Hail in Missouri, June 10, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
355 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

.DISCUSSION...
IT IS THE WAITING GAME AT THIS POINT. THE RATHER STG QSTNRY FRONT
EXTENDS FROM NR THE OH RVR WNW THRU SRN IL...BI-SECTING THE STL
METRO AREA...TO THE NORTH OF KCOU TO JUST NORTH OF KMCI. MOISTURE
HAS POOLED ALONG THIS BNDRY...AND THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG SFC HEATING HAS RESULTED IN VERY
UNSTABLE CONDS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BNDRY. SBCAPES ARE AOA 3000
J/KG AND THE STG SFC HEATING HAS REDUCED CIN TO BLO 25 J/KG ALG
THE BNDRY FM NR KCOU INTO SW IL. HI RES STLT IMAGERY IS SHOWING
ENHANCED CU IN THIS REGION AND THIS MAY BE THE GENESIS REGION FOR
ONE BATCH OF STG-SVR STORMS. ALSO EXPECTING ADDITIONAL STORMS TO
DEVELOP IN NW MO ALONG THE BNDRY AND IN ADVANCE OF A SHRTWV
MOVING INTO ERN KS ATTM. ALL IN ALL...EXPECTING A VERY ACTIVE
NIGHT SPANNING THE I-70 CORRIDOR WITH SVRL STG-SVR MCSS TRAVERSING
THE REGION. A BROAD SWLY LLJ PROVIDING FORCING AND FEEDING UNSTBL
AIR INTO THE FRONTAL ZONE SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR CONTD UPWIND
CONVECTIVE GROWTH...AND TRAINING ALONG THE BNDRY. INCREASINGLY
MOIST AIR AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AOA 4KM ARE FAVORABLE FOR
HIGH RAFL RATES. THUS THIS COMBO OF HIGH CONVECTIVE RAFL RATES AND
PROLONGED HEAVY RAFL VIA TRAINING POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING. A FFA HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH THIS PACKAGE.

RAIN COOLED AIR AND BLDG HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH WILL FORCE THE
BNDRY SOUTH TNGT AND INTO SRN MO AND SRN IL BY DAYBREAK ON SUN.
THE LATEST GUID CONTS TO SHOW SUPPORT/FRCG FOR ELEVATED SHRA/TSRA
ON SUNDAY FROM I-70 SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND
THUS HAVE BUMPED UP THE POPS A BIT. EARLY ON IN THE MORNING THIS
CUD BE A CONTINUATION OF THE EXPECTED ACTIVITY TNGT AND EVENTUALLY
SUN MRNG NEW GROWTH IN THE COOL SECTOR. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
EVENTUALLY SINK TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA ON SUN NGT WITH HI PRES
BLDG INTO THE REGION. THE GUID...SPCLY GFS IS SHOWING QUITE A BIT
OF POST-FRONTAL CLOUDINESS AND IT IS HARD TO ARGUE AGAINST IT IN
LIGHT OF THE CLOUDS ACRS IA AND NRN IL. THE NEW FCST HAS MORE
CLOUDS THAN BEFORE BUT IS NOT QUITE AS PESSIMISTIC AS THE
GFS...WITH IMPROVING CONDS ON MON.

AS FIRST ADVERTISED YDA...UPR TROFG IN THE ERN U.S. IS FCST TO BE
MORE PRONOUNCED NEXT WEEK MAINTING SFC HI PRES THRU THE MS VLY.
THIS HAS LEAD ME TO BACK AWAY FROM THE PRVS POPS AND GO WITH A
MAINLY DRY FCST WITH NEAR SEASONABLE DAYTIME TEMPS AND MINS A BIT
BLO NORMAL. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH LATE WED NGT-THURS FOR THE
RETURNING WARM FRONT AND ELEVATED MOISTURE RETURN FOR PCPN
CHANCES...HOWEVER ATTM KEPT POPS IN THE SILENT 20 RANGE. WARMING
TEMPS EXPECTED BY WEEKS END AS THE TROF DEPARTS AND UPR RIDGING
BLDS THRU THE MS VLY.

GLASS
&&

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18Z TAFS...
FRONT BISECTING THE CWA AT THE MOMENT...ALIGNING ITSELF PARALLEL
TO INTERSTATE 70. LOOK FOR SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY. A CONTINUED THREAT OF RAIN...POSSIBLY
HEAVY...OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE BROAD LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INTERSECT STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF
THE EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE FRONT AND SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTH.

CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS ABOVE 60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR AUDRAIN-BOONE-
     CALLAWAY-COLE-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-MONITEAU-
     MONROE-MONTGOMERY-OSAGE-PIKE-RALLS-ST. CHARLES-ST. LOUIS-
     ST. LOUIS CITY-WARREN.

IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR BOND IL-CALHOUN IL-
     CLINTON IL-FAYETTE IL-GREENE IL-JERSEY IL-MACOUPIN IL-
     MADISON IL-MARION IL-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY IL-ST. CLAIR IL-
     WASHINGTON IL.

&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
303 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-111200-
ADAMS IL-AUDRAIN-BOND IL-BOONE-BROWN IL-CALHOUN IL-CALLAWAY-
CLINTON IL-COLE-CRAWFORD-FAYETTE IL-FRANKLIN-GASCONADE-GREENE IL-
IRON-JEFFERSON-JERSEY IL-KNOX-LEWIS-LINCOLN-MACOUPIN IL-MADISON-
MADISON IL-MARION-MARION IL-MONITEAU-MONROE-MONROE IL-MONTGOMERY-
MONTGOMERY IL-OSAGE-PIKE-PIKE IL-RALLS-RANDOLPH IL-REYNOLDS-
SHELBY-ST. CHARLES-ST. CLAIR IL-ST. FRANCOIS-ST. LOUIS-
ST. LOUIS CITY-STE. GENEVIEVE-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WASHINGTON IL-
303 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP THIS EVENING ALONG A STATIONARY
BOUNDARY THAT IS ORIENTATED FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THESE CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE REPEATEDLY ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WHICH WILL LIE PARALLEL TO INTERSTATE 70...LEADING TO AN
ENHANCED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL
MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...ENDING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ALL SEVERE WEATHER REPORTS AND FLASH
FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

CVKING