A low pressure trough moving slowly across the Upper Great Lakes brought moderate snow to portions of western Upper Michigan on the 25th and 26th.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A low pressure trough moving slowly across the Upper Great Lakes brought moderate snow to portions of western Upper Michigan on the 25th and 26th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 25, 6:28 PM EST, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 628 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2007 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... AMPLIFIED YET QUICK MID LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE CONUS THIS CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. CLOSEST FEATURE IMPACTING THE WEATHER IN THE U.P. IS SHORTWAVE TROF FM NORTHERN ONTARIO INTO WESTERN DAKOTAS. LEAD SFC TROUGH WITH THE SHORTWAVE EXTENDS FM WESTERN LK SUPERIOR INTO SOUTHWEST MN. AS NOTED EARLIER...FOR THE MOST PART DRY AIR IN THE H9-H6 LAYER PER GRB 12Z SOUNDING PROHIBITED MUCH PCPN FM REACHING INTO THE CWA THUS FAR. HOWEVER...WITHIN THE LAST FEW HOURS H7-H6 FRONTOGENESIS WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 150KT H25 JET IS SPURRING ON STREAK OF LGT-MOD SNOW FM NORTHERN NEB INTO WESTERN UPR MI. INSTIGATING FEATURES SLOWLY LIFT NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING SO EXPECT SNOW TO PRESS INTO CNTRL CWA EARLY THIS EVENING THEN GRIND INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS BY LATE THIS EVENING. OVERALL...LIFT WILL BE WANING THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY SHEARS OUT. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATE THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT SHOULD MOSTLY REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS. KIND OF A TRICKY FORECAST INTO WEDNESDAY. SEEMS A GO THAT PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER ALONG SFC TROUGH THAT STALLS OUT OVER THE CNTRL UPR MI. ALL GUIDANCE WITH EXCEPTION OF LATEST NAM PLACES EMPHASIS FOR NEXT ROUND OF SNOW OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF CWA ON WED WITH NOT AS MUCH PCPN OVER SOUTH AND EAST. EVEN THOUGH THE SFC TROUGH WILL BE FARTHER EAST THAN THIS AXIS...THINK BETTER TEMP GRADIENT IS AT 925-850MB...WHICH EVEN IN THE NAM...IS OVER LK SUPERIOR AND NORTHERN CWA. SO...PREFER THE NON NAM DEPICTION FOR PCPN ON WED. AS FOR QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS...MAGNITUDE OF LIFT ALONG RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE (PWATS NEAR 200 PCT OF NORMAL) IS WEAK TO START AS BETTER H85-H5 Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IS MORE CONCENTRATED OVER OHIO VALLEY. BETTER FORCING IN FORM OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPR LEVEL JET...H7 FRONTOGENESIS...AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ARRIVES WED AFTN AND WED EVENING SO PCPN SHOULD INCREASE 18Z WED THRU 06Z THU. INITIALLY PREFER THE LOWER QPF PROJECTIONS FM NAM/UKMET/SREF VERSUS THE HIGHER QPF FM THE GFS/CANADIAN. WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT...HIGHER QPF FM THE GFS SEEMS REASONABLE AS DOES A SHIFT TO THE HIGHER POPS TOWARD CNTRL AND EAST ZONES. GFS SOUNDINGS FOR WED AFTN INTO EVENING INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW RATIOS CLOSER TO 20:1 DUE TO LOTS OF LIFT IN THE DENDRETIC SNOW GROWTH REGION AND A SATURATED PROFILE WITH AT LEAST WEAK LIFT BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS WED INTO WED NIGHT COULD SNEAK INTO A LOW END ADVY OVER PORTIONS OF CNTRL CWA. ADDITIONALLY...WEAK UPSLOPE IN THE SUB H85 LAYER COULD BOOST SNOW TOTALS A BIT MORE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTH CENTRAL CWA. WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE LIFTING TO THE EAST SHOULD DIMINISH THE SNOW LATE WED NIGHT. SINCE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOW WOULD OCCUR LATE IN THE 2ND PERIOD WILL LET LATER SHIFTS EVALUATE NEED FOR ANY HEADLINES. .LONG TERM (THU THRU TUE)... MAIN FCST CONCERN DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM FRI/FRI NIGHT. -SHSN WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TOWARD THE UPPER LAKES. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND -9C...YIELDING A LAKE-850MB DELTA-T AROUND 12C...PROBABLY WONT SEE ANY LES...AND PCPN MAY END A BIT FASTER THAN WHAT IS REFLECTED IN THIS FCST ISSUANCE. ECMWF/GFS HAVE SHOWN EXCELLENT CONTINUITY ON A POTENT SHORTWAVE GOING NEGATIVE TILT AND DEEPENING AS IT MOVES FROM THE SRN ROCKIES THU INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES FRI. GIVEN THE LOOK OF THE NEGATIVE TILT UPPER AIR PATTERN AND IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS (12HR 500MB HEIGHT FALLS UPWARDS OF 200M UNDER TRACK OF SHORTWAVE)...SEEMS THAT THE SFC RESPONSE SHOULD BE A BIT MORE ROBUST THAN WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING. IN FACT...THE 12Z GFS HAS COME IN A LITTLE DEEPER WITH THE SFC LOW TRACKING NE THRU NRN LWR MI (STRENGTHENING SFC LOW 17MB IN 18HRS AS IT MOVES FROM MO/AR FRI MORNING TO NRN LWR MI BY 06Z SAT). GLOBAL CANADIAN IS SIMILAR IN STRENGTHENING...JUST 6HRS SLOWER AND LITTLE FARTHER E THAN GFS. DEEP LAYER FORCING AS DEPICTED BY QVECTOR CONVERGENCE IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE AS WOULD BE IMPLIED BY THE RATHER PRONOUNCED NEGATIVE TILT OF SHORTWAVE AS IT REACHES THE WRN LAKES. FROM AN ISENTROPIC STANDPOINT...290K SFC SHOWS ABOUT A 9-12HR PERIOD OF MOIST ASCENT. WITH MIXING RATIO OF 3G/KG AVBL... THAT WOULD TRANSLATE TO UPWARDS OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WITH GFS CROSS SECTIONS SHOWING -EPV ABOVE FRONTOGENESIS ZONE...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVIER BANDED PCPN. SO...INITIAL THINKING IS FOR A QUICK 5 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW OVER ROUGHLY A 12HR PERIOD. MODEL CONTINUITY ON TRACK OF SYSTEM HAS BEEN GOOD AND STILL FAVORS ROUGHLY THE E HALF TO 2/3RDS OF FCST AREA FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. WILL CERTAINLY BE AN ADVY EVENT AND IS BEGINNING TO LOOK MORE FAVORABLE FOR WARNING AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE LWR WARNING CRITERIA OF 6 INCHES OR MORE IN 12HRS FOR THE COUNTIES THAT DO NOT BORDER LAKE SUPERIOR. SAT THRU TUE...GENERAL CONSENSUS OF RECENT MEDIUM RANGE MODEL RUNS INDICATES AMPLIFICATION OF THE FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LEAD TO AMPLIFICATION ACROSS NAMERICA AS RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE W COAST...LEADING TO DEEPENING TROF OVER CNTRL NAMERICA. SO...ARCTIC AIR SHOULD MAKE A RETURN NEAR THE END OF THIS FCST PERIOD THOUGH IT SHOULD ONLY BE BRIEF AS PATTERN TRENDS MORE ZONAL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...AFTER DEPATURE OF THE FRI/FRI NIGHT SNOW SYSTEM...SFC HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE TO THE WRN GREAT LAKES SAT. EXPECT LIGHT LES SAT AS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE JUST LOW ENOUGH...BUT WITH WINDS BACKING FROM NW TO W AS HIGH PRES RIDGE ARRIVES...LES WILL SHIFT THRU THE DAY. AWAY FROM LES...IT SHOULD BE A DRY DAY. LEADING INTO THE AMPLIFICATION EARLY NEXT WEEK...DETAILS OF THE PATTERN AS IT AFFECTS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ARE UNCERTAIN. GENERALLY FAVORED THE ECWMF PER HPC DISCUSSION. LOCATION OF UPPER TROF WILL SUPPORT SFC TROFFING OVER THE UPPER LAKES AND PROBABLY WARRANTS LOW POPS FOR -SHSN OVER MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FCST AREA. INITIALLY (SUN/MON) 850MB TEMPS MAY NOT BE SUFFICIENT FOR PURE LES (PER ECMWF)...BUT COOLING TREND BY TUE WILL BRING INCREASING LES INTO THE PICTURE AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AT LEAST -16C. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SAT THRU MON WILL TREND CLOSER TO NORMAL TUE. && .AVIATION (FOR THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE)... THE SNOW AND LOW CLOUDS ARE SPREADING INTO KCMX AND WILL SPREAD INTO KSAW LATER THIS EVENING. AFTER A LULL IN SNOW AT KCMX LIGHT SNOW WILL RETURN. AS THE SNOW BECGINS AT KSAW THIS EVENING IT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLS IN VICINITY OF KSAW. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF WIDEPSREAD SNOW AT BOTH SITES IS ON WEDNESDAY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW CEILINGS TO STAY IFR/LOW MVFR AND VSBY TO VARY BTWN IFR AND MVFR. && .MARINE (FOR THE 4 PM LAKE SUPERIOR FORECAST ISSUANCE)... LOW PRESSURE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS LK SUPERIOR THIS EVENING. TROUGH WILL STALL JUST TO THE S ON WED...AND A LOW PRES CENTER WL MOVE ALG THIS BNDRY ON WED NIGHT TO NORTHERN LOWER MI ON THU. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BTWN THIS LO AND HI PRES IN ONTARIO WL SUPPORT NE WINDS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE OVER LK SUPERIOR...MOST PERSISTENT IN THE FAVORABLE TERRAIN FUNNELING OF THE WRN LAKE. IN ITS WAKE...LOOK FOR A HI PRES RDG TO BRIEFLY BLD INTO WESTERN LK SUP ON THU NGT BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS FROM THE PLAINS INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI LATE FRI. AS THIS LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC ON SAT...A HI PRES RDG WL DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BLO 30 KNOTS. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && SHORT TERM...JLA LONG TERM...ROLFSON AVIATION...DLG MARINE...JLA
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 500 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2007 MIZ001>003-009-084-261300- KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON-GOGEBIC-SOUTHERN HOUGHTON- 500 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2007 /400 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. MIZ004>007-010>014-085-261300- BARAGA-MARQUETTE-ALGER-LUCE-IRON-DICKINSON-MENOMINEE-DELTA- SOUTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT-NORTHERN SCHOOLCRAFT- 500 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2007 /400 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL UPPER MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO LOCALLY 6 INCHES BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. EXPECT THE GREATEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WEST OF A MUNISING TO ESCANABA LINE. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-261300- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF A LINE FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO GRAND PORTAGE MN BEYOND 5NM-SAXON HARBOR WI TO BLACK RIVER MI- BLACK RIVER TO ONTONAGON MI- ONTONAGON TO UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- UPPER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO EAGLE RIVER MI- EAGLE RIVER TO MANITOU ISLAND MI- MANITOU ISLAND TO POINT ISABELLE MI- POINT ISABELLE TO LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL MI- LOWER ENTRANCE OF PORTAGE CANAL TO HURON ISLANDS MI INCLUDING KEWEENAW AND HURON BAYS-HURON ISLANDS TO MARQUETTE MI- MARQUETTE TO MUNISING MI-MUNISING TO GRAND MARAIS MI- GRAND MARAIS TO WHITEFISH POINT MI- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM SAXON HARBOR WI TO UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER INCLUDING ISLE ROYALE NATIONAL PARK- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM UPPER ENTRANCE TO PORTAGE CANAL TO MANITOU ISLAND MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- LAKE SUPERIOR WEST OF LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR EAST OF A LINE FROM MANITOU ISLAND TO MARQUETTE MI AND WEST OF A LINE FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER BEYOND 5NM FROM SHORE- LAKE SUPERIOR FROM GRAND MARAIS MI TO WHITEFISH POINT MI 5NM OFF SHORE TO THE US/CANADIAN BORDER- 500 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2007 /400 PM CST TUE DEC 25 2007/ THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. LMZ221-248-250-261300- GREEN BAY NORTH OF LINE FROM CEDAR RIVER MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE-SEUL CHOIX POINT TO POINT DETOUR MI- 5NM EAST OF A LINE FROM FAIRPORT MI TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE- 500 PM EST TUE DEC 25 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE LAKE MICHIGAN. .DAY ONE...TONIGHT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED. ROLFSON
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 winter weather. Local standard time, as filed.
The Watton observer reported inch per hour snowfall rates at times while measuring eight inches of total snowfall.
An observer eleven miles west-southwest of Watersmeet measured 6.5 inches of total snowfall.
Mohawk reported inch per hour snowfall rates and measured 5.5 inches of total snowfall.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, December 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 70975, 70976, 70974.