Winter Storm in New Mexico, December 25 to 26, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
300 PM MST TUE DEC 25 2007

CORRECTED TYPO IN THIRD PARAGRAPH

...ONE STORM UNDERWAY WHILE ANOTHER APPROACHES...

.DISCUSSION...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIVES INTO THE STATE WITH A STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT. THIS
EVENING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW OVER CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE STATE...THAT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ALONG AND A
LITTLE SOUTH OF I-40. AFTER ENJOYING CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S...HOLIDAY TRAVELERS ON THE EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS COULD GET CAUGHT OFF GUARD BY THE
POWERFUL COLD FRONT AND SUDDEN ONSET OF SNOW THIS EVENING. BETWEEN
SUNSET AND MIDNIGHT AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
ALONG I-40 EAST OF TIJERAS CANYON TO TUCUMCARI AND ALONG U.S.
HIGHWAY 285 FROM ELDORADO TO MESA. AFTER MIDNIGHT...SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE EAST OF A LINE FROM ROY TO SANTA ROSA AND ROSWELL. BRISK
NORTH WINDS ON THE PLAINS WILL CREAT BLOWING SNOW THAT COULD CAUSE
TRAVEL PROBLEMS TO PERSIST EVEN AFTER THE SNOW STOPS. AFTER
SUNRISE...WINDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH...AND THE AREA WILL
ENJOY A BRIEF BUT CHILLY RESPITE FROM PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTH AND WEST AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. THE NAM
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT THEY AND
THE ECMWF AGREE THAT ANOTHER CLOSED LOW WILL FORM AS THE SYSTEM
CROSSES THE STATE. AT THIS TIME...MODELS PROG THE COLD CORE OF THE
LOW TO CROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXIO JUST SOUTH OF THE COLORADO BORDER
ON THURSDAY. THUS...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE AREA
ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40...WITH SPOTTIER PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF
I-40. MORE WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTH. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD LINGER IN THE NORTHEAST THRUSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE DIMINISHING AREAWIDE ON FRIDAY. THE SYSTEM WILL DRIVE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY...RESULTING IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

A SMALL CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS FORECAST THE ARRIVAL OF A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT AS WE BEGIN THE NEW YEAR...WHICH COULD BRING THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR THIS SEASON.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE BOUNDARY IMPACTING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS S/SE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
STRONG N TO NW WINDS OF 15-25KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KTS SHOULD BE
COMMON IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT THE CENTRAL MTS/VALLEYS THRU 06Z. EXPECT A BRIEF DROP
IN VIS/CIGS...GENERALLY IN THE MVFR RANGE. MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO HEAVY IFR/LIFR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL DEVELOP EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE UNTIL AFTER 06Z NEAR THE ERN SLOPES TO
AROUND 12Z-15Z ALONG THE TX BORDER. FOR MORE SPECIFICS CONCERNING
PCPN TIMING AND WIND STRENGTH...PLEASE SEE LATEST TAFS. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO EXPAND FROM NW TO SE ACROSS NM TONIGHT THROUGH MID-
MORNING WEDNESDAY. NEXT AVIATION DISCUSSION SCHEDULED FOR 10Z.
DPORTER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  10  36  18  30 /  10   0  20  40
GALLUP..........................   1  37  11  26 /  10   0  10  30
GRANTS..........................   1  38  12  28 /  30   0   0  20
GLENWOOD........................  17  43  20  42 /  10   0   5  10
CHAMA...........................  -9  29   2  23 /  60   0  20  50
LOS ALAMOS......................   1  35  11  30 /  50   0   0  40
RED RIVER....................... -10  26   2  18 /  70   0  20  50
TAOS............................  -4  29   7  22 /  60   0  10  40
SANTA FE........................   8  34  13  28 /  60   0   0  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  10  35  16  30 /  60   0   0  30
ESPANOLA........................   5  36  12  35 /  50   0   0  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  20  40  23  36 /  50   0   0  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  12  41  18  38 /  50   0   0  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  15  38  19  34 /  50   0   0  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  16  41  21  38 /  40   0   0  10
SOCORRO.........................  17  43  18  42 /  30   0   0  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  12  38  15  32 /  80   0   0  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............   6  39  12  33 /  80   0   0  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  18  41  21  42 /  50   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  19  38  19  37 /  50   0   0   5
RATON...........................   7  32  12  26 /  80   0   5  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  10  30  14  28 /  80   0   0  30
ROY.............................  15  32  17  27 /  80   0   0  20
CLAYTON.........................  16  36  18  26 /  70   0   0  40
SANTA ROSA......................  19  40  21  35 /  80   0   0  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  20  40  21  34 /  70   0   0  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  20  41  20  39 /  60   0   0  10
CLOVIS..........................  21  40  23  40 /  60   0   0  10
PORTALES........................  22  41  24  42 /  60   0   0  10
ROSWELL.........................  26  47  25  45 /  50   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ002>005.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ006-007-010>013-016>021.

&&

44/46

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MST TUE DEC 25 2007

UPDATED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHTS STORM

NMZ001>021-026-261200-
NORTHWEST PLATEAU-NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING JEMEZ-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS-HARDING COUNTY-FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS-
WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS-
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA-
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/ESTANCIA VALLEY-
CONCHAS LAKE/GUADALUPE COUNTY-QUAY COUNTY-
SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS/UPPER GILA REGION-LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY-
LINCOLN COUNTY HIGH PLAINS/HONDO VALLEY-
CAPITAN/NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS-DE BACA COUNTY-
CHAVES COUNTY PLAINS-ROOSEVELT COUNTY-CURRY COUNTY-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF CHAVES COUNTY-
600 AM MST TUE DEC 25 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND UPPER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS UNTIL 5 AM
MST SUNDAY MORNING.  SNOW AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 5
INCHES...EXCEPT 3 TO 6 INCHES ABOVE 7500 FEET IN THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS ABOVE 7500 FEET IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THE SNOW WILL BE
PARTICULARLY HEAVY DURING THE EVENING HOURS AND SHOULD DROP
VISIBILITY WELL BELOW ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES ALONG I-40 FROM TIJERAS
CANYON TO TUCUMCARI AND ALONG U.S. HIGHWAY 285 FROM ELDORADO TO
MESA. GUSTY NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE AREAS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER QUICK MOVING STORM SYSTEM MAY IMPACT NORTHERN AND EASTERN
NEW MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

REMEMBER...WEATHER CAN CHANGE VERY RAPIDLY. ALWAYS USE THE LATEST
FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PLANNING PURPOSES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE WEB SITE OR BY CALLING
1.888.386.7637.

44