Flash Flooding and Flood in Missouri, March 20, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
228 AM CDT TUE MAR 20 2007

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL TODAY OVER THE
WESTERN CWA.

CONVECTION STARTING TO GET MORE ACTIVE FROM NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
INTO THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF MISSOURI OR ROUGHLY AROUND THE SURFACE
FRONT.  WIND FIELDS BEHIND THE FRONT NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND BEST
PRESSURE RISES WERE WELL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  LIKELY WILL NOT SEE
MUCH FURTHER SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING SO
CURRENT CONVECTIVE PICTURE WILL LIKELY NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE LOCATED FROM THE TX/OK
PANHANDLE SOUTH INTO WEST CENTRAL TX.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
EJECT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS BY
12Z AND SHOULD ENHANCE THE CURRENT CONVECTION.  THE SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO WESTERN MISSOURI BY MIDDAY AND BEST CONVECTION
WILL LIKELY SHIFT TO SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.  FRONT
WILL ALSO LIKELY BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA.  CURRENT PLAN IS TO LET THE CURRENT
FLASH FLOOD WATCH RIDE OUT THROUGH 7 AM ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN
MISSOURI AND TO PUT OUT A NEW WATCH FOR THE WESTERN 3 TIERS OF
COUNTIES FOR TODAY.  CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPERATURE RISES TO A MINIMUM TODAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BUT
BEST CHANCE WILL BE SHIFTING NORTHWARD AND OUT OF THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT.  DID NOT EXTEND THE WATCH PAST 7 PM THIS EVENING AS DAY
SHIFT WILL NEED TO RE-EXAMINE THE CONVECTIVE SITUATION THROUGH THE
DAY TO SEE IF IT WILL BE WARRANTED.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
MILD WITH CLOUD COVER AND STEADY SOUTHERLY WIND.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FAIRLY WARM 800-700 MB LAYER
SETTING UP A DECENT CAPPING INVERSION ACROSS THE AREA.  HAVE REMOVED
POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY FOR THIS REASON.  TEMPERATURES
SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE REACHING THE 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH BACK INTO THE NORTHWEST CWA
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD SEE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CREEP
BACK INTO THE AREA BY THEN.  BETTER CHANCES WILL ARRIVE BY THURSDAY
AS THE FRONT CUTS ACROSS THE CWA.  AS WITH TODAY...THE SOUTH MOST
RESTING PLACE FOR THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BE AROUND THE MISSOURI
ARKANSAS BORDER BEFORE LIFTING BACK NORTH AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS STILL IN DISAGREEMENT HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER
LOW AS IT EJECTS NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST U.S.  HAVE NOT
CHANGED MUCH IN THE EXTENDED FOR THIS REASON.

LINDENBERG

&&

.AVIATION...

AVIATION WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN ACTIVE FOR BOTH THE JOPLIN AND
SPRINGFIELD AIRPORTS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD.  A STALLED OUT
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  A SECOND FOCUS
FOR PRECIPITATION EXISTS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE FORM OF AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE
REGION DURING THE DAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY INCREASE THE AREAL
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL RETREAT NORTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...EVENTUALLY ALLOWING WIND DIRECTIONS TO RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH.  MEANWHILE CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST...WITH CEILINGS BOUNCING
BACK AND FORTH FROM VFR TO MVFR.  AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS
OVER THE AIRPORTS...VISIBILITIES WILL FALL TO VALUES LESS THAN VFR
AT TIMES...POSSIBLY INTO THE IFR CATEGORY.

CRAMER

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALONG/SOUTH HIGHWAY THROUGH 7 AM.
FLASH FLOOD WATCH WEST OF GALENA TO OSCEOLA THROUGH 7 AM - 7 PM.
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH BOURBON...CRAWFORD...CHEROKEE COUNTIES 7 AM
TO 7 PM.

WFO SGF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
810 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2007

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-201100-
BOURBON-CRAWFORD-CHEROKEE-BENTON-MORGAN-MILLER-MARIES-VERNON-
ST. CLAIR-HICKORY-CAMDEN-PULASKI-PHELPS-BARTON-CEDAR-POLK-DALLAS-
LACLEDE-TEXAS-DENT-JASPER-DADE-GREENE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT-NEWTON-
LAWRENCE-CHRISTIAN-DOUGLAS-HOWELL-SHANNON-MCDONALD-BARRY-STONE-
TANEY-OZARK-OREGON-
100 PM CDT MON MAR 19 2007

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI
OZARKS AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHERN MISSOURI AND
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS EVENING WILL TRIGGER WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
DIME SIZED HAIL.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT
TONIGHT AS IT BEGINS TO STALL OUT NEAR THE MISSOURI ARKANSAS
BORDER. GIVEN THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS REPEATEDLY AFFECTING THE SAME AREA...THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING LATE
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 60.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE
ARKANSAS BORDER BEGINS LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH AT TIMES.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WHILE SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY
ANY REPORTS OF HAIL...HEAVY RAINFALL OR FLOODING TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF(ALL LOWERCASE)

IZZI/DSA