHER EXCEPT PERHAPS NEAR KSWF. AT ANY RATE...
TERMINAL IMPACT QUITE UNCERTAIN AND SO THEY HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED
THROUGH 00Z.

APPROACHING PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH COULD BRING CLOSER CALL FOR THUNDER
INTO KSWF EARLY THIS EVENING WITH VCTS MENTIONED...AND MOST
TERMINALS FARTHER EAST COULD SEE VFR CIGS AND MAYBE A STRAY SHOWER
BY LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. KSWF VSBY COULD GO MVFR LATE
TONIGHT AS TEMPS COOL DOWN AND MOISTURE POOLS IN THE VALLEYS OF
ORANGE COUNTY...AND ESPECIALLY IF TERMINAL DIRECTLY EXPERIENCES A
TSTM THIS EVENING.

THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE OVER OR JUST WEST OF NYC SUNDAY
MORNING...AND AFTER ANY LEFTOVER MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXIT...INSTABILITY
SHOULD QUICKLY BUILD VIA STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND INCREASED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ON SW FLOW. TERMINALS FROM NYC WEST COULD SEE TSTMS
AS EARLY AS MIDDAY SUNDAY AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES TO
LIFT THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS...SO BKN VFR CIGS WITH CB ARE MENTIONED
THERE.

OUTLOOK FOR 18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THU...
THE TROUGH SHOULD MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH
MON...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHING LATE MON AFTERNOON
AND CROSSING THE AREA MON NIGHT. BOTH COULD BRING LOCALIZED SUB-VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS IN SHOWERS/TSTMS...ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG
LATE SUN NIGHT AND POSSIBLY MON NIGHT.

SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON WED AFTERNOON THROUGH THU AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE...WITH S-SW FLOW GENERALLY 10-15 KT
THROUGH MON EVENING BETWEEN OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND A SLOWLY
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...THEN BRIEFLY TURNING NW AFTER COLD FROPA LATE
MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PASSES TO THE S. A 3-FT
SOUTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY THE PRE-FRONTAL S-SW FLOW SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO CONTINUE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE OCEAN BEACHES
FOR SUNDAY.

TUE NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNDERCUT WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
1-2 FT THU AND THU NIGHT AS GFS APPEARS TO BE TOO ROBUST WITH THE
WINDS WHICH IS HAVING AN EFFECT ON THE WAVE GUIDANCE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IT SHOULD BE MOSTLY
DRY THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON TOMORROW. IN GENERAL...EXPECT BETWEEN
A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH OF RAIN WITH THESE STORMS...HOWEVER
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS MAY BE POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE SLOWER MOVING
STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME
MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF POOR DRAINAGE. AFTER THE
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
WILL BE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
ON JULY 28TH...MARINE OBSERVATIONS FROM AMBROSE LIGHT TOWER WILL
BE DECOMMISSIONED.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
453 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

NYZ075>077-080-081-272100-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-QUEENS-NASSAU-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
453 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BEACHES THIS EVENING DUE TO A SOUTHERLY SWELL. PLEASE REFER TO
THE SURF ZONE FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN BEACHES THROUGH SUNDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT
WOULD MEET NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.

ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-
NYZ067>074-078-079-272100-
LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY-
NEW YORK HARBOR-PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS-
SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY-
MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM-
FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM-
SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM-NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-
NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-NORTHERN NEW LONDON-
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-BERGEN-EASTERN PASSAIC-ESSEX-
HUDSON-UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
453 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST
NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME THAT
WOULD MEET NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WARNING CRITERIA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL
WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING
CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN
EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.

PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS
WARNING CRITERIA.