Heavy Snow in Alaska, February 5 to 6, 2006

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1100 AM AST SUN FEB 5 2006

.SHORT RANGE...BUSY DAY TODAY AND TONIGHT. FIRST WEATHER FRONT
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS ON THE OUTER
COAST WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY BUT WILL PICK BACKUP AGAIN SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST ONE SO
STRONGER WINDS...THUS HAVE CHANGED WIND WATCH TO WARNING AND ALSO
ADDED THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREA (027).

SNOW THE MAIN PRECIPITIATION FROM THE FIRST FRONT...CHANGING TO
RAIN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION THE PANHANDLE TODAY AND THE
NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RAIN MIXING NORTH
TO THE SOUTHERN LYNN CANAL AND SOUTHERN GLACIER BAY AREAS THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING. WITH SNOW PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHERN LYNN CANAL
REGION AND THE NORTHERN GLACIER BAY AREA....POSSIBLY INCLUDING
INTERIOR PASSES LIKE TAKU INLET SOUTH OF JUNEAU.  CHANGED HEAVY
SNOW WATCH FOR GUSTAVUS AND JUNEAU (20/25) TO SNOW ADVISORYS AND
THE WATCH FOR HAINES SKAGWAY (18/19) AREA TO SNOW WARNING THROUGH
MONDAY. PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LYNN CANAL COULD SEE 1 TO 2 FEET.

SECOND WEATHER FRONT LIFTS THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH THE
FRONT STALLED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLE LIKELY
JUST SOUTH FREDERICK SOUND REGION. ANOTHER DEVELOPING TRAILING
WAVE LOOKS TO BE RUNNING THE FRONT AS THE WAVE DRIVES NORTHEAST
LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO THE SOUTHERN GULF.

.LONG RANGE...THE MEAN UPPER LOW OVER THE BEARING SEA WILL
SLOWLY RETROGRADE WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE NW CONUS TO BUILD OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE WEEKEND. A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL
DRIFT SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS BEFORE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE
BRISTOL BAY AREA BY FRIDAY. THIS LOW ALONG WITH A LEAD UPPER
TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE PACIFIC AND PUMP UP THE UPPER HIGH OVER
EASTERN PACIFIC. AS THE MEAN UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST THE AXIS OF
THE HIGH WILL ALSO SHIFT WEST THIS WEEKEND. THIS KEEP THE STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND PRECIP FROM PAYA WESTWARD.

THE SURFACE LOW RUNNING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE
NORTH PACIFIC WILL LIFT INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO CANADA THAT NIGHT. THE ORIGINS OF
THIS SYSTEM IS FROM 40N SO THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
WARM TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW. MOST AREAS WILL BE ALL RAIN
AND IT COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
INNER CHANNELS AS THE LOW COULD PULL ENOUGH COLD AIR BACK IN FOR
SNOW TO FALL. PAYA MAY NOT SEE THAT MUCH PRECIP AS THE LOW WILL
PASS TO THE EAST OF THEM AND THEY COULD JUST SEE SOME SNOW
SHOWERS. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF AND MIXED PRECIP FOR THE REST.

ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAINS THIS LOW WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING
THROUGH THAT NIGHT. AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO CANADA TUESDAY NIGHT
THE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NORTHERN AREA ESPECIALLY IN
NORTHERN LYNN CANAL.

SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE. THE SHOWERS WILL BE THE STRONGEST IN THE
MORNING BUT BY THE AFTERNOON THEY WILL BE WEAKENING AS THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE PANHANDLE FROM THE
SOUTH ALONG WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP AND THEY COULD BE ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE THAT THE SKIES COULD
CLEAR UP.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE MOVE NORTH OUT OF THE NORTH PACIFIC. IT
LOOKS LIKE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER CANADA SO THE PRECIP
FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL HIT THE COASTAL AREAS AND BRUSH THE INNER
CHANNELS. PAYA WILL SEE THE BRUNT OF THE ACTION AND COULD SEE 1
TO 3 INCHES OF PREICP BY THE TIME THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

OVER THE WEEKEND THE AXIS OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE
WEST AND KEEP MOST THE PRCIP TO THE WEST OF THE PANHANDLE. THIS
WILL MEAN A NICE AND SUNNY WEEKEND AS LONG AS THIS PANS OUT. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD THAT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS BACK TO THE
EAST SUNDAY PAYA WILL HAVE THE FIRE HOSE FROM THE SOUTH POINTED
RIGHT AT THEM SO HEAVY RAIN COULD BE IN STORE.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 017-022-023-027 9 PM TO NOON MON
      ...WINTER STORM HEAVY SNOW 018-019 4 PM SUN TO 6 PM MON
      ...SNOW ADVISORY 017-021-022-024 TO 5 PM SUN
      ...SNOW ADVISORY 020-025  2 PM SUN TO 3 AM MON

MARINE...CURRENTLY STORMS 041>043-051-052 TONIGHT
         CURRENTLY GALES 011-021-022-034>036
         CURRENTLY SMALL CRAFT 012-013-031>033

BMB/ABJ