Winter Storm in Pennsylvania, February 5 to 6, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
724 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2006

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A BAND OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW HAS BROUGHT SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW TO
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WARREN COUNTY THIS EVENING. THIS BAND SHOULD
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 3-6 HOURS AND HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN PORTIONS OF BOTH NORTHERN WARREN AND MCKEAN
COUNTIES. A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THESE TWO COUNTIES.
MOST OTHER AREAS OF WARREN AND MCKEAN COUNTY WILL SEE PERIODS OF
SNOW WITH GENERALLY 1-3 INCHES.

STRONG WINDS AND SNOW WILL AFFECT THE LAURELS TOO. AN ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT MAINLY FOR THE ELEVATED REGIONS OF CAMBRIA AND
SOMERSET COUNTIES.

BOTH THE 12KM WRF AND NAM SHOW THE LOWERING OF THE INVERSION OVER
NIGHT SUGGESTING SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WILL DIMINISH TOWARD MORNING.

MOST OTHER AREAS OF THE STATE WILL ONLY SEE COLDER TEMPERATURES
AND BLUSTERY WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL
LINGER IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS.

A MORE TYPICAL WINTER DAY...A RARE COMMODITY OF LATE...IS IN
STORE FOR MONDAY.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
(ISSUED 237 PM EST SUN FEB 5 2006)

SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

LOW PRESSURE AT SFC AND ALOFT OVER SRN ONTARIO INCHING NWRD...BUT
GRADIENT WILL STAY UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LITTLE DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR SHOULD ALLOW FASTER WINDS TO MIX/GUST DOWN - ESP ON THE HIGHER
GROUND. CYCLONIC FLOW AND UPSLOPE WINDS WILL KEEP SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHSN GOING FOR THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS.  DOWNWIND OF THEM...LITTLE TO
NOTHING WILL FALL. MOISTURE IS NOT IMPRESSIVE...BUT WEST-FACING
SLOPES IN THE LAURELS MAY STILL GET 2-4 INCHES. LITTLE ELSE WILL
ACCUMULATE FOR MOST PLACES IN THE CWA. BUT...CHANNELLED VORT WILL BE
OVER THE LAURELS TONIGHT AND SHOULD AID IN PRODUCING LIFT. SO...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO RIDE THE ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FOR NOW
IN AREAS THAT IT IS CURRENTLY RUNNING.

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SKY COVER TONIGHT...WITH LOTS OF CLOUDS N/W AND
BIG BREAKS TO EVEN SOME CLEARING IN THE SE.  MINS SHOULD ONLY DROP 5
TO 7 DEGS F FROM CURR READINGS IN THE WEST AND ABOUT 15-20F IN THE
SE...WHERE MIXING SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF THE DEEP END.

THERE COULD BE JUST A WEE BIT LESS CLOUD COVER OVERALL ON
MONDAY...BUT WINDS WILL STAY GUSTY. SHSN WILL BE LIKELY ON WESTERN
TERRAIN...BUT JUST FLURRIES TO NOTHING ELSEWHERE. TEMPS WONT RECOVER
TOO MUCH IN THE NW...WITH MAXES ONLY 5-7F ABOVE MINS UNDER THE
CLOUDS AND EVEN COLDER TEMPS ALOFT.  SE WILL AGAIN HAVE A DECENT (OR
AT LEAST NORMAL-TEMP) DAY.

MONDAY NIGHT...THE GRADIENT FINALLY STARTS TO SLACKEN AND ALL BUT
THE FAR WESTERN ZONES SHOULD CLEAR OUT BY MORNING. TEMPS WILL DIP TO
WITHIN A FEW DEGS OF 20 ALL OVER THE CWA...HELD UP IN WEST BY CLOUDS
AND ALLOWED TO CRASH IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS. WILL ONLY MENTION SCT
SHSN IN THE LAURELS BUT KEEP WITH LIKELIES IN NW FOR MON NITE.
ACCUMS (AGAIN) LOOK NEGLIGIBLE...BUT SNOW WILL FALL FOR MUCH OF THE
TIME FROM NOW UNTIL MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

A RETURN TO WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS A
500 MB TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THE
FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES AND LIMIT PRECIPITATION.
CLOUDS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES POSSIBLE TUESDAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
WITH LITTLE ACTIVITY TO SPEAK OF. A SHORT WAVE WILL DROP THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE WEEKEND SO HAVE INSERTED A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS MAINLY ON SATURDAY.

AVIATION...

IT IS THE RETURN OF THE OLD SONG...VFR EAST AND MVFR TO SCT IFR
IN THE WEST. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND ONTARIO LOW PRESSURE WILL
HOLD LOW-ER CLOUDS IN OVER MOST OF THE AREA...BUT THE DOWNSLOPE
WILL SQUASH MOST CLOUDS JUST AS THEY GET TO THE EAST OF KMDT.
KIPT/KAOO/KUNV WILL BE RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF GETTING A FEW SHSN
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STAY AT LEAST MVFR (AND GENERALLY VFR) FOR
THE FCST PERIOD. OF COURSE...THE WESTERN TAF SITES (KJST/KBFD)
WILL HAVE THE WORST OF IT. THEIR ELEVATIONS AND WESTERN
LOCATION/PROXIMITY TO THE TROF AXIS WILL KEEP THE CLOUDS LOWEST
THERE AND KEEP THE LIKELIHOOD OF SHSN IN FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT.
LITTLE CLEARING OF THE SNOW WILL NEED TO BE DONE...AS THE WINDS
WILL KEEP IT ALL MOVING...BUT THIS MIGHT MAKE FOR SLICK OR ICY
LANDING/TAXI SURFACES.

WINDS WILL STAY BREEZY AND GUSTY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. WINDS
WILL ONLY VEER SLIGHTLY THROUGH 18Z MON...WITH SPEEDS SUSTAINED AT
10-20KTS AND GUSTS UP 35KTS ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR PAZ004-005 UNTIL 9 AM MONDAY.
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FOR PAZ024-033 UNTIL 9 AM
MONDAY.
&&

SHORT TERM...GRUMM/LIPTON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
447 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2006

PAZ006-010>012-017>019-025>028-034>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-061000-
POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-
FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-
SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-
PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
447 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PAZ004-005-024-033-061000-
WARREN-MCKEAN-CAMBRIA-SOMERSET-
447 AM EST SUN FEB 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO ACCUMULATE TODAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING WITH EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ADVISORY AREA BETWEEN 3
AND 6 INCHES. A STRONG GUSTY WIND WILL BLOW FALLEN SNOW REDUCING
VISIBILITY AND CAUSING DRIFTS ACROSS ROADWAYS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS NUMEROUS BY LATER MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.
COLD AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE MIDDLE TO
LATTER PART OF THE COMING WEEK.