Hail in Nebraska, June 10, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
915 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...UPDATE JUST SENT TO ADJUST POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE MORNING. INCREASED COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST WHERE
ENHANCED SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS COMBINING WITH LIFT AHEAD OF
SHORTWAVE OVER EASTERN COLORADO TO HELP SUSTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. DECREASED COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE CWA. ALSO SLIGHTLY TWEAKED SKY
COVER AND DEWPOINTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 313 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006)

DISCUSSION...MAIN PROBLEMS SURROUND RAIN CHANCES NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY. KUEX WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. APPEARS THERE WILL BE TWO FAVORED AREAS FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE FIRST AREA IS ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE
REMNANTS OF HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF
THE 850 MB FRONT. THE SECOND AREA IS IN THE SOUTH CLOSER TO A
SURFACE TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVE. BY THIS AFTERNOON...THINK MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH...HOWEVER WILL HANG ONTO A SMALL
POP...WITH THE HIGHER CHANCES IN THE SOUTH IN PROXIMITY OF A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TOUGH WITH A LARGE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED DUE TO THE BOUNDARY. CURRENTLY AM
PLANNING TO USE A BLEND OF THE 12Z GFS AND NAM FOR MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WHICH GIVES AROUND 70 IN THE NORTH...TO NEAR 90 IN
THE SOUTH.

CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD
GIVE THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT WITH LESSER CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST. THE SOUTH AND WEST
PORTIONS OF THE CWA SHOULD ALSO BE THE FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR ANY SEVERE
WEATHER TONIGHT SINCE IT IS CLOSER TO THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND
850-700 MB THETA/E RIDGE WHICH SHOULD HELP FEED CONVECTION MOVING
OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS.

MAY NEED TO LINGER A SMALL POP INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER EXPECT MUCH OF SUNDAY TO BE DRY. THERE COULD
BE MORE HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY
EVENING...BUT NOT SURE IT CAN MAKE IT THIS FAR EAST SUNDAY NIGHT SINCE
IT WILL BE MOVING INTO LESS FAVORABLE MOISTURE AND THE LOW LEVEL
JET IS MORE FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. DID NOT ALTER POPS ON
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH 850 MB THETA/E ADVECTION INCREASING ACROSS
THE AREA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

KB/KING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
514 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
111200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
514 AM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 6 PM
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HEBRON.
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...AND HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING....WITH
MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 6 PM TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM LEXINGTON TO HEBRON.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)