Frost and Freeze in Virginia, May 7, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
331 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIPRES OVR AREA...AND WL REMAIN SO NXT 24 HRS AT LEAST AS UPR CUTOFF
LOW MEANDERS OFF SE ATLC CST...CREATING A BLOCKED PTTN ACRS NOAM.
THUS...WL BE A TEMP AND WND FCST TDA AND TNGT.

LTL/NO WND ATTM...AND FROST/FRZ HEADLINES ON TRACK. NO CHGS TO THOSE
AT THIS LT HR. SHUD SEE FULL INSOLATION TDA...W/ H8 TEMPS RISING ABT
5C. WL GO W/ HIER MAV TEMPS FOR MAXT. HRLY SNDGS STILL SUGGEST A FEW
WND GUSTS...THO NOT THE SAME AS YDA.

DEWPTS CREEP UPWD AS RDG AXIS IS COAXED A PINCH EWD. AS A RSLT...THE
EXTENT OF DRY AIR TNGT NOT AS WDSPD AS CRRNTLY. HIGHLAND/PNDLTN
CNTYS STILL SUSEPTIBLE FOR A GOOD FROST...AND WL GO W/ ANTHR FROST
ADVY THERE TNGT. ELSW...PATCHY AT BEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WITH LOW PRES TO OUR SE THEN S WITH
PRODUCE OUR TRANQUIL WEATHER THROUGH WED. THE GFS HAS SOME VERY
LIGHT PRECIP INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON WED...BUT AFTER CONSULTING
THE SREFS WILL LIMIT ANY CHC TO JUST 10 PERCENT. BY THU AND FRI A
WEAK FRONT OVER THE MISS VALLEY WILL NEAR THE REGION AND BRING SOME
CHC AND SLT CHC POPS INTO THE FORECAST. AFTER THAT ANOTHER CANADIAN
HIGH WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION BEHIND THAT FRONT. THAT WILL
BRING COOLER TEMPS THE CHC FOR LIGHT RAIN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
DREARY CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z-06Z/...
CAVU. ENE FLOW...CUD BE A FEW G20KT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HRS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOOKS LIKE SCA CONDS WL PREVAIL IN THE MIXED LYR THRU THE DAY. IT
MIGHT LINGER A FEW HRS LONGER MID BAY. FOR NOW WL EXPAND SCA TO
ENTIRE MARINE AREA AND EXTEND THRU 6PM.

WATER LEVELS HV BEEN RISING ON THE BAY THRU THIS LOW TIDE CYCLE.
GDNC KEEPS ANY ANOMOLIES TDA UNDER A FT ABV.

&&

.TIDES...
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR WATER LEVELS EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL OCCUR IN CONCERT WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC. PERSISTENT CROSS FLOW ACROSS THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY AND WATER LEVEL PATTERN FROM INVERSE PRESSURE EFFECTS NEAR
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY CAUSE ABNORMALLY HIGH WATER LEVELS TO
DEVELOP BY TUE.

&&

.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ501-502.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ003>005.

VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ021.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ021.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ025>031.

WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR WVZ054.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ050-054-055-
     501>504.

     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ051>053.

MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR ANZ530>532-535-536.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ533-
     534-537.

&&

SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...STRONG
AVIATION...HTS
MARINE...HTS
TIDES...STRONG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
408 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

ANZ530>537-DCZ001-MDZ003>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-501-502-
VAZ021-025>031-036>042-050>057-WVZ050>055-501>504-081045-
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD-
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD-
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA-
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-
NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD-MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-
PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-
EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HIGHLAND-
AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-
NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-MADISON-RAPPAHANNOCK-FAUQUIER-LOUDOUN-
ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-
ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-
KING GEORGE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-PENDLETON-HARDY-
WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-
408 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE INCLUDING THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT
COUNTY...EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...
WASHINGTON DC AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC RIVER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ON THE TIDAL
POTOMAC AND MARYLAND PORTION OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY.

A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9AM FOR WESTERN MARYLAND...
FAR WESTERN VIRGINIA...AND THE EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE
INCLUDING ALLEGANY...HAMPSHIRE...MINERAL...GRANT...HARDY...
PENDLETON...AND HIGHLAND COUNTIES.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 9AM FOR THE SHENANDOAH
VALLEY...THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS...NORTH CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND THE
EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE.

A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING FOR HIGHLAND AND PENDLETON COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE IS A LOW RISK THREAT OF MINOR COASTAL FLOODING TUESDAY FOR
THE LOWER TIDAL POTOMAC AND LOWER MARYLAND CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.
HIGHER WATER LEVELS COULD RESULT FROM THE COMBINATION OF STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND AN INTENSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE RISK OF COASTAL FLOODING IS
GREATEST ACROSS SOUTHERN MARYLAND INCLUDING ST. MARYS...CALVERT...
ANNE ARUNDEL...AND CHARLES COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

HTS/STRONG