Showers and thunderstorms developed along the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and spread eastward across southeastern New Mexico and west Texas.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MAF wrote it up.
Showers and thunderstorms developed along the higher terrain of eastern New Mexico and spread eastward across southeastern New Mexico and west Texas.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Midland/Odessa, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 2:55 AM CST, 1 hour 47 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 .SHORT TERM... AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT...AUGMENTED BY COLD POOLS FROM MCS ACTIVITY OVER KANSAS...STRETCHED FROM NEAR KRTN EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...THEN FROM THERE NORTHEAST TO NEAR KMCI. PRESSURE RISES AOA 1 MB/HR COVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS...AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS LIKE THIS FRONT IS ABOUT AN HOUR AHEAD OF WHAT THE WRF PORTRAYS...AND HAVE BROUGHT THIS BOUNDARY INTO NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE NOON...WITH TRANSLATION THROUGH THE CWFA BY 06Z WEDNESDAY. ALOFT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL BREAK DOWN AS HEIGHT FALL OVER THE WEST COAST IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP CYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH THE WEAKENING RIDGE MAY CONTINUE TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT THIS MORNING TO MAINTAIN WEAK CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA. CONVECTIVE CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT AS MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. UPPER SUPPORT AS SHOWN THROUGH DIV Q PROGS WILL REMAIN WEAK AND MOST LIKELY DOMINATED BY CONVECTIVE EFFECTS...AND AS SUCH IT IS DIFFICULT TO PICK OUT AREAS WHERE QPF MIGHT BE MAXIMIZED. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE GFS SUFFERS FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK LATE TONIGHT OVER EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO... WHILE THE NAM DOES NOT APPEAR TO GENERATE ENOUGH QPF GIVEN THE FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE. HAVE STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE HPC QPF GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT BUT DID AUGMENT QPF OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SOMEWHAT. AS CONFIDENCE IN PLACEMENT OF MAX QPF IS LOW AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE OPTED TO DEFER ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL LATER...IF AT ALL. WHILE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST AN INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF AND ASSOCIATED FLASH FLOODING OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN OF WEST TEXAS...PRECIP AMOUNTS DO NOT APPEAR TO BE SUFFICIENTLY LARGE ENOUGH NOR IS THE SPATIAL COVERAGE OF QPF EXCEEDING 0.10 INCH LARGE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME. IF A BETTER QPF SIGNAL CAN BE GAINED IN LATER SHIFTS... THIS MAY ALL CHANGE...AND PROBABLY WILL...SO STAY TUNED. CHANCES FOR SEVERE CONVECTION DO NOT APPEAR TO BE THAT GREAT EITHER. BEST SHEAR AND BUOYANCY SEEM TO BE COLLOCATED OVER THE MARFA PLATEAU/ PRESIDIO VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND A FEW STORMS DOWN THAT WAY MAY APPROACH SEVERE CRITERIA. WILL HOLD OFF ON HIGHLIGHTS FOR NOW BUT WILL MENTION IN THE FORTHCOMING HWO. LASTLY...WE SHOULD SEE A POST-FRONTAL GAP FLOW EVENT DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH GUADALUPE PASS AS THE COLD FRONT CLIMBS UP THE GUADALUPES...BUT WINDS THERE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. THE NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MASS FIELDS THIS MORNING...AND WE HAVE USED ITS SOLUTION TEMPERED BY MOS AND LOCAL EFFECTS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST POPS WERE DRAWN OVER SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO DOWN ALONG THE PECOS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHERE THE GREATEST QPF EXISTS. MODERATE (HEAVY) PRECIP INTENSITY IS INDICATED WHERE QPF EXCEEDS 0.10 INCH/6 HR (0.30 INCH/6 HR). .LONG TERM... SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL EXIST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW DOMINATING THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WITH THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY ACTING AS A FOCUSING MECHANISM AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEDNESDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS EXPECTED IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PROVIDING STRONG MID-LEVEL LIFT. EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BRING RICH MOISTURE INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS. THESE LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CONSTANT FETCH OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AVAILABLE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT VALUES OF AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER WHICH WORKS OUT TO BE ABOUT 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL. THIS EVENT WILL BE MOSTLY A HEAVY RAIN EVENT DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS CERTAIN AREAS WHICH WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. HOWEVER...THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY...WHEN SBCAPE VALUES CLIMB ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND WIDESPREAD NEGATIVE LI/S EXIST. && .HYDROLOGY... THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO STARTING TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PWAT VALUES INDICATED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ARGUE FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE AREA HAS WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM RAINS RECEIVED THE LAST TWO WEEKS. BECAUSE OF THIS...THE GROUND IS SATURATED AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WITH ANY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON WHERE THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS OF RAIN WILL FALL BUT AGREE THAT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR SEVERAL DAYS THIS WEEK. AT THIS TIME A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE ISSUED BASED ON THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BIG SPRING TX 81 58 66 53 / 20 50 50 30 CARLSBAD NM 80 56 68 55 / 30 60 50 40 DRYDEN TX 89 65 80 62 / 20 50 40 40 FORT STOCKTON TX 87 60 74 57 / 30 60 40 40 GUADALUPE PASS TX 80 52 65 49 / 20 50 50 40 HOBBS NM 75 55 67 52 / 30 60 50 40 MARFA TX 82 55 75 53 / 30 50 40 50 MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 81 57 66 53 / 20 50 50 40 ODESSA TX 83 56 67 55 / 20 50 50 40 WINK TX 85 59 74 58 / 30 60 50 40 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...NONE. TX...NONE. && 70/74
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075- 079>082-258-160900- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS- NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES- DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL- VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR- REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND- GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA- PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL- GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS- 355 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 /255 AM MDT TUE MAY 15 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND WEST TEXAS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NON SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM THE LOWER TRANS PECOS NORTHEAST UP TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST OF THESE STORMS. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND AREAS OF FLOODING ACROSS WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WEDNESDAY...WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS WITH THOSE STORMS. LOCALIZED HIGH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS GAP LOCATIONS OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING GUADALUPE PASS...EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS ARE ADVISED TO MONITOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION AND PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL IMPACTS DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING BEGINNING TODAY. THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES... AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/ HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND
The El Paso radar (KEPZ), 179 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:38 UTC.
3 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The Automated Surface Observing System at Guadalupe Pass recorded several wind gusts of 63 mph. No damage was reported.
Penny to nickel sized hail fell on Texas State Highway 166 west of Fort Davis.
Nickel sized hail and a wind gust of 51 mph were reported at the Marfa Aerostat.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 39831, 32601, 32602, 32603.