Wildfire in Florida, May 7 to 20, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
244 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

.SYNOPSIS...INTENSE EXTRATROPICAL LOW NEAR 30N 75W MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHWEST. NUMERICAL MODELS MOVE THIS LOW WEST TO N FL/GA BORDER
WHILE SLIGHTLY WEAKENING. THE MAIN EFFECT THIS LOW WILL HAVE ON
MAINLAND S. FLORIDA WILL BE ON THE MARINE CONDITIONS (SEE BELOW).
IN THE MEANTIME...THIS LOW WILL HELP ADVECT DRY AIR SOUTH TO
MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS, COMBINED WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH IT, WILL
INHIBIT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP AT LEAST THROUGH MID WEEK. SO WILL
INDICATE VERY LOW POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE LOW WILL THEN
DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO SPRING/SUMMER
CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND MOVE WEST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IT WILL KEEP A FETCH POINTING TOWARD S.
FLORIDA ATLANTIC WATERS. MODERATE SWELLS HAVE ALREADY ARRIVE TO
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND VERY LARGE NORTHERLY SWELLS HAVE BEEN
OBSERVED AT BUOY 10 EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SWELLS SHOULD
ARRIVE TO OUR ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WAVEWATCH
(WHICH HAVE BEEN DOING A REALLY GOOD JOB SO FAR) STILL INDICATES
MUCH HIGHER SWELLS ARRIVING TO BUOY 10 THIS EVENING, WHICH
ACCORDING TO LOCAL CALCULATIONS SHOULD ARRIVE AT PALM BEACH JUST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. SWELLS OF 10 TO 14 FT ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE MORNING, WHICH WILL COINCIDE WITH HIGH TIDES ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING AND A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUE IN EFFECT AS BREAKERS OF AT LEAST 15
FEET ARE EXPECTED. BEACH EROSION HAS ALREADY BEEN REPORTED AND
MAJOR BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED/ALONG WITH MINOR FLOODING ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TONIGHT. SWELLS SHOULD START A SUBSIDING
TREND BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW GET CLOSER TO LAND (N. FLORIDA) AND WEAKENS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR ADVECTED SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS LOW...COUPLED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...WILL RESULT IN
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALLING TO AROUND 35 % FOR 3 TO 4 HOURS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. FOR THIS
REASON A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THOSE COUNTIES FOR
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  62  81  62  83 / -  -  10 10
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  81  64  83 / -  -  10 10
MIAMI            63  82  63  84 / -  -  10 10
NAPLES           58  78  63  82 / -  -  10 10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR FLZ068-FLZ072-FLZ074.

     HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ068-FLZ072-
     FLZ074.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ068-FLZ072-
     FLZ074.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-
     AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING
     TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-AMZ670-AMZ671.

GM...NONE.
&&

LONG TERM...47/RHG
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...52/PS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

FLZ063-066>075-080000-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
1100 AM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING EAST COAST TONIGHT...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY EAST COAST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...
...WIND ADVISORY EAST COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIND: NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLIER TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE COASTAL AREAS WITH HIGHER GUSTS AROUND
35 KNOTS POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. GUSTS OVER 20
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE, BISCAYNE BAY AND THE
OUTER GULF WATERS.

WAVES: THE NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH AN
INCREASING NORTHEAST SWELL, WILL INCREASE GULF STREAM SEAS TO 12
FEET OR HIGHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS REACHING AS HIGH AS 15 TO
20 FEET OFFSHORE AND SLIGHTLY LESS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST TONIGHT.

THE SEAS WILL ALLOW LARGE BREAKING WAVES ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST IN EXCESS OF 10 FEET TO DEVELOP. MAJOR BEACH EROSION WILL
OCCUR AND THE SURF WILL BECOME VERY HAZARDOUS. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT BUT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MARINERS NEED TO EXERCISE EXTREME CAUTION
IF VENTURING INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC. SEAS WILL BE EXTREMELY HIGH
AND VERY ROUGH AT THE MOUTHS OF BAYS AND INLETS LEADING TO THE
OPEN OCEAN.

FLOODING: THE COMBINATION OF THE LARGE BREAKING WAVES WITH HIGH
TIDE AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT COULD RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL
FLOODING WITH WATER REACHING STRUCTURES OR EVEN ROADS ALONG THE
BEACH FRONT.

RIP CURRENTS: THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK CURRENTS TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS, COMBINED WITH THE
INCREASING NORTHEAST SWELL, WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH...BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THOUGH WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND GRADUALLY DECREASE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THE MODERATE TO LARGE NORTHEAST SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE, KEEPING THE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ELEVATED FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE SWELLS WILL ALSO KEEP THE GULF STREAM SEAS QUITE HIGH, WITH
SEAS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 7 FEET OR HIGHER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
118 PM EDT MON MAY 07 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HAIL             3 WSW KENDALE LAKES     25.69N 80.46W
05/06/2007  E0.75 INCH       MIAMI-DADE         FL   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER EMPLOYEE REPORTED PENNY SIZED
            HAIL.

&&

MOLLEDA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
341 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

FLZ069-072200-
WESTERN COLLIER-
INCLUDING THE CITY OF...NAPLES
341 PM EDT MON MAY 7 2007

NORTHERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMOKE DOWN
INTO NORTHWEST COLLIER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON FROM A BRUSH FIRE IN
SOUTHERN LEE COUNTY. PEOPLE IN NORTHERN COLLIER COUNTY WITH
BREATHING PROBLEMS NEED TO REMAIN INSIDE WITH THE WINDOWS CLOSE
AND THE AIR CONDITIONING ON UNTIL THE SMOKE CLEARS. DRIVERS NEED
TO ALSO USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING IN THE SMOKE AS VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCE DOWN TO 2 MILES OR LESS AT TIMES IN THE SMOKE.

BAXTER