Drought in Florida, March 20 to 31, 2007

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
411 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT TRENDS IN REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY FROM KAMX 88D INDICATE
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE OFFSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND ADJACENT BEACH AREAS.  AS THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY MOISTEN UNDER PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME...THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.  VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW STRONG AGREEMENT
ON THE PLACEMENT OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER FLORIDA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...WITH THE POLAR BRANCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROGGED
TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE U.S.-CANADIAN BORDER FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST U.S. AND INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC BY MID-WEEK...WITH THE COMBINATION OF EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW AND WEAK SUPPORT FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALOFT REMAINING
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW AND GRADUALLY MOISTENING LOW-LEVELS WILL
ULTIMATELY ALLOW THE THREAT FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO WORK A
BIT FURTHER WESTWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA EVERY PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
STILL SUGGESTS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH MARKEDLY BY
NEXT WEEKEND...AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  THIS FEATURE WILL FORCE THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY IN
PLACE EASTWARD OVER THE BAHAMAS...AND LIMIT PRECIPITATION COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING BOTH MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR MID TO LATE MARCH. DESPITE DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AMONG THE GFS/ECMWF...IT APPEARS THAT THIS UPPER RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS CUTOFF LOW OPENS UP
AND EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ALLOWING
SHOWER CHANCES TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...
EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD WITH SCATTERED CU AT THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS WITH EVEN A LIGHT SHOWER FROM TIME TO TIME. A
STRONGER EASTERLY WIND SURGE WILL MOVE ONTO THE EAST COAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BRINGING WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KNOTS AND A
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE EASTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
A VERY WINDY PERIOD IS IN STORE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...AT LEAST
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AS SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS WITH MOVEMENT OF SEVERAL HIGH PRESSURE CELLS INTO THE
NORTH ATLANTIC. LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO
THE GULF STREAM CURRENT...AND THUS EXPECT WAVE HEIGHTS TO REMAIN
IN CHECK. HOWEVER...FORECASTED WIND SPEEDS ALONE WILL BE ENOUGH
TO JUSTIFY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...
BISCAYNE BAY...AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WILL ALSO BE HEADLINING A SCEC
STATEMENT FOR THE GULF WATERS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...A VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL ATLANTIC COAST
BEACHES UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY RELAX BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD INTO
THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW REGIME NOW ESTABLISHED ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...EXPECT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE
DURATION OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  66  75  70 / 20 10 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  67  77  70 / 20 10 20 30
MIAMI            77  67  77  69 / 20 10 20 30
NAPLES           79  62  80  62 / 10 -  10 20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

LONG TERM...70/DD
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...65/GS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2007

FLZ063-066>075-202350-
GLADES-HENDRY-PALM BEACH WESTERN-PALM BEACH EASTERN-
WESTERN COLLIER-EASTERN COLLIER-WESTERN BROWARD-
BROWARD METROPOLITAN-WESTERN DADE-DADE METROPOLITAN-
MAINLAND MONROE-
800 AM EDT TUE MAR 20 2007

...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK MUCH OF THIS WEEK ATLANTIC COAST...
...GULF STREAM SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FEET MID WEEK...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: EAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO
25 MPH WILL CREATE A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION. NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS WERE REPORTED ON MONDAY. SWIMMING
IS NOT ADVISED DUE TO THE DANGER POSED BY RIP CURRENTS. FOLLOW
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL LIFEGUARDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

WITH A LARGE, STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE
REGION AND REMAINING IN PLACE, AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF INCREASED
RIP CURRENT RISK IS LIKELY AT THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES INTO
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
SWIMMERS ARE URGED TO STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST STATEMENTS AND
FORECASTS ISSUED DAILY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CONCERNING
THE RIP CURRENT RISK. SWIMMING IS NOT RECOMMENDED DURING PERIODS
OF HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK...AND SWIMMERS SHOULD FOLLOW THE WARNINGS
AND ADVICE OF LOCAL LIFEGUARDS.

GULF STREAM SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FEET THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE PERSISTENT STRONG EASTERLY FLOW OF AROUND
20 MPH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY CONTINUE AS A RESULT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

FOR MORE INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
MIAMI WEBSITE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIAMI.

STRASSBERG/TINGLER