Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, May 7, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
255 PM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
LARGE LOW OFF THE EAST COAST WILL PREVENT EASTWARD PROGRESS OF
CURRENT WEATHER FEATURES IN OUR AREA. CLOSED LOW TO OUR WEST WILL
BECOME AN OPEN WAVE BY 00Z THURSDAY AS IT LINGERS OVER THE RED
RIVER VALLEY AND BECOMES A WEAK CLOSED LOW AGAIN BY THE END OF THE
SHORT TERM. STORMS OVER NORTHWEST ARKANSAS DROPPED FROM A HALF
INCH TO ALMOST THREE QUARTERS INCH OF RAIN DURING THE LAST
SYNOPTIC PERIOD. WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAIN
OVERNIGHT TO FIT THOSE RAIN REPORTS AND CURRENT ECHOES. ALSO DAY1
QPF DOES SHOW A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION TO CONTINUE FIRING ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHWEST. SOME ENERGY IMPULSES WILL MANAGE TO
SHOVE CONVECTION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH THE LEAST POPS IN
THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS WILL BE DICTATED BY DEW POINTS FOR THE MOST
PART. NORTHWEST ARKANSAS MAY GET SOME ADDITIONAL DROP IN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT WHERE THE HEAVIER RAINS FALL. MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE THEIR ABOVE NORMAL RUN DURING THE SHORT TERM.
&&

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MODEL SOLUTIONS CONT TO VARY IN REGARDS TO THE UPPER LVL PATTERN
THRU THE PD. HAVE TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH A WEAKENING
UPPER LOW DROPPING SWD THRU THE PLAINS. THE LATEST GFS TAKES THE
UPPER SYS ACRS THE MID SOUTH AND INTO THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY OVR
THE WEEKEND. BASICALLY WENT WITH PERSISTENCE ON TEMPS AND KEPT SMALL
CHCS OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHRA/TSRA THRU THE WEEKEND.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     63  82  62  82 /  30  30  30  20
CAMDEN AR         68  86  67  86 /  20  20  20  20
HARRISON AR       61  79  60  81 /  40  40  40  30
HOT SPRINGS AR    66  84  65  85 /  30  30  30  20
LITTLE ROCK   AR  67  85  66  84 /  30  30  30  20
MONTICELLO AR     66  86  65  86 /  20  20  20  20
MOUNT IDA AR      65  83  64  84 /  30  30  30  20
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  62  80  61  81 /  40  40  30  30
NEWPORT AR        63  81  62  83 /  30  30  20  20
PINE BLUFF AR     66  85  65  85 /  20  20  20  20
RUSSELLVILLE AR   63  82  62  83 /  40  40  30  30
SEARCY AR         65  84  64  83 /  30  30  30  20
STUTTGART AR      65  85  64  85 /  20  20  20  20
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...32 / LONG TERM...44

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
825 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-081000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
825 AM CDT MON MAY 7 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION OVER OKLAHOMA AND
EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WILL CONTINUE WORKING SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...WITH SOME STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY NORTHWEST OF A LINE
FROM SALEM...TO CLINTON TO MOUNT IDA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE TOWARD
THE AREA BUT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY DOING SO.

ON TUESDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DUE TO THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...AS THIS SYSTEM BRINGS THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN BY THE TIME IT REACHES
THE NATURAL STATE. AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

VISIT NWS LITTLE ROCK ON THE WEB. GO TO HTTP://WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK
ON CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

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