High Wind in California, April 16, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAS VEGAS NV
300 PM PDT SUN APR 16 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEVADA TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER THE MAIN WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN AND MOHAVE DESERT TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. BY TUESDAY AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TROUGH PUSHING ONTO THE WEST COAST CONTINUES TO BE
MOISTURE STARVED THIS FAR SOUTH. NAM/GFS PUSH NEXT SHORT WAVE ACROSS
MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF NEVADA...HOWEVER ENOUGH OROGRAPHICS/
DYNAMICS TO KEEP MENTION OF ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA/NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. MAIN IMPACT AS TROUGH SHIFTS EAST HOWEVER
WILL BE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. WRF 4KM/NAM/GFS SHOWING JET
NOSING INTO THE SOUTHERN SIERRA AROUND 00Z MONDAY. WRF 4KM ALSO
SHOWS MAIN WIND EVENT FOR EAST SLOPES BTWN 03Z-12Z WITH POSSIBLE
HIGH WINDS INTO THE OWENS VALLEY AT THAT TIME...THUS WILL CONTINUE
TO KEEP HIGH WIND WARNING GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. STRONGEST WIND
REPORT SO FAR IS 52 MPH AT THE 4700 FOOT LEVEL. WINDS ARE ALSO A
CONCERN ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT AS JET PUSHES IN AND TROUGH MOVES
EAST. BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW A BROAD BAND OF 60KT WINDS AT 700MB ACROSS
SAN BERNARDINO/CLARK/LINCOLN COUNTY AROUND 12Z MONDAY...THEN
DECREASING FROM THE WEST BY 15Z MONDAY AS TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS OVER
WESTERN UTAH BY 18Z MONDAY AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS OVER
THE CWA BY 00Z TUESDAY.  FOR NOW APPEARS THAT WINDS WILL GENERALLY
STAY WITHIN ADVISORY CRITERIA CWA WIDE AND WILL ISSUE ADVISORIES
WITH AFTERNOON PACKAGE...HOWEVER WILL NOT BE SURPRISE IF LOCALIZED
HIGH WIND CRITERIA IS HIT OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS AS SYSTEM PASSES.
BY TUESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW...WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE TO BE OVER THE CWA
FOR MILD CONDITIONS. GOOD MIXING TODAY ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO WARM
5-10 DEGREES OVER THAT OF SATURDAY HOWEVER...WITH TROUGH PASSAGE/
NORTHWEST FLOW LOOK FOR 5-10 DEGREES OF COOLING ON MONDAY AND THEN
WARMING AGAIN ON TUESDAY UNDER SHORT WAVE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...WEAK TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO UNDERCUT WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE IMPACT
ON AREA WEATHER OTHER THAN INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVER MAINLY THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. A SHARP TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT BRINGING INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...BREEZY AND
WARM CONDITIONS TO THE CWA FRIDAY. MORNING MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT FORMING A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST NEAR MONTEREY
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVING IT TO JUST WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION BY
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD PLACE THE LOW FORECASTED POSITION FAR
ENOUGH WEST THAT THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA WOULD TAKE THE BRUNT
OF THE MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING LEAVING ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE NW CWA AND THEN MAINLY THE
SIERRA. LARGE UNCERTAINTY THEN ENTERS THE PICTURE AFTER THAT WITH
MODELS TRYING TO DEVELOP A DOUBLE CLOSED LOW PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE GFS FORECASTS
ONE LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WITH A SECOND LOW OVER
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON. THE ECMWF HAS NEARLY THE SAME PATTERN BUT THE
SOUTHERN LOW IS MUCH FURTHER NORTH NEAR RENO WITH THE NORTHERN LOW
ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE US/CANADIAN BORDER. THIS WOULD HAVE A LARGE
IMPACT ON WHERE SHOWERS WOULD FORM. REGARDLESS...THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE QUITE UNSETTLED WITH COOLER...BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND POSSIBLY A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
&&

.AVIATION...STRONG...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AREA WIDE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. DOWNSLOPE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SIERRA WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH INTO THE OWENS VALLEY.

TAFS AND TWEBS ADEQUATELY DESCRIBE EXPECTED WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
AREA TERMINALS. SEE TAFS FOR KLAS... KVGT... KDRA... KBIH...
KDAG...KEED.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.
&&

.VEF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NV...WIND ADVISORY FOR EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
      ALL ZONES.
.AZ...WIND ADVISORY FOR EARLY TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
      ZONES 1 AND 3.
.CA...HIGH WIND WARNING ZONE 26 THROUGH 8 AM MONDAY.
      WIND ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT ZONES 27 AND 28.

JENSEN/SALMEN

HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/LASVEGAS