Flash Flood and Hail in Missouri, May 15, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1011 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

....MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...
CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING LIKELY FOR AN EPISODE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.  RUC AND LAPES DERIVED 0-1KM COMPUTED CAPE ARE
SUGGESTING VALUES RANGING FROM 500-1000 J/KG EAST OF ONGOING
CONVECTION/COLD POOL.  LATEST RADAR RETURNS SHOW UPDRAFTS BEGINNING
TO FIRE CLOSER TO THE EDGE OF THE COLD POOL...INDICATING INCREASING
DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE LOWER TROP.  THIS WOULD ALSO SUGGEST A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IN UPDRAFT STRENGTH AS CONVECTION SHIFTS
EAST INTO INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR.  0-6KM WIND SHEAR IS VERY WEAK
WITH ONLY ABOUT 15-25KTS OF MAGNITUDE ALONG VECTORS.  THIS
ENVIRONMENT WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN HAZARDS WILL BE HAIL UP TO
THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS AND WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  A
SERIES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS IS LIKELY TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN OZARKS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.  STAY TUNED.

CRAMER

&&

.AVIATION...

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...

LOOKING FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE INITIAL 6 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST AT BOTH JLN/SGF WITH VFR CEILINGS FROM CONVECTION IN THE
PLAINS OVERSPREADING THE AREA.  COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS WITH CONVECTION POSSIBLE FROM
AROUND 16Z TO 22Z TODAY.  COULD SEE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
WITH THE CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  HAVE KEPT IN VFR CEILINGS
BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE EVENING HOURS.  WINDS WILL VEER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.  COULD
SEE GUSTS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS UP
AROUND 20 TO 22 KTS.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1057 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161600-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
1057 AM CDT TUE MAY 15 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
  HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.
  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO AREAS
  ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING.
  THIS ACTIVITY WILL PROGRESSIVELY SPREAD TO THE
  SOUTHEAST...AFFECTING AREAS SOUTHEAST OF THE INTERSTATE 44
  CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

  A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE INTERSTATE
  44 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY. SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST
  OF INTERSTATE 44 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
  MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE COLD FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH
  THIS UNSTABLE AIRMASS THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
  REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL...
  SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. WITH WIND SHEAR EXPECTED
  TO BE WEAK...ONLY A FEW...MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
  ANTICIPATED. IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
  AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND
  WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL INTERACTING WITH VERY MOIST SOIL
  CONDITIONS ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF WEST
  CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS NEAR
  RIVERS AND STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE
  FROM NEOSHO TO ROLLA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

CLAYCOMB