Drought in Mississippi, April 25 to 30, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
958 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

.DISCUSSION...NO CHANGES MADE TO FORECAST THIS EVENING.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007 (TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT) LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE REGION UNDER
THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A MID TO UPPER LEVEL GULF RIDGE.  A LONG
FETCH OF MOISTURE ON VAPOR WAS COMING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS
OLD MEXICO SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE REGION. THE STORM SYSTEM WAS
CENTERED OVER EASTERN COLORADO...PUSHING INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST WAS HELPING
TO GENERATE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. EXPECT CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO
CROSS THE REGION AT THE 325 TO NEAR 335K LEVELS THIS EVENING. AREA
RADARS WERE PICKING UP VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF RAINFALL ACROSS THE
ARKLAMISS AS MOST OF THE ENERGY WAS CONCENTRATED WEST OF THE REGION.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO RECOGNIZE THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE COMING FROM THE GULF...WITH THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. FOR TONIGHT EXPECT MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WITH A LIMITED CHANCE OF RAIN FOR MAINLY THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AS
THE MAIN FOCUS WILL STAY IN THE PLAINS. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT SEEMS THAT THE MODEL POPS FOR THE SHORT TERM
SEEMED TO BE A LITTLE MORE REASONABLE. IT GENERATES HIGH POPS FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHEN THE HEART OF
THE SYSTEM PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD
NORTH INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND THIS WILL PROVIDE THERMAL
CAPPING TO AT LEAST IN SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO REACT TO THE HIGH GULF MOISTURE THAT IS IN
PLACE. MODEL HPC QPF SHOWS A BASIN AMOUNT OF A HALF TO AROUND ONE
INCH WITH THIS SYSTEM.

FOR TONIGHT...STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE PLAINS WILL BE THE
OF THE PRIMARY FOCUS...WHICH WILL KEEP OUR AREA MOSTLY DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CIRCULATE DRYER AIR INTO THE REGION
...WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S. ONCE AGAIN
WITH THE GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WE WILL GET ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW
CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. WILL KEEP THE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR THE
SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE
WILL MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE
AFTERNOON TO HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS....MAINLY THE WEST HALF OF THE REGION. HAVE A FEW CONCERNS
ABOUT THE TYPE OF AIRMASS AND INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE STANDING BY
WHEN THIS SYSTEM PUSHES TOWARD THE REGION. SURFACE INSTABILITY DOES
NOT LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE ON THE MODELS...THE RIDGE WILL CAP THE
SOUTHEAST UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS OR EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER
SOME OF THE PROS TO POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER IS THAT THE AMOUNT OF
SHEAR...THE AMPLITUDE OF THE NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM AND SOME JET
DYNAMICS WILL HELP TO AID THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE STORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OF THE PERIOD.
THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SYSTEM WILL COME ACROSS THE WEST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55
DURING THE EVENING. WILL KEEP THE SAME GENERAL WORDING ON THE
HWO FOR THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP THE BEST POPS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN WENT CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST WITH
HIGHS FROM THE MIDDLE 70S NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 80S SOUTHEAST
FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S WEST TO THE LOWER 60S EAST./17/

.LONG TERM...MAINLY QUIET FCST IN THE EXTENDED. GFS DOES CONTINUE TO
SHOW A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH SAT WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SHRA TO THE AREA. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE LATEST GFS
BEGIN BOTH FASTER AND WEAKER WITH THIS FEATURE. DUE TO THAT IT IS
SHOWING LESS PRECIP THAN BEFORE. OTHER THAN THE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
IN THE SAT FEATURE THE FCST REMAINS UNCHANGED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD AT THE SFC THU AND FRI AS THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS JUST BEFORE
THE SAT DISTURBANCE. AFTER THAT THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD
IN FORCE...RESULTING IN A WARM AND DRY FCST SETTING UP. SINCE THERE
IS LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE TO THE FCST THE PREVIOUS LONG TERM
DISCUSSION WILL BE APPENDED TO THIS. /CAB/

MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING STARTS BUILDING FROM SW CONUS ACROSS THE
SRN PLAINS FRIDAY. LATEST FEW RUNS OF GFS NOW HINTING THAT A MINOR
TROUGH COULD DELAY THE RIDGE FROM REACHING THE SERN CONUS UNTIL
SUNDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL COLD POOL OF -16C AT 500MB SWINGS FROM THE
OZARKS ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING AT LEAST SOME
RISK FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS TO OUR REGION. WILL PLAY DOWN THIS
FEATURE FOR NOW KEEPING SMALL POPS IN ZONE PACKAGE. THEN BY MONDAY...
THE RIDGE TAKES CONTROL AND CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. MEANWHILE...WEAK SURFACE HIGH OF 1021MB SETS UP NEAR THE
ARKLATEX SUNDAY AND STILL IS POSITIONED OVER NW FL COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO MEX MOS IN MOST CASES EXCEPT TO RAISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON A FEW DAYS WHERE A MORE RAPID WARMUP LIKELY DUE TO
INCREASED SUNSHINE. NET RESULTS ARE FOLLOWING BRIEF COOL DOWNS ON
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR CLIMATOLOGY
TEMPERATURE REGIME SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY PERIOD. /40/

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

03

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
246 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
251946-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
246 PM CDT TUE APR 24 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO JUST EAST OF THE RIVER.

THE STORMS WILL RESULT FROM A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND SURFACE
LOW IMPACTING THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND ADEQUATE LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS.

THE PRIMARY RISK WITH THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE URGE TO KEEP UP
WITH WEATHER UPDATES ON THIS STORM SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

...NON PRECIPITATION...
PATCHY FOG WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES BELOW ONE MILE AT TIMES EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS
WILL OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH OF A BROOKHAVEN TO QUITMAN LINE.  ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS DOWN BELOW A MILE SHOULD BE ISOLATED AND
BRIEF.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHES TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ADEQUATE LEVELS OF WIND SHEAR ALONG WITH
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS.

LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL
HAVE THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INITIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.

RESIDENTS ARE URGED TO KEEP IN TOUCH WITH LATER FORECASTS
CONCERNING THIS POTENT SPRING STORM SYSTEM.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY NIGHT MAY 1ST.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.