Damaging Wind in Florida, June 22, 2008

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1011 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.UPDATE...
THE 12Z MIAMI RAOB CAME IN VERY UNSTABLE AGAIN THIS MORNING...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY OTHER THAN A SLIGHT DROP IN PWATS.
MODIFYING FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS YIELDS AROUND 4000J/KG OF CAPE AND
LIS OF NEAR -9C. THE MID LEVELS ARE STILL RELATIVELY COOL WITH
500MB TEMPS -8.5 TO -10C HERE AND AT KEY WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS 2 SHORTWAVES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...1 A FEW HUNDRED
MILES SOUTH OF MOBILE AND ANOTHER JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN.
TIMING THESE SHORTWAVES AT PRESENT MOTION HAS THEM JUST OFF THE
WEST COAST OF CENTRAL FL BY THIS EVENING. UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THESE SHORTWAVES THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE
FL PENINSULA. THIS COMBINED WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...AND HAVE EXPANDED
HIGHER POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

CURRENTLY LIGHT WINDS ARE IN PLACE AT THE SFC...VARYING FROM A SE
TO SW DIRECTION THIS MORNING. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS LIGHT
SSW WINDS FOR A FEW THOUSAND FEET ABOVE THE SFC...WHICH SHOULD
FAVOR EARLY DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND HOLD THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AT BAY UNTIL THE MIDDAY HOURS. THINK THAT AT
LEAST ISOLD TSTMS WILL DEVELOP EVEN BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES
IN AND GET AN EARLIER START TODAY...AND THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
DEEPENING CU FIELD WITH EVEN SOME SMALL TOWERS ALREADY SHOWING UP
ACROSS SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG EACH SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY AS THEY MOVE INLAND, WITH STORM
MOTIONS LIKELY SLOW TO THE NE INITIALLY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
STORMS SHOULD MERGE OVER THE INTERIOR AS THEY PICK UP MOMENTUM ON
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ORGANIZING STORMS SHOULD THEN MOVE
BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCAL MICROBURST CALCULATIONS SHOWING WET MICROBURSTS LIKELY...AND
THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE GIVEN 700 J/KG OF DCAPE THIS AFTERNOON. NWRLY
MID LEVEL FLOW AROUND 25KTS COULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SOME
MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AS WELL. WILL ADD SOME
STRONGER WORDING TO THE HWO TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE THREATS.

/STRASSBERG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER ALL S. FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH AT LEAST NOON. SEVERAL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD WEST AND THE LOW LVL WIND
FLOW SHOULD BECOME MORE SE ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHER PORTIONS OF S.
FLORIDA. THIS WILL TEND TO FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVR INLAND
AND NORTHWEST AREAS. BECAUSE OF THIS DECIDED TO INDICATE ONLY VCSH
FOR KMIA, KO PF AND KFLL DURING THE AFTERNOON. WL KEEP VCTS FOR
KPBI AS IT MAY STILL BE NORTH OF THE RIDGE AND SW STEERING FLOW
MAY BRING TSTMS CLOSE TO THE TERMINAL. WL EXPECT SEA BREEZE OVER
WEST COAST AND WILL HELP KEEP SHWRS/TSTMS EAST AND AWAY FROM KAPF
THEREFORE NO PRECIP WILL BE INDICATED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008/

DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS SUGGESTED THAT SOME LOCALIZED
DRYING IS TAKING PLACE AND HAS LOWERED THE FORECAST POPS FOR
TODAY AND MONDAY. THIS GUIDANCE DRYING TREND SEEMS TO BE
REASONABLE. THERE IS A TROPICAL WAVE JUST SOUTH OF CUBA...WITH THE
NORTHERN EXTENSION IN THE BAHAMAS POSSIBLY NEAR ANDROS...WITH
SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING AHEAD OF THE WAVE. PLUS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS NOT CONVERGENT AND BRINGING IN ANY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. THEREFORE HAVE DECREASED THE POPS ACROSS THE
REGION...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ARE POSSIBLE...WITH MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE LAKE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT 500 MB
TEMPS MAY STILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO ENHANCE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION...WITH SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. POPS WERE
ALSO LOWERED FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE BEING ONE OF THE INHIBITING FACTORS.

MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  75  91  79 / 60 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  80 / 50 20 30 20
MIAMI            91  78  91  79 / 40 20 30 20
NAPLES           90  74  93  74 / 50 20 30 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...60/BD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...47/RHG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1015 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-230200-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
1015 AM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY, FEW POSSIBLY STRONG OR
SEVERE...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST
OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY HAZARD
EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING STRIKES.

WIND: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 60
MPH.

HAIL: THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PEA TO PENNY
SIZED HAIL.

FLOODING: THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS TODAY WILL
RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, LEADING TO PONDING OF WATER IN
POORLY DRAINED LOCATIONS.

VISIBILITY: A MIXTURE OF SMOKE AND FOG TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST OF
SMOLDERING WILDFIRES AROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE MAY
RESULT IN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS TO ONE MILE OR LESS LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, WITH ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.