Heavy Rain in Florida, June 10 to 14, 2006

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
818 PM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006

...RAIN IN THE OFFING?...

.UPDATE...THE THUNDERSTORM THAT PROVIDED MORE THAN AN INCH OF
RAIN TO PORTIONS OF LEE COUNTY IS BEGINNING TO FADE...WHILE OTHER
LESSER SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG BOUNDARIES TO THE NORTHEAST
ARE JUST ABOUT KAPUT. ELSEWHERE...SKIES ARE SUNNY AND TEMPERATURES
ARE ON THEIR WAY DOWN FROM A HOT...BUT DRY...AFTERNOON. MANY AREAS
SURPASSED 95 DEGREES...INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL
COUNTIES.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS FOR THE OVERNIGHT...WITH
TEMPERATURES RIGHT AROUND NORMAL ONCE AGAIN (MID 60S COOLER
LOCATIONS TO LOWER OR MID 70S URBAN CENTERS AND NEAR THE COAST).
SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE MORE OF THE SAME...BUT WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION THREAT FROM TAMPA BAY
SOUTHWARD AS THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE TROPICS BEGINS
TO APPROACH.

AND THEN IT GETS INTERESTING. SATELLITE IMAGES AND FALLING SURFACE
PRESSURES ALL POINT TO A DEVELOPING TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE...A PANCAKE 500 MB RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AT THE SAME
TIME...WESTERLIES CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTH THAN NORMAL FOR MID
JUNE...EXTENDING SOUTH OF 35 DEGREES NORTH. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT
THE DEVELOPING WAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. WHERE...WHEN...AND IF IT MOVES THEREAFTER REMAINS
QUITE UNCERTAIN. AS DOES THE LEVEL OF STRENGTHENING.

ALL THIS SAID...WHAT APPEARS CERTAIN IS THAT AT LEAST THE BULK OF
THE SUNCOAST SHOULD SEE A SHARP RECOVERY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND...LIKELY CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WOULD BE MUCH WELCOMED BY MANY IN THE PARCHED WEST/CENTRAL
FLORIDA IN THE FORM OF MORE FREQUENT...AND LOCALLY
TORRENTIAL...RAINS. OF COURSE...THIS BEING FLORIDA THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING ESPECIALLY IF A SHEAR ZONE
PARKS ACROSS THE STATE PROVIDING EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

AND...BEYOND THE 5 DAY PERIOD...MODELS ARE HINTING AT A RETURN TO
THE PATTERN WEVE BEEN IN...WHICH IS A RE-FORMATION OF THE FAIRLY
DEEP (FOR JUNE) EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND MORE DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS IN FLORIDA.

THE ONLY THING USUAL ABOUT THIS PATTERN IS THE UNUSUAL - IN
OTHER WORDS...THE TRUE RAINY SEASON SETUP HAS STILL NOT ARRIVED.

STAY TUNED...

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE WATERS MEANS ANOTHER
NIGHT OF GLASSY CONDITIONS FOLLOWED BY ONE MORE DAY OF LIGHT WINDS
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. SATURDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND WILL
HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION...AND TRACK...OF THE DEVELOPING
CARIBBEAN WAVE. CURRENT WIND FORECAST FROM SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
IMPLIES A FAIRLY ROBUST SYSTEM WITH AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS. NO CHANGES PLANNED IN THE SUNDAY-TUESDAY PERIOD FOR
NOW...WILL DEFER TO LATER SHIFTS TO REEVALUATE THE
TIMING/LOCATION/STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...YET ANOTHER RED FLAG DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...GENERALLY FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA EAST AND NORTH AS VERY
DRY AIR MIXED TO THE SURFACE AND WITH STRONG ADIABATIC COMPRESSION
HUMIDITY FELL INTO THE MID 20S FOR SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THE TONGUE
OF THE DRY AIR WHICH EXTENDED FROM EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH THROUGH
POLK COUNTY AND NORTHWARD TO CITRUS COUNTY.
IRONICALLY...HIGHER DEW POINTS REACHED INTO LEVY COUNTY WHERE
HUMIDITY REMAINED GENERALLY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY MAY ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE FOR A MARGINAL RED FLAG
EVENT...THIS TIME NORTH OF TAMPA BAY WHERE THE HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. ONCE AGAIN...WILL SUGGEST THE NEED FOR
AN EARLY MORNING WARNING TO THE ONCOMING SHIFT BUT WILL NOT CHANGE
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MUGGY CONDITIONS SHOULD COVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY SUNDAY...WHICH
ALONG WITH INCREASED AFTERNOON RAIN POTENTIAL SHOULD FINALLY KILL
THE NEED FOR WARNINGS...AT LEAST FOR A FEW DAYS ANYWAY.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM UPDATE...88/BSG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
518 AM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-091530-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSBOROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DE SOTO-CHARLOTTE-LEE-
518 AM EDT FRI JUN 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA AND WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

DRY AIRMASS REMAINS ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH CRITICAL LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER LEVY...SUMTER AND PORTIONS OF POLK COUNTY. A
RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND UNTIL 8 PM
EDT FOR THESE COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR THE
RAPID SPREAD OF WILD FIRES. AVOID OUTDOOR BURNING ACTIVITIES.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER TODAY MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS. ANY OF THESE STORMS COULD BRIEFLY
BRING GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

DRY AIR CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY...WITH LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY DURATION OF 1 TO 3 HOURS OVER INTERIOR
SECTIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL INCREASE THE RISK FOR RAPID SPREAD
OF WILD FIRES. PLEASE USE EXTREME CAUTION WITH OUTDOOR BURNING
ACTIVITIES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOONS AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
IS EXPECTED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT MAY FORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.