Drought in Pennsylvania, October 1 to 31, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AND EXTENDING DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL SLOWLY
SLIDE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE
OUR WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA AROUND MID WEEK, HOWEVER IT COULD CERTAINLY
CROSS THE REGION DRY EARLY THURSDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
THEN MOVES BACK IN FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
OUR SKY FORECAST TONIGHT IS BASED MORE ON GUIDANCE THAN
PERISTENCE. WE ARE SEEING HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INLAND
SLOWLY. OUR MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING MOISTURE GETTING TRAPPED
UNDER AN INVERSION ABOVE 2K FT, GENERALLY MORESO NW THAN SE. IT
ISNT WITH A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT WEVE GONE PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT OVER THE NW INSTEAD OF MOSTLY CLEAR. WE MAINTAIN MOSTLY
CLEAR ELSEWHERE AS MUCH OF THE PRESENT CLOUDINESS AROUND THE AREA
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH DUSK.

WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CLOUDS NW, WE WENT SOMEWHAT HIGHER
WITH THE MINS THERE THAN LAST NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, THE DEW POINTS ARE
A TAD HIGHER THAN LAST NIGHT, AND SO ARE THE MINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE STILL IS A SHORT WAVE PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT AND LIFT BY TO THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDINGS HAVE AN INVERSION ALOFT ON TUESDAY, SOME OF WHICH ARE
WEAK AND BREAKABLE AND SOME OF WHICH ARE NOT. WE THEREFORE ARE
MAINTAINING THE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY THAT
WE HAVE BEEN CARRYING, BUT WERE NOT BOOSTING THOSE CHANCES.

OTHERWISE, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF NEW ENGLAND WILL
MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW THAT OVERALL DOES NOT LOOK TERRIBLY
STRONG. A COASTAL TROF EMANATING FROM FLORIDA MIGHT SHARPEN THE
GRADIENT SOME IF IT DEVELOPS, BUT THERES NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR
THAT IN THE LATEST GFS OR ECMWF. WITH THE ANTICIPATED WEAK FLOW,
AM NOT CERTAIN ENOUGH ABOUT A FULL-BLOWN MARITIME REGIME
DEVELOPING THROUGH TUESDAY. WE DID PUT IN PATCHY FOG FOR LATE
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY, LEAN TOWARD GUIDANCE MAXES AND
MINS THAT LESSENED THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE, AND KEEP SOME
CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK, AND THEY LOOK A LOT LIKE THE HPC FORECAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

A MARINE FLOW OF UNCERTAIN STRENGTH SEEMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE MAY EVENTUALLY BE BUMPING
UP SKY COVER AND MENTIONING FOG IN THE NORMAL EARLY AUTUMN DIURNAL
MANNER. ALOFT, WE GENERALLY ARE UNDER A MID LEVEL RIDGE, ALTHOUGH
A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT APPROACH
LATE WEDNESDAY AND MOVE BY ON THURSDAY. THIS STILL DOES NOT LOOK
IMPRESSIVE AND WE STILL ONLY CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH IT.
NEITHER THE GFS NOR THE ECMWF IS TAPPING ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE
WITH THIS.

AFTER THAT PASSES, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS TO BE FAIRLY
STRONG, WHILE THE SURFACE FLOW MAY OR MAY NOT TURN MARITIME. THE
GFS IS DEVELOPING A COASTAL TROF AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEAKNESS IN
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE PUSHING UP FROM THE BAHAMAS, WHILE THE ECMWF
HAS THE MID LEVEL FEATURE DISPLACED FURTHER EAST AND SHOWS NO
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL TROF. HPC HAS LEANED TOWARD THE GFS AND
CONSEQUENTLY HAS POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY. PARTLY BECAUSE
WEVE BEEN HARD-PRESSED TO ACCUMULATE ANY RAIN RECENTLY, AND
PARTLY BECAUSE THE ECMWF IS A FAVORED MODEL, WEVE CUT THE POPS
BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE THAT DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON,
ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS BELOW 3000 FEET HAVE DEVELOPED OVER
PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE CLOUDS ARE BEING DIURNALLY DRIVEN
AND ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY THIS EVENING. WITH WINDS REMAINING
ONSHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, THE QUESTION OF SOME TYPE OF
REDEVELOPMENT ARISES.

OTHER THAN THE MET STAT GUIDANCE, WHICH IS PRODUCING CLOUDS BELOW
1000 FEET, ALL OTHER GUIDANCE, WHETHER IT BE STATISTICAL BASED OR
NOT, DEPICTS A DIFFERENT STORY WHICH I WILL FOLLOW. THAT IS, SOME
CLOUDS AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FEET TOWARD DAYBREAK. ILL HIT THE CLOUDS
A LITTLE HARDER ACROSS KRDG AND KABE WITH AN UPSLOPE CONTRIBUTION IN
PLACE. LATER TOMORROW, WHETHER OR NOT THE EARLY MORNING CLOUDS COME
TO FRUITION, THE REGION SHOULD SEE AFTERNOON STRATOCUMULUS DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND LOCALES TO THE EAST.

BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD, SOME MEASURE OF AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PERSIST INTO EARLY THURSDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE TERMINALS WILL
HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG OR LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOP THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL BE
IN CONTROL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT, COMING IN FROM THE
WEST, IS THEN FORECAST TO CROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ON THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS SET TO RETURN ON FRIDAY.

ALTHOUGH THE HIGH WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH MID
WEEK, IT WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS, WE WILL FIND OURSELVES MORE SO ON THE
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, RATHER THEN UNDER IT. BECAUSE OF THIS, SOME
INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED.

THE COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY LOOKS WEAK AT THIS TIME AND STARVED OF
MOISTURE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DELISI
SHORT TERM...DELISI
LONG TERM...DELISI
AVIATION...KRUZDLO
MARINE...KRUZDLO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
451 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-
060>062-067>071-010900-
NEW CASTLE-KENT DE-INLAND SUSSEX-DELAWARE BEACHES-CECIL-KENT MD-
QUEEN ANNES-TALBOT-CAROLINE-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-
CAMDEN-NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND-ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-
ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC-COASTAL OCEAN-
SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
CHESTER-MONTGOMERY-BUCKS-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-
451 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL DELAWARE...NORTHERN
DELAWARE...SOUTHERN DELAWARE...EASTERN MARYLAND...NORTHEAST
MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ430-431-450>455-010900-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS NORTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
DELAWARE BAY WATERS SOUTH OF EAST POINT NJ TO SLAUGHTER BEACH DE-
COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LITTLE EGG INLET TO GREAT EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM GREAT EGG INLET TO CAPE MAY NJ OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY NJ TO CAPE HENLOPEN DE OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE HENLOPEN TO FENWICK ISLAND DE OUT 20 NM-
451 AM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

EBERWINE