Hail in North Carolina, June 10, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
235 PM EDT SAT JUN 10 2006

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL WORK ITS WAY TO THE NC/SC BORDER BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE NAM...WRF AND GFS ALL DEVELOP A LIMITED AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE PCPN ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH MOST OF THE PCPN
OCCURRING AROUND 0600 UTC. THE LOW LEVEL JET...WHICH IS ON THE ORDER
OF 20 TO 25 KTS...LOOKS TOO WEAK TO SUPPORT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION...AS DOES THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN GENERAL. FOR
NOW STUCK QUITE CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS SHIFTS POPS WITH LOW CHANCE
POPS ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40...AND SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM ASHEVILLE TO ROCK HILL. THIS WILL ALSO
ACCOUNT FOR SOME CONVECTION THAT MAY CLIP THE NRN MOST ZONES COMING
OUT OF ERN KY AND NE TN.

THE WEAK FRONT WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY 21 UTC THE WRF HAS THE BNDRY LAYER FLOW
OUT OF THE SW ACROSS ALL OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
THERE WILL STILL BE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE POOLED ACROSS THE NC
FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WL
AGAIN BE A BIT STRONGER...BUT STILL ON THE WEAK SIDE (20KTS 0-6KM).
UNLESS THE RESIDUAL BNDRY REMAINS A LITTLE MORE DEFINED THAN SHOWN
BY THE MODELS...WE SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD WITH
ONLY VERY LIMITED CONVECTION OVER THE NC HIGH TERRAIN AND FOOTHILLS.

IT WILL BE A HOT DAY. MOS GENERALLY IS RUNNING IN THE MID 90S ACROSS
THE UPSTATE. TEMPS WL BE A LITTLE COOLER IN THE NRN TIER WHERE THERE
WILL BE MORE CLOUD COVER.

AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF DIGGING UPPER TROUGH...
AND POCKETS OF CONVERGENCE DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...FEEL
QUITE CERTAIN THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME RELATIVELY WIDESPREAD BY
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON W/IN THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS EAST TENN.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN MOVE INTO THE NC MNTNS BY SUN EVENING...SO
POPS HAVE BEEN RAMPED UP TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY. THE QUESTION THEN
BECOMES HOW LONG WILL CONVECTION PERSIST AFTER SUNSET. IT APPEARS
THAT THE STRONGEST SHEAR FOR PROMOTION OF CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA...WHILE FORCING MAY NOT BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TOO LONG AFTER
SUNSET. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN RATHER LOW POPS EAST OF THE MNTNS
TOMORROW NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH IN
RESPONSE TO AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER WEST/NW
FLOW AND CONTINUED LACK OF STRONG SHEAR TO PROMOTE ORGANIZATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO LIMIT COVERAGE TO SCATTERED...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE MNTNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS EASTERN TROUGH CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY MON NIGHT AND TUE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE
DEVELOPING TROUGH SHOULD ALSO ACT TO SHUNT THE EFFECTS OF T.D.
1/T.S. ALBERTO WELL EAST OF THE CWFA TUE AND WED. OTHERWISE...THE
OVERALL PATTERN SHOULD ACT TO KEEP TEMPS WITHIN REASONABLE TOLERANCE
OF CLIMATOLOGY FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. BY LATE NEXT WEEK...THE
MODELS HINT THAT THE MASSIVE CENTRAL CONUS RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO OOZE
EAST AS IT WEAKENS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN OF MID-TO-LATE
SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS BY DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION...
EXPECT A GENERALLY WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS. THIS PRESENTS A PROBLEM AT KCLT. LOOKING AT THE
TDWR...WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS HAVE BACKED TO ABOUT 270
DEGREES...BUT WRF AND RUC MODELS IMPLY THAT THEY SHOULDN/T BACK ANY
MORE THAN THIS. WINDS MAY GET AS HIGH AS 8 OR 9 KNOTS...BUT ON
AVERAGE THINK THEY WILL AVERAGE AROUND 6 KTS AT KCLT. BY LATE
EVENING...WINDS AT KHKY AND KCLT SHOULD TURN OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND
A WEAK COLD FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
COULD FORM ON THE FRONT AND AFFECT EITHER SITE...BUT CHANCES ARE TOO
SLIM TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF. BY LATE MORNING TOMORROW...WINDS WL TURN
BACK OUT OF THE SSW AT THESE SITES. UPSTATE TAFS ARE MUCH EASIER
WITH A GENERAL LIGHT WSW FLOW AND NO CHANCE OF PCPN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. KAVL FLIRTS WITH THEIR CROSSOVER TEMPERATURE OVERNIGHT...BUT
THINK THERE WL BE ENOUGH HIGH CLOUDS BY MORNING TO KEEP VSBY IN THE
VFR RANGE.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MCAVOY/LANE
LONG TERM...LANE
AVIATION...MCAVOY

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