On Tuesday Night 3/20 a very strong storm developed in the Southwestern Gulf to 962 MB with a very strong warm front approaching the SE Alaska Coast. Although the storm center weakened to 971 MB early Wednesday morning, 3/21, in the Central Gulf, more warm, moist air moved over arctic air for the Northern and Central Panhandle causing heavy snow.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
On Tuesday Night 3/20 a very strong storm developed in the Southwestern Gulf to 962 MB with a very strong warm front approaching the SE Alaska Coast. Although the storm center weakened to 971 MB early Wednesday morning, 3/21, in the Central Gulf, more warm, moist air moved over arctic air for the Northern and Central Panhandle causing heavy snow. The storm remained strong enough for strong wind along the Central SE Alaska Coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 20, 5:00 AM AKST, 11 hours 30 minutes earlier.
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION 1100 AM ADT TUE MAR 20 2007 .SYNOPSIS... .SHORT RANGE...A MESSY WEATHER SITUATION IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALASKA FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LARGE SCALE LOW NOW APPROACHING THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM AT LEAST IN THE SHORT TERM PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. THE FRONTAL BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE OUTER COAST LATE TONIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO RE-DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES...AND QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHWARD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM...SO IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND RAINFALL. THE MAIN PROBLEM WITH THIS FORECAST WILL BE THE TIMING OF THE CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE EARLY CHANGEOVER WILL BE THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES AS THEY WILL BE THE FIRST TO EXPERIENCE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SNOW AMOUNTS IN THESE AREAS LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WONT MEET ADVISORY OR WARNING CRITERIA. THE INTERIOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE WILL LIKELY SEE SUFFICIENT SNOW FOR AT LEAST AN ADVISORY WHILE THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE AND YAKUTAT WILL MOST LIKELY MAKE WARNING AMOUNTS. THE CHANGE TO RAIN SHOULD COMMENCE AROUND 12Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND MAY CAUSE SOME URBAN FLOODING AS DRAINAGE AREAS ARE BLOCKED DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON THE GROUND. WILL LIKELY BE SENDING OUT AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA THAT HAVE AT LEAST A FOOT OF SNOW STILL ON THE GROUND. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT DOES NOT APPEAR THERE WILL BE MORE THAN NUISANCE FLOODING...BUT THIS MATTER WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. THE FINAL PROBLEM WILL BE THE WIND WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO TIGHTEN LATE TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE GULF. EXPECT TO SEE ADVISORY WIND GUSTS TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE WINDS WILL THEN SPREAD INLAND AND WILL AFFECT THE ENTIRE PANHANDLE. THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING AS THE SYSTEM FILLS AS IT MOVES INLAND. .LONG RANGE... LONG RANGE MODELS MOVE THE NEXT SYSTEM INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA THU NIGHT BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED AND TRAGECTORY. THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN IS SLOWER AND DEEPER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS KEEPING A LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF WHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOVES THE LOW QUICKLY INTO NORTHWEST CANADA BY FRI AFTERNOON. EXPECT A LEADING LOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE FRI BUT LEAVE A RESIDUAL LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA UNTIL A NEW LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF TO REPLACE IT OVER THE WEEKEND. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE ENSEMBLE DIVERGENCE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN WED NIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW MOVES INTO THE GULF. PRECIPITATION WILL BE PRIMARILY RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK HOWEVER AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE EASTERN GULF INCREASING OUTFLOW FROM INTERIOR PASSES WILL LIKELY CHANGE THE RAIN TO SNOW IN THE NORTHERN PANHANDLE THU NIGHT. .AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES PUBLIC...WINTER STORM WATCH AKZ017>022-024>026 SNOW ADVISORY AKZ029 WIND ADVISORY AKZ017>029 MARINE...GALE WARNING PKZ021>022-033-036-041>043-051>053 SCA PKZ011>012-031>032-034>035
3 heavy snow, 1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Yakutat WSO augmented ASOS (PAYA) measured 7.5 inches of new snowfall for 12 hours 2100-0300 AKST at 0300 AKST 3/20.
A CO-OP observer in downtown Haines measured 7.5 inches new snowfall for the 12 hours preceeding 0730 AKST 3/21.
Wrangell AWOS/CO-OP measured 7 inches new snowfall for 12 hours ending at 1500 AKST 3/20.
The highest peak wind at Sitka (PASI) during this event was only 46 MPH. |At NDBC Moored Buoy 46084 at 2300 AKST 3/20, the gusts were measured at 50 KT in 14 FT seas. Headland winds were readily 65 MPH around this time in Zone 23 based on the buoy reading and surface analyses.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, March 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 17799, 17803, 17821, 17823.