By Saturday Afternoon, Jan. 20th, a huge storm over the entire Gulf of Alaska had developed to 960 MB.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AJK wrote it up.
By Saturday Afternoon, Jan. 20th, a huge storm over the entire Gulf of Alaska had developed to 960 MB. The strong associated front moved onto the SE Alaska Coast early Sunday Morning, Jan. 21st.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Juneau, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 20, 6:00 AM AKST, 9 hours earlier.
SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SAT JAN 20 2007
.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...LARGE UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL MOVE ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
LIKELY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND YAKUTAT.
IMPRESSIVE CLOUD SHIELD CONTINUES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF AND THE ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION
AND MOVEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE SHORT RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES WITH THE DEPTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS
FORECAST WILL LARGELY USE THE GFS-40.
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY TIGHT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS SHOULD STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW AND THE ACCOMPANYING
BAROCLINIC ZONE MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THE
FRONT MOST RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLE.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH FAIRLY RAPIDLY ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA.
THE HEAVIEST SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL AS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF ZONE 29. COLD
AIR WILL BE SLOWER TO ERODE OVER INTERIOR PARTS OF ZONES 18 AND
19 SO SNOW WILL LAST LONGER THERE. THE YAKUTAT ZONE WILL LIKELY
SEE VERY HEAVY SNOW BEFORE THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOP AND BECOME
MORE SOUTHEAST AT WHICH TIME...SNOW SHOULD BECOME RAIN.
.LONG RANGE...MODELS AGAIN DIVERGING STARTING IN THE MID RANGE
FORECAST PACKAGE. ALL SEEM TO AGREE ALONG THE LINES OF A TRAILING
WAVE ON THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SPREAD ACROSS SOMEWHERE GENERALLY
ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PANHANDLE REGION MONDAY...BUT LOCATION
AND TIMING ARE A LITTLE DIFFERENT. ALSO A SECOND DEVELOPING
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS RIGHT NOW
BEING SHOWN WITH VARIOUS LOCATIONS AND DEPTHS. AT THIS TIME
SINCE CURRENT GRIDS FALL WITHIN THE RANGE SOLUTIONS WILL MAKE
LITTLE IN WAY OF PATTERN CHANGES TO MID AND LONG RANGE SITUATION.
THERE FORE AM NOT EXPECTING TO SEE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE
LATER FORECAST PERIODS. HAVE WORKED ON SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
PRECIPITATION FIELD AND TEMPERATURES.
IN THE LONG RANGE AM NOT SEEING A MAJOR PATTERN SHIFT NEXT
WEEKEND AT THE EARLIEST AS THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS
THROUGH THEN.
.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HEAVY SNOW WARNING 3 PM TO MIDNIGHT AKZ017-019
HEAVY SNOW WARNING 6 PM TO NOON SUN AKZ029
SNOW ADVISORY 6 PM TO 3 AM SUN AKZ018
WIND ADVISORY 3 PM TO 9 PM AKZ022
WIND ADVISORY 3 PM TO MIDNIGHT AKZ023-027
WIND ADVISORY 6 PM TO MIDNIGHT AKZ019>021-024>026
WIND ADVISORY 6 PM TO 3 AM SUN AKZ028
WIND ADVISORY 6 PM TO 6 AM SUN AKZ029
WIND ADVISORY MIDNIGHT TO 9 AM SUN AKZ017
MARINE...STORM WARNING PKZ052
GALE WARNING PKZ022-036-041>043-051
SCA PKZ011>013-021-031>035-053
MLR - BMB1 heavy snow, 1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Haines Customs (Elevation 820 FT) CO-OP measured 14.0 inches of new snowfall for 24 hours ending 0700 AKST on Sunday, 1/21. Analyses indicate that this entire snow event was during the previous Saturday Night.
Yakutat NWS WSO ASOS (PAYA) had a peak wind of 53 KT at 2103 AKST and a measured a gust to 46 KT at 2253 AKST 1/20. It is well known that wind speeds are at least 10 MPH higher along the beach and in outflow regions of the local rivers and Yakutat Bay. Estimated wind speeds were as high as 65 MPH during this storm. |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2007Every state in 2007This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, January 2007
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 10598, 10600.