Heavy rain from slow moving thunderstorms produced localized flooding across Buffalo Gap and Tuscola in southern Taylor County.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJT wrote it up.
Heavy rain from slow moving thunderstorms produced localized flooding across Buffalo Gap and Tuscola in southern Taylor County.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Angelo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 11:04 AM CST, 2 hours 55 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 1204 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 .UPDATE... LATEST SATELLITE AND WSR-88D DATA SHOW SHOWERS MOVING INTO STERLING COUNTRY FROM THE PERMIAN BASIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF LUBBOCK. TEMPERATURES IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTH OF THE FRONT RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S. RECENT UPDATE INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FIRST PERIOD SKY CONDITIONS AND POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES. 23/HUBER && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007/ AVIATION... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TIMING AND COVERAGE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MODELS ARE DISAGREEING ON THIS. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WILL NEED TO BE MADE AS THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. && PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007/ SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...POTENT COLD FRONT AIDED BY CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PAN HANDLE THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ALONG THE FRONT THIS MORNING WILL SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THIS MORNINGS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX HAS PUSHED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH AND THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTH AND WILL BE ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION AND THE COOL OUTFLOWS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPEED THE FRONT THROUGH THE AREA BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA FROM NORTH THROUGH SOUTH AS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ALONG ANY OUTFLOWS THAT THESE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE. MODELS ARE PRETTY CLOSE ON THE TIMING OF THE ACTUAL FRONT. THE DIFFERENCE SHOWS UP IN THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. THE NAM PRODUCES MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT...THEN PUSHES MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE COLD AIR BEING DEEP ENOUGH TO SHUT OFF ISENTROPIC INDUCED PRECIPITATION. THE GFS BRINGS THROUGH A MORE SHALLOW FRONT AND PRODUCES LESS CONVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT AND WAITS UNTIL AFTER FROPA. WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING PAST...AND EACH ONE INDUCING ISENTROPIC LIFT UP OVER THE FRONTAL SURFACE. OVERALL THE GFS IS THE COOLEST AND WETTEST OF ALL THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS. WITH THAT WILL TEND TO SHY AWAY FROM THE GFS AND GIVE IT A LITTLE LESS WEIGHT TO THE FORECAST. ALTHOUGH THE WILL NOT BE GOING AS COOL OR AS WET AS THE GFS...FORECAST WILL STILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH RESPECTABLE POP NUMBERS. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A THREAT WITH THIS EVENT. DURING THE SHORT TERM AFTER CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND COLD POOLS DEVELOP...COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL PROBABILITY OF THIS IS TOO LOW TO MENTION AS WELL. LONG TERM...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE COLDEST AND MOST WET OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INTO THE EXTENDED. WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES AND TWEAK POPS UP A TOUCH...BUT NOT GOING TOTALLY WITH THE GFS. EVEN THE NAM HINTS AT THE EVENTUAL RETURN OF THE FRONT BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AS ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS. SO THINK THERE WILL BE ANOTHER DECENT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE THURSDAY TO FRIDAY TIME FRAME. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE WEEKEND...MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND PROPAGATE TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. BRAZZELL && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... ABILENE 82 57 71 52 / 20 50 30 20 SAN ANGELO 86 59 74 54 / 20 40 40 30 JUNCTION 88 61 79 57 / 20 20 40 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && 23/HUBER
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 232 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139- 140-154-155-168>170-161945- FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO- CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD- TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE- MASON- 232 PM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...LOOK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. 23/HUBER
The Dyess AFB radar (KDYX), 61 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 20:01 UTC.
2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rains from a slow moving thunderstorm fell on Buffalo Gap in southern Taylor County. This caused quite a bit of localized flooding in and around Buffalo Gap and Tuscola.
Law Enforcement Officials reported County Road 151 was impassable due to flooding in Buffalo Gap.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 35458, 35461.