Damaging Wind and High Surf in Florida, October 1 to 2, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

.UPDATE...DEEP NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO AFFECT S FLA WITH
SFC WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH ALONG THE COAST. EARLIER CONVECTION
HAS DECREASED IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AND NOW IS ALL WELL
OFF THE SE CST. THE WRF MODEL SHOWS THE CONVECTION REMAINING
OFFSHORE BUT ONLY UP THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND THEN ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOPS ANOTHER ROUND RIGHT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. THE 00Z
MFL SOUNDING SHOWS THE PWAT STILL HOVERING TWO INCHES WITH NE FLOW
UP THROUGH 50H SO IT NOT AT ALL OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR THE
REDEVELOPING CONVECTION NEARER THE COAST LATER TONIGHT. THEREFORE,
DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY CHANGES TO EVENING UPDATES. THE MARINE
ZONES LOOK TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE AS WELL WITH THE STRONG NE WINDS
CONTINUING THIS WILL CERTAINLY CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR HIGH SURF
CONDITIONS ALONG PALM BEACH COAST AND HIGH RISK OF RIPS ATLC
BEACHES. 30/KOB

&&

.AVIATION...BASED ON CURRENT DATA FROM KAMX 88-D...IT APPEARS
THAT THERE MAY BE A SHORT BREAK IN THE SHRA ACTIVITY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH CURRENT SHRA/TSRA CONFINED TO
TERMINALS BETWEEN KHWO-KHST. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO
REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATER THIS EVENING...AS STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES ALONG NW PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING LOW TO
MID-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE BAHAMAS. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR TSRA
APPEAR TO COME ROUGHLY FROM 01/11-22Z...BUT WILL ONLY MENTION
VCTS/CB AND LOWER CIGS AT THIS POINT. CONDITIONS MAY BEGIN TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE EARLY MONDAY EVENING. AT KAPF...THERE ARE FEW
WEATHER-RELATED CONCERNS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-MORNING ON MONDAY... WHEN TSRA CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. GUSTY NE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS ON MONDAY... AND WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD FOR TERMINALS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC
COAST. 70/DD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007/

DISCUSSION...A LOW CLOUD SWIRL IS ANALYZED EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND TO THE NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. BETWEEN THAT LOW AND
THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA IS A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL
FAIRLY QUICKLY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF MONDAY NIGHT WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
AS THE LOW MOVES WEST NORTHWEST FURTHER INTO THE GULF, THE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY. AFTER MIDWEEK,
THE POPS WILL RETURN TO A MORE NORMAL LEVEL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL HOLD TEMPS DOWN NEXT FEW DAYS. HAVE
NOTICED THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF QPF ADVERTISED ON THE HPC WEBSITE
ALONG THE EAST COAST, BUT BOTH THE GFS40 AND NAM12 DID NOT IMPRESS
ME WITH ITS MOISTURE AND PRECIP PATTERN. COULD GET SHORT BURSTS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL BUT CAN BE HANDLED WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES AND
THROUGH THE HWO.

AVIATION...GUSTY NEELY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST.
WINDS AT APF WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE EAST COAST TAFS AND
SHRA/TS WILL BE LESS COMMON BUT VCSH/VCTS WILL BE LEFT IN TAF.
ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES MAY RECEIVE BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS WITH ANY QUICKLY PASSING SHOWER OR STORM. WIND GUSTS OF
25 TO NEAR 30KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY PASSING SHOWER.

MARINE...SEAS WILL START OUT AT 9 TO 13 FEET TONIGHT AND
EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 4 FEET BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AND SLOW
DOWN CONSIDERABLY BY TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH.

FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE HIGH ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE ANY
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ650-AMZ651-
     AMZ670-AMZ671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ610-AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
940 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174-011345-
GLADES-HENDRY-INLAND PALM BEACH-METRO PALM BEACH-COASTAL COLLIER-
INLAND COLLIER-INLAND BROWARD-METRO BROWARD-INLAND MIAMI DADE-
METRO MIAMI DADE-MAINLAND MONROE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-
COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL MIAMI DADE-FAR SOUTH MIAMI DADE-
940 PM EDT SUN SEP 30 2007

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ALL WATERS EXCEPT NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS...
...HIGH SURF ADVISORY COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES...
...SLIGHT RISK OF FLOODING SOUTHEAST COAST...
...SLIGHT RISK OF LIGHTNING ALL AREAS...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 20 TO 30 MPH WILL CONTINUE
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT. THE WIND, WHEN COMBINED WITH A
NORTHEAST SWELL, WILL CREATE A HIGH THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS.

THUNDERSTORMS: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH, LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP.

WIND: NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
LOCAL COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS FROM 20 TO
30 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. IN ADDITION TO
THIS, ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

FLOODING: THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES
PER HOUR. THIS WILL RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF ROADWAYS AND OTHER
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
HAS RECENTLY FALLEN.

WAVES: GULF STREAM SEAS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 10 TO 12 FOOT RANGE
OVERNIGHT, WITH SEAS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 8 TO 10 FOOT RANGE. SEAS IN THE OFFSHORE
GULF WATERS WILL BE IN THE 6 TO 8 FOOT RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NORTHEAST WINDS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON MONDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY
SUBSIDING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER
HIGH THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY.
SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, AND SHOULD FALL BELOW 6 FEET DURING THE DAY
ON WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND HEAVY RAINFALL, ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF THREE INCHES
OF GREATER.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

70/DD