Hail in Kansas, April 25, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
202 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OF ACTIVE
SPRING LIKE WEATHER. TODAY ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THE UPPER LOW WHICH AT 12Z WAS LOCATED OVER NC NM/SC CO. AS THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS COLDER AIR LOCATED
OVER NE CO AND SW NEBRASKA WILL RETURN TO WESTERN KANSAS. 12Z
ANALYSIS WAS SHOWING 85H TEMPS AROUND 5C ACROSS NEBRASKA WITH SFC
TEMPS AT 17Z MAINLY IN THE 40S. THIS IS THE AIR MASS WHICH BE
MOVING INTO WESTERN KS WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES
EAST ACROSS KS. MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING EAST ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER ALONG WITH SOME MID LVL FGEN
WEDNESDAY WILL NOT ONLY KEEP SKIES CLOUDY BUT SOME -RW WILL ALSO
BE LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. GIVEN THIS AND GOOD CAA WILL LOWER
HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE SFC LOW PROGGED IN NC OK AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEBRASKA AND
NE COLORADO WILL PRODUCE SOME WINDY CONDITIONS AS WELL. WINDS WILL
APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE DAY BUT AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS MARGINAL AND WILL LET NEXT SHIFT REEVALUATE THIS.

SEE LITTLE REASON TO DEVIATE FROM CURRENT TREND OF ENDING PCPN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING FROM THE WEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BASED ON CLEARING SKIES AND PROGGED DWPTS IT COULD BE A
CHILLY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER APPEARS WINDS MAY STAY SOME SO
DECIDED NOT TO STRAY FAR FROM CURRENT FORECAST. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE IN OUR SW WHERE A FEW MODELS SUGGEST THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
WILL BE LOCATED.

DAYS 3-7...

NOT MANY CHANGES PLANNED IN THE EXTENDED. MODELS CONTINUING TREND
OF SWING ANOTHER SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS BY FRIDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WITH PASSING SYSTEM.
SOUTHWEST KANSAS SHOULD BE ON NORTH SIDE OF SURFACE LOW. ISENTROPIC
LIFT IS MINIMAL DURING THIS TIME BUT ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION OF
SHOWERS. WILL SEE PATTERN SHIFT TO MORE RIDGING ACROSS THE PLAINS BY
THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
AS NEXT UPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS CWA. COOLER NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL BE PULLED INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS KEEPING OVERALL
TEMPERATURES ON THE COOLER SIDE. STARTING SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE AREA UNDER THE RIDGE.
H85 TEMPERATURES WARM INTO MID TO UPPER TEENS ON SUNDAY AND TO +20C
BY MONDAY. COULD EVEN SEE MID TO UPPER 80S BY MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

DISCUSSION FOR 18Z TAFS.

DRY SLOT HAS WORKED INTO GCK WITH DRYLINE NOW EAST OF DDC. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED IN GCK AND WILL CLEAR SHORTLY IN DDC. FURTHER NORTH IN
HYS, CONTINUE TO SEE CLOUDS AS DRYLINE IS STILL WEST. DID ADD
MENTION OF VCTS ACROSS THIS LOCATION CONSIDERING CONVECTION COULD
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF TAF SITE AT ANYTIME. AS POWERFUL SYSTEM GAINS
STRENGTH AND MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES, LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOWERS
WILL WRAP AROUND THE BACKSIDE. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
FROM IN GCK BY 05Z WED. SHOWERS AND MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY BY THIS
TIME. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS ALL
SITES. DDC WILL START SEEING SHOWERS BY 07Z WED AS CLOUD DECKS
LOWER. AT HYS, DECKS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 1500 FT AGL BY 03Z WED.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN THROUGH TAF PERIOD IN DDC/HYS. MORE INTERMITTENT
SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY IN GCK THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  46  50  39  62 /  80  80  30  10
GCK  44  48  39  63 /  60  40  20  10
EHA  43  52  41  68 /  60  40  10   0
LBL  43  51  40  67 /  60  40  20   0
HYS  46  49  41  60 /  90  40  30  10
P28  52  56  43  64 /  80  80  30  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

FN18/30/30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1021 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-251515-
TREGO-ELLIS-SCOTT-LANE-NESS-RUSH-HAMILTON-KEARNY-FINNEY-HODGEMAN-
PAWNEE-STAFFORD-STANTON-GRANT-HASKELL-GRAY-FORD-EDWARDS-KIOWA-
PRATT-MORTON-STEVENS-SEWARD-MEADE-CLARK-COMANCHE-BARBER-
1021 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007 /921 PM MDT TUE APR 24 2007/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WEST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT OUR WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/DDC

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