Thunderstorms with very heavy rains, caused minor to moderate river flooding over portions of northern and central Missouri, April 25th through April 27th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
Thunderstorms with very heavy rains, caused minor to moderate river flooding over portions of northern and central Missouri, April 25th through April 27th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 24, 5:45 PM CST, 9 hours 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 645 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007 ...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .DISCUSSION... /317 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007/ WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS LARGE UPR LVL CIRCULATION SPINNING OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. IN RESPONSE...SFC CYCLOGENESIS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER WESTERN KANSAS WITH WARM FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH NORTHERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. HAVE WATCHED SEVERAL AREAS OF CONVECTION FORM THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI DEVELOPED NOT ONLY DUE TO ISENTROPIC LIFT AHEAD OF THE UPR LVL STORM SYSTEM...BUT ALSO MAY BE AIDED BY A WEAK GRAVITY WAVE PROPAGATING THROUGH THE AREA. SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH CENTRAL KS AND OK FORMED OUT AHEAD OF THE SFC DRYLINE IN THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN ABLE TO PROPAGATE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...RADAR TRENDS SHOW THESE STORMS STRUGGLING AS THEY MOVE TO INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...HAVE NOTICED A SLIGHT CLEARING ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...DUE IN PART TO SUBSIDENCE ON THE DEPARTING GRAVITY WAVE. THIS CLEARING HAS ALLOWED TEMPERATURES /WHICH HAVE BEEN SLUGGISH TODAY/ TO JUMP SOME 6 DEGREES IN THE PAST HOUR AND A HALF. IN ADDITION...STRONG WARM FRONT LIFTED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S TO SURGE NORTHWARD. AS NOTED ON THE 18Z SOUNDING FROM TOPEKA...STEEP SFC LAPSE RATES ALREADY EXIST...WITH A WEAK MID/LOW LEVEL CAP IN PLACE. FEEL THAT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS TEMPERATURES ARE VERY CLOSE TO THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES. SPC RUC ANALYSIS INDICATES MUCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN 35-45 KNOTS...MAKING SUPERCELLS THE PREDOMINATE STORM TYPE. COULD SEE A VARIETY OF SVR WX TYPES...WITH STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES POINTING TO A GOOD POSSIBILITY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WITH WARM FRONT STALLED OVER THE NORTHERN AREA...SFC WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR REMAIN BACKED LEADING TO ENHANCED 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES...SO THERE MAY BE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN KS AND WESTERN MO AND IN AREAS CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT. LATER THIS EVENING...CONVECTION WHICH FIRED NEAR THE DRY LINE IN CENTRAL KANSAS WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE CWA. HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS CONVECTION ONCE IT PUSHES EASTWARD. SHEAR WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE WHEN THE STORMS ARRIVE...HOWEVER UNSURE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN DUE TO THE TIMING OF ARRIVAL. REGARDLESS WILL MENTION SEVERE WORDING IN THE GRIDS THROUGH 06Z AS AM STILL EXPECTING STORMS TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH STRENGTH TO POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ON WEDNESDAY...UPR LOW AND ATTENDANT SFC LOWS WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTH AND TO THE EAST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS WELL...LEAVING MAINLY THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR. WHILE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD BET THROUGHOUT THE DAY...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LARGELY DEPENDANT ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING/SFC HEATING THAT CAN BE ATTAINED. MY CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WE WILL HAVE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER...WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BEING THE RULE. THE SECOND STORY WITH THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLOODING. POINT SOUNDINGS FROM THE WRF/GFS INDICATE PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.0-1.5 INCHES AREAWIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANY STORMS WHICH DO DEVELOP WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL AS THEY MOVE THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE MOST SUSTAINED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS IOWA AND AND EXTREME NORTHERN MISSOURI...AS THETA-E GRADIENT AND H850 FRONT CENTER THEMSELVES FURTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...HELD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MISSOURI...AS COUNTY FFG INDICATES THAT MOST AREAS CAN TAKE 2-2.5 INCHES OF RAINFALL. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A SHIFT IN LARGE SCALE DYNAMICS. UNFORTUNATELY THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO PUSH EASTWARD. AS A RESULT...PUSHED POPS WELL INTO THE THURSDAY TIME PERIOD...AS UPR LVL DYNAMICS SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS. TEMPERATURE WISE...LOWERED TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE AREA WILL SEE LARGE AMOUNTS OF CLOUD COVER AND RELATIVELY STRONG CAA ON FRIDAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO LOWER TEMPS EVEN FURTHER...HOWEVER LITTLE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS COULD LEAD TO MESOSCALE TEMPERATURE SPIKES THAT CANNOT BE ADDRESSED THIS FAR OUT. .LONG TERM... MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER WILL MAKE A RETURN BY THE WEEKEND. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES LARGE H500 RIDGE SETTLING INTO THE AREA. THERE ARE A FEW KINKS IN THE FORECAST BEFORE WE GET TO THAT POINT THROUGH. MODELS INDICATE A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLIDING QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE MID-WEEK STORM SYSTEM ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. AS MOISTURE WILL BE RATHER LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THE BEST FORCING WILL BE FURTHER SOUTH...LEFT POPS OUT OF THE GRIDS ATTM. ONCE WE GET TO THE PLEASANT PORTIONS OF THE WEEKEND...CURRENT INDICATIONS POINT TO DRY WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S AREAWIDE. DUX && .AVIATION DISCUSSION... CEILINGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE MVFR CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING AS MOST OF CONVECTION REMAINS TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES. WATCHING FOR POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT TOWARD MIDNIGHT AS UPPER JET MAX MOVES NORTH ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS. BY MIDNIGHT CEILINGS SHOULD START TO COME DOWN AS SURFACE FRONT IS SUPPRESSED SOUTH IN WAKE OF CONVECTION COMPLEX THAT SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI. FRONT SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THEM IN THE LOWER STRATUS DECK WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. PC && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...NONE. KS...NONE.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO 1037 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-251200- ATCHISON KS-MIAMI-LINN KS-DONIPHAN-LEAVENWORTH-WYANDOTTE- JOHNSON KS-ATCHISON MO-NODAWAY-WORTH-GENTRY-HARRISON-MERCER- PUTNAM-SCHUYLER-HOLT-ANDREW-DE KALB-DAVIESS-GRUNDY-SULLIVAN-ADAIR- BUCHANAN-CLINTON-CALDWELL-LIVINGSTON-LINN MO-MACON-PLATTE-CLAY- RAY-CARROLL-CHARITON-RANDOLPH-JACKSON-LAFAYETTE-SALINE-HOWARD- CASS-JOHNSON MO-PETTIS-COOPER-BATES-HENRY- 1037 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS. .DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...SOME PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY ON WEDNESDAY...A STATIONARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM NEAR KANSAS CITY TO MACON BY MIDDAY. A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE SOUTH OF THIS FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION...BUT AS THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM DRIFTS OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY ALLOW A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO MARSHALL LINE. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER A FEW AREAS MAY EXCEED TWO INCHES BEFORE THE STORM EXITS THURSDAY... LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLOODING OR RAPID RIVER RISES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. BOOKBINDER
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
9 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The 102 River near Maryville crested at 18.25 feet, or 0.25 feet above flood stage.
The Tarkio River near Fairfax crested at 17.36 feet, or 0.36 feet above flood stage.
The Blackwater River near Valley City crested at 22.45 feet, or 0.45 feet above flood stage.
The Moniteau Creek near Fayette crested at 19.59 feet, or 3.59 feet above flood stage.
The South Grand River near Urich crested at 26.27 feet, or 2.27 feet above flood stage.
The Big Creek at Blairstown crested at 21.10 feet, or 1.10 feet above flood stage.
The Platte River near Agency crested at 23.34 feet, or 3.34 feet above flood stage.
The Chariton River near Prairie Hill crested at 17.96 feet, or 2.96 feet above flood stage.
The Grand River near Chillicothe crested at 24.44 feet, or 0.44 feet above flood stage.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, April 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 64796, 64794, 64799, 64795, 64798, 64792, 64791, 64797, 64793.