Scattered thunderstorms just to the northeast of Guide Rock dumped very heavy rain across eastern Webster County. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches was common, most of which fell in the Elm, Crooked and Willow Creeks.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GID wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms just to the northeast of Guide Rock dumped very heavy rain across eastern Webster County. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches was common, most of which fell in the Elm, Crooked and Willow Creeks. The runoff caused the Republican River near Guide Rock to overflow its banks for a time.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 4, 11:47 PM CST, 2 hours 33 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 1247 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2007 .AVIATION...06Z TAF. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE KGRI TERMINAL AREA AND ANY THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD REMAIN EAST AS WELL. OTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST OVERNIGHT IS A BAND OF STRATUS THAT HAS DEVELOPED TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE ADVECTING WESTWARD...AND MODELS DEPICT THIS TREND AS WELL...SO WILL KEEP ANY MENTION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE AREA RAISES SOME CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING BY EARLY MORNING...BUT BELIEVE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT THIS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY LATE FRIDAY MORNING...AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. SHOULD LOSE THE GUSTS FRIDAY EVENING...BUT STILL RETAIN A STEADY SOUTH WIND. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2007/ SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. FOCUS IS ON THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THRU THE PERIOD ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS. STRATUS LINGERED ACROSS OUR CWA THRU MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...HOWEVER TRENDS DURING THE LAST HOUR OR SO INDICATE THE CLOUDS BREAKING UP ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF OUR CWA. LAPS DATA INDICATE SURFACE BASED CAPES HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 1500 J/KG IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTH INTO KANSAS AND SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. MODELS HAVE TRENDED MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE. MOST UNSTABLE CAPES ARE PROGGED BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 J/KG...WITH SHEAR OF 20 TO 30KTS AND A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. THE LOW LEVEL INCREASES TO AROUND 50KTS TONIGHT AND CONVECTION SHOULD SUSTAIN AS IT LIFTS NORTH AFTER DARK. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON FRIDAY ON WHETHER OR NOT CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP. THE NAM INDICATES CONVECTION IN AN ISENTROPIC LIFT...WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME WHEREAS THE GFS REMAINS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO INCLUDE A LOW POP FOR THE AFTN AND EVENING HOURS AS CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THE CHANCE...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH. WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY IN A TIGHT SURFACE GRADIENT AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS TO OUR WEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM WELL INTO THE 80S AND THE STEADY WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES MILD. LONG TERM...STARTING AT 12Z SATURDAY. PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER...AND WINDS THIS WEEKEND. THE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...BEFORE FORMING A MID LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES. MODEL CONSENSUS IS POINTING TOWARDS THE MID LEVEL LOW BEGINNING TO PUSH NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...EVENTUALLY CROSSING OUR AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT CONTINUES PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS AS THOUGH SUNDAY WILL BE A WET DAY ACROSS OUR AREA. CHANCES FOR RAIN INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AS THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE ROCKIES INCREASES WAA AND DPVA ACROSS THE AREA. THIS MID LEVEL FORCING...WORKING IN CONCERT WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN ONE HALF OF THE CWA...IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE FRONT. RAIN CHANCES WILL NOT BE CONFINED TO THE EAST HOWEVER...AS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE BULK OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WAA REMAINS STRONG AND DPVA INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL SYSTEM. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE MID LEVEL SYSTEM WILL PUSH AWAY FROM THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WHICH MAY LEAD TO LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING. THERE MAY ALSO BE LINGERING PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR WEST AS A DEFORMATION ZONE SETS UP OVER THE AREA. AS A RESULT...HAVE INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND WEST FOR MONDAY AND KEPT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST DRY. AS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS INDICATED THE SURFACE FRONT RAPIDLY PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY...CLEARING THE ENTIRE AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SCENARIO WOULD EFFECTIVELY PUSH THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY TO THE EAST AND KEEP OUR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ELEVATED. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS HOWEVER IS SHOWING A SLOWING TREND...ESSENTIALLY KEEPING THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH LATE SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO...ASSUMING SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...COULD CERTAINLY KEEP HIGHER INSTABILITIES ACROSS OUR AREA NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHICH COULD RESULT IN SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HWO CURRENTLY HAS STRONG TO SEVERE WORDING FOR THIS WEEKEND...AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES THREE DAYS OUT FEEL THIS IS FINE. ONE LAST FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE THE WINDS ON SATURDAY. A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE FRONT RANGE WILL HELP DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. INHERITED FORECAST ALREADY HAD STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AOB 20KTS...WHICH LOOKS FINE BUT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN VELOCITY. && .GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NE...NONE. KS...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 256 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2007 KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087- 051200- PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE- SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK- GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN- WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER- 256 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2007 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. .DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND MAY BE STRONG OR SEVERE. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. && MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE: HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS (ALL LOWERCASE) WESELY/PFANNKUCH
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE 938 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2007 KSZ006-007-050315- JEWELL-SMITH- 938 PM CDT THU OCT 4 2007 ...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR JEWELL AND SMITH COUNTIES... AT 933 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR BELLAIRE...OR 32 MILES EAST OF PHILLIPSBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. * THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... LEBANON BY 945 PM CDT DIME SIZE HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
949 PM CDT THU OCT 04 2007
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0739 PM HAIL 1 S LEBANON 39.80N 98.56W
10/04/2007 E0.88 INCH SMITH KS LAW ENFORCEMENT
&&
KINGThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Republican River south of Guide Rock topped its banks shortly after midnight on October 5 and remained in flood until around noon.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nebraska in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Nebraska, October 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 55679.