Flash Flooding and Hail in Indiana, April 16 to 17, 2006

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
219 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LOW WERE LOCATED ACROSS IA AT 18Z.
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SURFACE LOW INTO CENTRAL IN...NEAR
INDIANAPOLIS. PREVIOUS ELEVATED CONVECTION HAD DIMINISHED...BUT
RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED STORMS DEVELOPING QUICKLY ACROSS ILLINOIS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST FOCUS IS ON PRECIPITATION AND SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT.

MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL USE A BLEND.

WARM FRONT MAY LIFT A LITTLE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO PASS ACROSS SOUTWESTERN FORECAST AREA /FA/
DO NOT SEE FRONT GOING MUCH FARTHER NORTH. THIS WARM FRONT WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE STORMS INTO THIS EVENING. WELL NORTH
OF THE WARM FRONT EXPECT LARGE HAIL TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT AS
CONVECTION WILL BE MORE ELEVATED. HEAVY RAIN ALSO A CONCERN HERE
AS WELL WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT OVER THE FRONT. WILL
HIGHLIGHT HEAVY RAIN POSSIBILITY IN GRIDS/ZFP. SOUTH OF THE FRONT
WHERE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE SURFACE BASED DAMAGING WINDS ALSO
BECOME MORE PROBABLE. IN ADDITION...WITH SURFACE LOW
APPROACHING...TORNADO THREAT INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHWEST FA AND
NEAR THE WARM FRONT. SPC HAS PUT SOUTHWESTERN FA IN MODERATE RISK
WHICH LOOKS GOOD. FOR ENTIRE FA WILL HIGHLIGHT SEVERE THREAT IN
GRIDS/ZFP. WILL HIT POPS HARD AS MOST OF FA SHOULD GET MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES...MOS GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR
AND LOOKS GOOD WITH SOME COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT
AFTER SURFACE LOW PASSES.

ON MONDAY DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SCOUR
OUT THE CLOUDS AND ALLOW SUNSHINE. COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR
THOUGH AND SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE 60S. MOS GUIDANCE RELFECTS THIS AND LOOKS GOOD.

DRY WEATHER THEN CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF TUESDAY NIGHT
AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES OVER.

ANOTHER UPPER LOW MOVES INTO IA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A SURFACE
FRONT WELL AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO
THE FA...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS LATE TUE NIGHT. PREVIOUS GRIDS
REFLECTED THIS AND LOOK GOOD.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

CS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
407 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-172015-
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-
307 PM CDT SUN APR 16 2006 /407 PM EDT SUN APR 16 2006/

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:
DAMAGING WIND
LARGE HAIL
HEAVY RAINFALL

AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST OF CENTRAL INDIANA
TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION:
A WARM FRONT WAS FROM NEAR LAFAYETTE TO NEAR CINCINNATI.
THUNDERSTORMS IN ILLINOIS WILL INTERACT WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TO KEEP A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THROUGH LATER TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
LOW LAND FLOODING MAY RETURN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE WHITE...EAST FORK OF THE WHITE RIVER AND THE WABASH RIVER
BECAUSE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS RADIO FOR FURTHER UPDATES AND TIMING OF THIS
EVENT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE REQUESTS ALL SPOTTERS IN THE WATCH
AREA ACTIVATE AND REPORT ALL SEVERE WEATHER TO THIS OFFICE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH
OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/IND (ALL LOWERCASE)