High Wind in Alaska, October 5, 2007

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
600 AM ADT FRI OCT 5 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...OUR LOW IN THE GULF RAPIDLY DEEPENED OVERNIGHT
REACHING AROUND 975 MB AS IT PAST JUST SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND.
CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS OR EVEN SLIGHTLY DEEPENS THE STRENGTH
OF THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NE TO MOVE ONSHORE AROUND ICY BAY SHORTLY
AFTER NOON TODAY...HOWEVER...A QUICK PEEK AT THE 12Z NAM12 HAS
THE LOW BOTTOMING OUT AT 973 MB ABOUT 35 NM DUE WEST OF PAYA AT
21Z. FROM HERE LOW RE-DEVELOPS ACROSS SOUTHERN YUKON WITH A SMALL
RESIDUAL LOW HUGGING THE NE GULF COAST. THE ASSOCIATED STRONG
OCCLUSION IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL
WORK ITS WAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

BOTH BIORKA ISLAND AND MIDDLETON ISLAND RADARS CONFIRM THE
PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL JET WITH A BAND OF 64 KT OR GREATER WINDS
BETWEEN 1.5K AND 3.5K FT. IT IS EXPECTED THAT SOME WIND GUSTS
WILL WORK THERE WAY DOWN TO THE SURFACE AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE
RUGGED COASTLINE. WINDS IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS EXPECTED
TO REACH MAX STRENGTH BETWEEN 15Z AND 21Z AT STORM FORCE WITH
SOLID GALES EXPECTED FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. SHOULD SEE
WINDS SHIFT TO A SW GALE BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF A SECOND WRAP OF THE OCCLUSION WILL DEVELOP AND SUPPORT A
WESTERLY STORM JUST SOUTH OF THE LOW. EXPECT GALES THROUGH ALL OF
THE INNER CHANNELS THROUGH MID DAY THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH BELOW
SMCR BY LATE TONIGHT. WIND ADVISORIES WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE
ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES GENERALLY UNTIL 4 PM. ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL WHERE GRADIENTS WILL REMAIN STRONG
THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH LOW MOVING THROUGH YUKON AND PRESSURE
RISES ACROSS SOUTHERN GULF AND WILL KEEP GALES AND WIND ADVISORY
GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT. COASTAL AND OCEAN ENTRANCES STILL  HAVE A
CHANCE AT ADVISORY LEVELS GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT IN SW FLOW.

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN RATES WITH FRONT AND CAN EXPECT TO SEE 1
TO 2 INCHES MOST LOCATION AND AROUND 3 INCHES FOR THE WETTER
COASTAL AND SOUTHERN LOCATIONS. WILL GO TO SHOWER TERMINOLOGY
THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL AND BY TONIGHT FOR INNER CHANNELS.
FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 2800 FEET...TEMPERATURES REMAIN
COLD ENOUGH FOR WET SNOW BUT OUR CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WHITE
PASS AND ROAD AREAS WILL NOT RECEIVE ENOUGH PRECIPITATION TO GO
WITH A WINTER STORM AND WILL LIMIT SNOWFALL TO 3 INCHES AT WHITE
PASS.

.LONG RANGE...AREA WILL REMAIN UNDER INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER TROF
OVER THE NE PAC THRU THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE THEIR USUAL
DIFFERENCES ON THE SMALLER SCALE STUFF...BUT THE ECMWF AND UKMET
ARE FAIRLY CLOSE ON THE MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS...SO THEY WERE
PREFERRED FOR THIS LONG RANGE FORECAST PACKAGE.

FIRST SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE A LOW DEVELOPING AND MOVING NE
TOWARD THE SRN AREA LATE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
FAIRLY GUNG HO ABOUT DEVELOPING THIS LOW AS IT WILL TAP INTO THE
COLD AIR OVER THE WRN GULF. ONE CONCERN THOUGH IS THE UPPER
SHORTWAVE LOOKS RATHER ELONGATED ALONG THE FLOW TO CAUSE SUCH A
DRAMATIC DEEPENING...AND WE MAY END UP WITH A FLATTER LOOKING
LOW. THE UKMET WAS A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
DEEPER/FURTHER N ECMWF/NAM...AND THE WEAKER AND FURTHER S GFS...
THUS IT WAS USED TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS LOW
SHOULD BRING MORE STEADY RAIN TO THE SRN AREA SAT AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT...WHILE NW AREA REMAINS SHOWERY. PRECIP SHOULD GO BACK TO
ALL SHOWERS AREA WIDE SUN ONCE LOW JUMPS INLAND E OF THE AREA.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SE INTO THE GULF LATE SUN
AND HELP DEVELOP A SMALL LOW OVER THE SRN GULF...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ERN GULF MON BY ECMWF AND UKMET. THIS
MAY BRING MORE STEADY PRECIP TO THE AREA THEN. THEN ANOTHER LOW
IS FORECAST TO CRANK UP WELL S OF THE AREA AND MOVE N INTO THE
PANHANDLE AROUND MIDWEEK. MAY SEE A SHORT DRY SPELL AROUND TUE OR
TUE NIGHT ESPECIALLY N AREA...BUT WILL KEEP IN AT LEAST 20 POPS
FOR NOW. MORE PRECIP IS LIKELY BY WED ESPECIALLY S HALF OF THE
AREA.

ECMWF/UKMET DEVELOP AN EVEN STRONGER LOW AND MOVE IT N INTO THE
ERN GULF AREA BY LATE WEEK. WHILE THE ECMWF WAS PREFERRED FOR
THIS PACKAGE...DID WEAKEN THE WINDS WITH THE LOW SOME AS THE
ECMWF IS THE DEEPEST OF ALL WITH THIS SYSTEM.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HWW AKZ017
         NPW AKZ018-029
MARINE...STORM PKZ043-052
         GALE PKZ011-042

MM/RWT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JUNEAU AK
716 AM ADT FRI OCT 05 2007

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HIGH SUST WINDS  100 W YAKUTAT           59.53N 142.62W
10/05/2007  M52.00 MPH       PKZ052             XX   BUOY

            CAPE SUCKLING BUOY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS
            OR 52 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 56 KNOTS OR 64 MPH. COMBINED SEAS
            19 FEET.

0700 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 100 W YAKUTAT           59.53N 142.62W
10/05/2007  M67.00 MPH       PKZ052             XX   BUOY

            CAPE SUCKLING BUOY REPORTED A PEAK WIND GUST OF 58 KNOTS
            OR 67 MPH.

0700 AM     NON-TSTM WND GST 61 W ELFIN COVE         58.25N 138.00W
10/05/2007  M60.00 MPH       PKZ043             AK   BUOY

            FAIRWEATHER GROUNDS BUOY REPORTED A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 52
            KNOTS OR 60 MPH.

&&

NWF