High Surf in Hawaii, January 28 to 31, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN JAN 28 2007

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT MODERATE TO STRONG KONA WINDS...UNSETTLED WEATHER
AND LARGE SURF THIS WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
CENTRAL ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE CLEARING BEHIND THIS
FRONT...SO MOST OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT
WILL BE OVER MAUI COUNTY TODAY. TWO MORE FRONTS WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS PLUS LOCALLY STRONG KONA WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS TO
REFLECT THE CLEARING SKIES AND LACK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY BEHIND THE
WEAKENING FRONT. THE FRONT IS NEAR MOLOKAI AT THE MOMENT...BUT IT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH MAUI AND STALL LATER TODAY.

STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER HALEAKALA AND THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA
AND MAUNA LOA THIS MORNING. THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THESE SUMMITS. WE WILL MONITOR CONDITIONS HERE
IN CASE HIGH WIND WARNINGS NEED TO BE ISSUED. REGARDLESS...THE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE THE WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TEAM NOTED...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH
PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS STRONG LOW HAS PUSHED THE FRONT DOWN OVER THE
ISLANDS. AS A RESULT...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE HAS SHIFTED SOUTH OF
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND OUR PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

AS THE CURRENT FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES OVER MAUI COUNTY
TONIGHT...A SECOND FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLANDS. RECENT GFS MODEL
RUNS INDICATE THIS SECOND FRONT WILL APPROACH KAUAI MONDAY EVENING
AND STALL. THEREFORE...IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW MUCH RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
EAST OF KAUAI FROM THIS FRONT.

A THIRD FRONT ARRIVING NEXT THURSDAY MAY BE STRONGER THAN THE
OTHERS. REGARDLESS...STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT MAY
REQUIRE WIND ADVISORIES FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF SOME ISLANDS...IN
ADDITION TO THE SUMMITS. HIGH WIND WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME
SUMMITS AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...THE MAIN ENERGY FROM THE NEW NORTHWEST SWELL HAS SHOWN UP
AT BUOY 1 IN THE 800 AM HST READING. THE BUOY MEASUREMENTS OF
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT WERE RUNNING ABOUT 3 FEET BELOW THE WAVE
WATCH III FORECAST UNTIL THAT TIME. ALSO...THE DOMINANT SWELL PERIOD
IS RUNNING CLOSE TO 12 SECONDS. THIS MEANS THAT THE TRAVEL TIME OF
THE SWELL TO THE ISLANDS WILL BE LONGER THAN MOST OF OUR RECENT
NORTHWEST SWELLS...SINCE THE ENERGY FROM THESE RELATIVELY SHORT
PERIOD SWELLS TRAVELS AT SLOWER SPEEDS.

THEREFORE...EXPECT THE NEW NORTHWEST SWELL TO REACH KAUAI LATER
TODAY. THIS SWELL WILL PRODUCE SURF ABOVE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD
ALONG NORTH AND WEST-FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS WHEN IT
FINALLY ARRIVES. AN EVEN LARGER WEST NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY
INCREASE SURF HEIGHTS UP TO THE WARNING THRESHOLD BY MONDAY. THE
SURF IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EVEN LARGER MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE
LARGE SWELLS AND STRONG WINDS WILL REQUIRE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR MOST MARINE ZONES THIS WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...STRONG SOUTHWEST AND WEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE SLOPES OF HALEAKALA. THIS
FRONT MAY ALSO BRING SOME SHOWERS TO MAUI LATER TODAY. HOWEVER...NO
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.

THE STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-WEEK.
A STRONGER FRONT MAY BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
OF NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF
MAUI.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR HALEAKALA SUMMIT AND BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT HST WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
HAWAIIAN WATERS...EXCEPT MAALAEA BAY.

&&

HOUSTON